NIFTY Buy opportunity on solid cyclical patterns.We last looked into the Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) on September 05 (see chart below), when we got an excellent buy on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that quickly hit our 25700 Target:
As you can see, our trading approach was based on the recurring technical patterns (Megaphones) since July 2023. Even though the current wide price action doesn't fit the former Megaphone patters, we can still call for a bottom soon as, not only is the price approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also the 1D RSI is almost on the same oversold (below 30.00) level as 1 year ago (October 26 2023)!
In fact the pattern of September - October 2023 looks very similar to Sep - Oct 2024. The risk of buying here is low while the reward is high, making for a very appealing R/R ratio. As a result, we turn long again, targeting 27400 (+15.67% rise as the previous bullish break-out legs).
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Niftysignals
NIFTY Next buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.We had another success on the Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) on our last buy signal (August 09, see chart below), as we bought after a confirmed rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the index being currently very close to our 25500 Target:
The index continues to follow the a cyclical pattern and this is how we made this previous successful prediction on the 1D MA50. As you can see it was the very same rebound on January 24 2024 (1D MA50 and bottom of the Megaphone) that rose by +6.64% before turning sideways again into a larger (dashed) Megaphone.
We are about to enter this fractal symmetry and potentially initiate a new Megaphone. The former one gave this first buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 again, then on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and finally near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An additional buy signal was when the 1D RSI hit its Support Zone.
As a result we are closing the previous buy now on profit and will wait for the 1D MA50 contact to buy again and target the top of the Megaphone (Higher Highs trend-line) at 25700.
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NIFTY Doing exactly what is expected from it.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) continues to offer us some of the most effective trading opportunities as it continues to replicated the 2023 price action. Last time (June 13, see chart below), it broke as we expected above its Megaphone (imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out) and hit our 24650 Target, making a symmetrical +15.67% rise:
This time we are presented with another buy opportunity as following the recent drop, the index managed to find Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), exactly at the bottom of the short-term Megaphone. This is another remarkable symmetric structure with the January 24 Low. On top of that, the 1D RSI rebounded on its 5-month Support Zone.
That Jan 24 low initiated a slow rise that completed a +6.64% uptrend before the 1D MA50 broke. As a result, we consider this a strong medium-term buy opportunity, with a 25500 Target (+6.64%).
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NIFTY Wait for a 1D MA50 pull-back and buy.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Up since late December 2023 and today it hit the April 10 2024 High. That was a Higher High for the Channel Up and the price immediately got rejected.
Based on the 1D RSI, it may rise some more to its Resistance Zone before getting rejected but this sequence is very similar with the February 02 2024 rejection. Both fractals made clear technical Higher Lows at the bottom of the Channel Up and the February one after the rejection, pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before finding Support and new buyers.
As a result, we are only willing to turn bullish again on the 1D MA50 and then target the Channel's standard target of the 1.382 Fib extension at 23100.
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NIFTY did a MACD Bearish Cross. 1-month correction very likely.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity on November 03 2023 (see chart below) easily hitting our 21000 target and transitioning into a longer term Channel Up:
Right now the index is coming off the strongest 1W red week since October 23 2023, the first pull-back after a series of 4 straight green weeks. This week will complete a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, the first such formation since September 25 2023 and before that, December 26 2022.
Naturally this is a technically bearish pattern and being so rare suggests that it shouldn't be taken lightly, even though we have been on this Channel Up since June 2022. More specifically, those 2 MACD Bearish Cross occurences delivered monthly corrections of -6.75% and -7.45% respectively, so an average of -7% pull-back. Both also hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Channel's last Higher Low.
As a result, assuming a minimum correction of -6.75%, we are now turning bearish on NIFTY, targeting 21100. That may make contact, or at least come very close to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
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NIFTY Hit our long-term target. What's next?The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity last time we looked into it (November 03) and hit on Thursday our 21000 target (see chart below):
We've been receiving a lot of messages on what's next for this index. Well if we turn the Channel Up into the logarithmic scale, we can see that the price is almost on its Top (Higher Highs trend-line). The 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross and the 1D RSI is pulling back aggressively after being extremely overbought at 85.00.
Technically this is a sell signal and even though the shortest decline within the 18-month Channel Up has been -3.74%, we see more similarities with the September 13 2022 top, hence we will aim for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 20500, initially at least, where contact should be made with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), we will short again and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 19300, which will also be a -11.03% decline, similar with the strongest one on March 20 2023.
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NIFTY Excellent long-term buy opportunity.Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the June 17 2022 low and recently has found itself on a correctional 1.5 month wave under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Last week the 1D RSI breached the 30.00 oversold mark and immediately rebounded. It hasn't been that low since June 17 2022, which was the very start of the long-term Channel Up. As a result, those are indeed technically underpriced levels and this Channel Down correction on the RSI resembles the bearish leg of August - September 2022, which stopped before the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and resumed the Channel Up uptrend.
As a result, if the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross (as October 17 2022), it will confirm the oversold bullish reversal signal of the RSI. As long as the 0.5 Fibonacci level (18530) holds, we are bullish on the index, targeting the -0.236 Fib ext at 21000 (which is where the December 01 2022 Higher High was priced). It has to be mentioned that the symmetry of the Channel Up rallies is indeed quite strong.
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NIFTY poised to test its All Time High this week.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) is extending the long-term Channel Up pattern that started after the March 20 2023 Low, when the 16750 Support held. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting for exactly 2 months and this week the technical Higher High and test of the 18890 Resistance (which is the All Time High) should be materialized.
As you see, the similarities between the current Channel Up and that of October - November 2022 as strong. It appears that the price is at the final stage (curve pattern), before the final rally. The 4H RSI break-out above the Lower Highs is another strong resemblance. This trend is invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA200 (target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 18800 for safety, slightly below the Resistance just like the March 20 2023 Low was slightly above the Support.
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