Nasdaq: Taking a Break… 😮💨Currently, Nasdaq is taking a break from the exhausting ascent it has realized from the low of wave iv in turquoise. However, we expect the index to activate some more upwards momentum, expanding wave v in turquoise so that a higher top of wave i in orange can be reached. This done, Nasdaq should turn downwards and drop below the support at 13 566 points to develop wave ii in orange. There is a 40% chance, though, that the index could bounce off this mark, finishing wave alt.iv in turquoise instead. In that case, we would expect a delayed expansion of wave alt.ii in orange and thus a delayed drop below the mentioned support line.
Nasdaqindex
Nasdaq: Tough Sledding 🐌🛷Nasdaq is shuffling on, but the going is tough – to coin a phrase. However, we expect the bears to take more action soon! They should drag the index into the orange zone between 12 577 and 12 136 points, where wave ii in orange should end. Afterward, the bulls should take the helm again, inciting Nasdaq to develop wave iii in orange, which should reach about 14 000 points – providing that the support line at 11 806 points remains intact.
Nasdaq Index will be Volatile SidewaysThis year Nasdaq will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 10500-13000 and probably will end around 10000-12500 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow:
NL = FBS - ( TGA + RRP)
NL = Net Liquidity
FBS = Fed Balance Sheet
TGA = Treasury General Account
RRP = Reverse Repo
What happened this year is the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet by selling of their asset or doing some quantitative tightening program, which basically reduce the net liquidity value. However on the other side Treasury is also reducing it general account due to debt limit issue, which actually increasing the net liquidity. So the net value of these two opposing factors will impact Nasdaq value. As a result the net liquidity will remain the same or slightly down through out the year, as the Fed has more impact than Treasury. Other factors need to consider though is the foreign market impact on US stock as EU follows US tightening while CN & JP is on easing policy that will negate downward pressure. As a result Nasdaq will be traded sideways throughout the year. However it will be volatile, because there will be shift of balance from overvalued stocks like TSLA, APPL, etc. to undervalue stocks like META, PYPL, etc. So I expect there will be 20-30% price drop on overvalued stock and 20-30% increase on undervalued stock prices on average.
Honeywell: Into the Honeypot 🍯Honeywell should push its fingers deep into the green honeypot between $194.17 and $178.41, breaking through the support at $196. There, the share should gain new strength by finishing wave 2 in green and turn upwards again. First, it should climb back above $196 and then take off from this mark, aiming for the resistance at $222.56. Once above this level, the course should gather further momentum and continue the ascent.
Walgreens Boots Alliance: Take Your Medicine 💊Walgreens Boots Alliance should take its medicine as the share needs some more strength to make it above the resistance at $42.29. From there, the course should rise into the green zone between $52.38 and $59.29 to conclude wave 3 in green before we anticipate a countermovement. A 38% chance remains, though, that WBA could drop below the support at $32.70 instead, subsequently slipping below the support at $30.39 as well.
Nasdaq: Nas-duck? 🦆Like a (Nas-)duck before the thunderstorm, Nasdaq is facing the ascent we expect in the course of wave iii in orange. The index has been struggling to proceed with the upwards movement for some time – however, appropriate impulses are visible. Now, Nasdaq should climb further northwards to complete wave iii in orange before starting a countermovement into the orange zone between 13 082 and 12 277 points. There, the index should conclude wave iv in orange and subsequently veer upwards again. There is a 40% chance, though, for Nasdaq to drop below the support at 10 636 points. In that case, the index would first develop new lows in the turquoise zone between 10 326 and 9 779 points before rising again.
Nasdaq: Onion 🧅Like an onion, the Nasdaq-chart currently features multiple layers, and the index has processed them all. Hence, there is a 40% chance that it could directly continue the ascent it has already begun and climb above the resistance at 13740 points. However, we rather expect Nasdaq to drop below the support at 10890 points and thus to dive deeper into the blue zone between 11167 and 10043 points, where it should then finish wave (2) in yellow. Afterwards, the index should move upwards, crossing the resistance at 13740 points.
Nasdaq: Banana LeafDid you know just how multifunctional banana leaves are? They can be used for cooking and packaging and to serve dishes, and can also be employed as roof or fence. Nasdaq is currently wrapped in a big green banana leaf between 11734 and 12343 points to finish wave 2 in green. Although this could have already been handled, we still give the index some time as long as it is making use of the green foliage. After wave 2 in green has finally been completed, though, Nasdaq should move upwards, climb above the resistance at 13740 points and head for the upper green zone between 15580 and 16444 points. However, a 45% chance remains that the index could drop below the support at 11479 points, thus triggering furthers downwards movement below the next mark at 11068 points.
NASDAQ NEUTRAL TO BULLISH OUTLOOKNASDAQ closed lower yesterday after negative free cashflow forecast from Micron Technology. But the tight labor market and upper pressure on wages have a big chance of further increasing the inflation. Investors are awaiting the Core CPI figures today, which, if above forecasted, as it often happens this year, will put the index into another bullish movement.
On the technical front, NASDAQ broke the resistance on the falling wedge pattern and the MACD histogram is above 0, indicating possible end of the downturn. On the other hand though, RSI still remains well below the neutral 50 line.
If the bullish pattern continues, the instrument might reach levels of 13 165, but on the other hand if it is a false breakthrough, it might test its previous low at 12 950.
