Time For Splunk To Bounce Up?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on May 4, 2021 with a closing price of 119.41.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 120.045 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.1735% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.92% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.0325% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 18.0 trading bars; half occur within 36.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 46.0 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All movement could technically be over after the second bar from signal as the larger green box was breached and followed by a retreat. If this is not the case, it is interesting the close today occurred in line with the bottom of the smaller red box, meaning the drop could be over and a week or two of gains may start as early as the open tomorrow.
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
