Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Nasdaq Outlook: 07-NOV-2024Good morning, traders! Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis. Compare my price action insights with your own charts and enhance your trading skills.
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Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!Chart Analysis Summary
In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend.
Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag
The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move.
Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing
The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction.
Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios
Based on Entry Types from your strategy:
High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top.
Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout.
Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns
The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately.
Strategy Application:
Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel.
Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs.
Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations.
Trade Recaps: EURUSD - SHORT, GBPJPY - SHORT, 05/11/2024EU Bias Analysis: Although Price is deeply discounted on the HTF's and the 4H has started trending higher, A shift of 1H structure from a 4H Bearish Order Block presented an opportunity for short positions as price corrected into IRL.
Grade: High Risk
GJ Bias Analysis: Price is trading at a weekly premium and is establishing a 4H bearish trend after a break to the downside and correction higher, pending a continuation lower. Short entries aligned with the current 1H bearish range and entry confirmation was received after a TBL sweep and 15M distribution lower.
Grade: Low Risk
COUNTER-TREND TRADING...SAFE OR RISKY?....EURCAD LIVE EXAMPLEWhat is going on everybody! Hope you are having an amazing weekend so far! Just wanted to come on here and speak a little bit about one of my favorite trading subjects which is counter-trend trading! I personally do counter-trend trading as one of my trading strategies so I wanted to come on here and share a real life example of some things I look for and the mentality behind trading against the current trend of price
Hope you guys enjoy! Please boost and follow my page for more breakdowns! Appreciate you all!
Cheers!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - There's A Problem...On the 29th Oct 2024, you would expect a blow out top, sweeping all time highs, running on all time highs whilst maintaining a strong bullish closure going into the ending of the week but what we are seeing right now is a bullish shooting star formation with the candle body currently under the previous 2 weeks highs. This signifies weakness in bullish momentum, especially if price closes this way on Sunday.
Relief retracement back down to $65,000, even if it's a manipulated spike down to that region does not seem far fetched.
Gold (XAUUSD) - Is $3,000 Per Oz Possible In 2024?There is growing sentiment for gold to reach $3,000 per oz, with the market peaking @ $2,790 current all time highs.
Minor retracements is healthy in the grand scheme of the bull run and bearish continuation down to the daily fair value gap @ $2,214 - $2,697, taking daily buyside liquidity is a reasonable draw going into next week.
EUR/USD - Will We See Bearish Continuation? Much clearer price action than GBPUSD, with Friday rejecting the weekly order block, closing below the prior days low.
Daily bullish order block up for grabs, aiming for low hanging fruits @ 1.07793 - 1.08069.
Very cautious as the US elections is right around the corner.
GBP/USD - Fickle Market Conditions There will be times where higher probability conditions presents itself in GBPUSD but for now, the market is riddled with high resistance, ever since we have dropped down into a discount below 1.30497.
With the election taking place on the 5th November 2024, next week, i am expecting volatility.