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Nasdaq: Push-Ups 💪How many push-ups can you do? Nasdaq has accomplished several push-ups during the last weeks, and it should keep up this good work. We expect the tech-index to rise into the upper yellow zone between 14044 and 14798 points, where it should finish wave (3) in yellow. Afterwards, it should start a countermovement into the lower yellow zone between 13579 and 13058 points to complete wave (4) in yellow before resuming the overarching ascent. There is a chance, though, that Nasdaq could make a detour through the turquoise zone between 12934 and 12432 points first before heading for the upper yellow zone.
Nasdaq: Dabbling in the Water 💦Nasdaq is looking for refreshment and thus is dabbling in the blue stream between 12317 and 11600 points in the sandy yellow river bed between 12894 and 10501 points. The index should dive a bit deeper into the water now to finish wave v in magenta just below the mark at 12100 points, but it could also decide to leave the river directly. In both cases, Nasdaq should subsequently rise above the resistance at 13583 points to complete wave i in magenta between this mark and the next one at 16569 points. Afterwards, the index should approach 13583 points again to end wave ii in magenta. However, there is a chance that Nasdaq could emerge from the river on the other side and drop below 11600 points.
Nasdaq: First Florets Are Sprouting 🌱🌷Just in time for the start of spring, the nasdaq floret has sprouted upwards from the depths of the orange soil between 12722 and 13948 points and has broken through the crust. We expect it to thrive and prosper further and stretch its leaves up to the resistance at 15152 points. From there, it should have caught enough rays of sunlight to grow even above the next resistance at 16569 points.
However, there is still a 35% chance that nasdaq could wither prematurely and fall down below the support at 12207 points.
The Effect of Regional Conflict on the MarketIn this post, I'll demonstrate the impact of regional conflicts on the market; whether what we're seeing is the beginning of a recession, or a reversal.
I'll be going over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, referring to historical examples of regional conflicts and the impact they had on the market.
War is tragic. I would like to clarify upfront that this post is apolitical. It simply assesses current events and market movements from the perspective of an investor.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Analysis
- With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have seen this bull market’s first correction.
- Many fear that this may simply be a deadcat bounce before further downside, but this once again proves that this event was a case of ’sell on fear, buy on the bullets’.
- Pressure is applied to the financial markets as fear of war starts, and is relieved when the actual conflict starts.
- So contrary to common belief, the beginning of war, as tragic as it is, is a bullish sign for the markets.
- Markets move on surprises, and what’s happening in Ukraine is nothing new or surprising.
- Not only has there been tension building up for the past few weeks, we were aware of such a scenario for the past few years, with Russia’s takeover of Crimea.
- The point is that the more discussions there are about the plethora of probable scenarios and possibilities, the less likely it is for the market to crash when something worse occurs.
- Unless this war spreads to a global scale, which I doubt it will, I think the damage will be regional, and thus unlikely to cause a bear market.
- We’ve seen this through multiple cases in history: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afghanistan War, Iraq War, and the Crimean Crisis.
- This isn’t because armed conflict is good for the market.
- The conflict ending uncertainty is what drives the market upwards.
Conclusion
Headlines, responses from communities online, and fake news can drive short term reactions via sentiment, but it’s important to take a deep breath, and listen to what the market is trying to tell you.
Taking all of this into account, I believe that it’s more likely for us to see a recovery or return to the uptrend sometime later this year, with some turbulence early on. However, remember that the name of the game is to buy when it’s cheap, and sell when it’s expensive. By the time you realize that we’ve returned to a steady, sturdy bull trend without any factors of fear and bearishness to hinder the momentum, it may already be too late to buy cheap. Hence, my preference to buy 1000 shares of $SPY at $430, rather than buying 10 shares at $350.
While my entire long term outlook on the market remains optimistic, it’s important to remember that volatility is unpredictable. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s everlasting either. I anticipate that there’s a high probability that the bull market continues, but volatility will play its role in shaking out the weak hands.
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If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
Nasdaq 100 - Choppy price action continues Nasdaq 100 index grew approximately 10% since its low on 24th January 2022. At the moment, it experiences choppy price action. However, the situation looks less dire for NQ1! than a week or two weeks ago. The daily time frame continues to show bullish developments while the weekly time frame shows mixed conditions. We are turning increasingly bullish on NQ1! which still trades approximately 10% below its ATH value. We think the current valuation is attractive for entry of a long trade, especially with a long-term perspective.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD points to the upside which is bullish, however, it still remains in the bearish area. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. Further, ADX declines which signals weakening of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of RSI of NQ1!. It broke its bearish structure which is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI reversed and now it points to bullish direction. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, however, it also managed to reverse and now it points to the upside. MACD is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. ADX is flat. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance lies at 15 260 USD and short-term support at 14 362.75 USD. Resistance 1 appears at 16 009.25 USD while Support 1 sits at 13 706 USD. Major resistance level is at the all time high value which equals 16 767.50 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Sharp 🪒 drop 📉 on NASDAQ: How i will play today sessionHi guys sharing just my thoughs of my today market gameplan.
Today wil be crucial Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate numbers in conjuction with wednesdays sharp decline in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
The long term unemployed rise sharply:
static.seekingalpha.com
Total payroll growth accelerated sharply immediately after the lockdowns were lifted, but has since slowed. This makes tomorrow's jobs report that much more important. A decrease would be very bad as it would confirm the drop in the ADP report from wednesdays, while also indicating an abrupt change in the underlying economy.
static.seekingalpha.com
So this could be some kind of catalyst of move today and next week.
us100 inverted Head and Shoulders !us100 had a major correction, price dropped exactly 1531 pips in less than a week.
After this big move to the downside there should be a correction to the upside.
we can see that there is inverted HS pattern that indicates the change of the trend.
the uptrend channel was tested to the support.
these are indicating a good opportunity to trade by long.