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BTC returns to mean/pivot@19500;Bollinger squeezing for big MoveBTC keeps returning to the pivot line at 19500 which also acts as a support. It is also barely holding the base of the triangle as support. Bollinger Band is squeezing for a big move soon. As for now, the Head & Shoulder pattern neckline is still not yet broken, suggesting much lower prices if the neckline breaks. We just have to wait which way it breaks. If current double support holds, we may be seeing 22k next. If SPY continuous to break below the June low this week after major economic data on Thursday, there is a big chance BTC support will also fail. Then the17k to 16K zone is the next support. Not trading advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by xtremerider8
COTD - 12/04 XAUUSD Revisiting our Chart of the Day from Tuesday, where we took a look at the safe haven asset of Gold. On Tuesday we were seeing Gold catching a bid and trading higher on the back of a softer dollar and investors cycling out of riskier assets and aligning themselves with the risk-off assets. We discussed the longer-term setup of the head & shoulders pattern forming and also the declining trendline that has been capping the asset and causing the lower highs. As we look at it now, the U.S. dollar was on the front foot yesterday and as investors cycle back out of safe-haven assets we can see that Gold meets the declining trend line and fails just as it touches it, we have some support today on the weekly pivot level, but for the time being the original two ideas are still in play as we are yet to see a break of the neckline on the head & shoulders formation or a convincing push above the trendline. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_GoMarkets
Leg D completed on the Weekly... expecting bears to come in hereThose who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks. Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to ride this retrace leg to the downside. Inflation is starting to edge down, the only card we need to be aware of is risk. For those tracking the macro side, via inflation 1225 is the only level in play for bears on this final leg E. There is plenty of room below current levels and we see great value in shorts here. Best of luck to those trading live, please remember to like and comment and keep the support coming. Thanks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
EW ANALYSIS: Risk-Off Sentiment Could Continue; NIKKEI+USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation! As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can already see an a-b-c correction in progress, where wave »c« is still missing, so be aware of a Monday rally towards projected resistance areas, from where we may see another sell-off in the stock market and consequently also in the USDJPY! That said, in the NIKKEI225 futures chart, we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c corection, where 22000 resistance area can be tested, before we may see a sell-off continuation! So, as long as it's trading below 22780 highs, we will remain bearish! If we respect correlations, then it's similar with USDJPY, in which we think that 113 area, specifically 113.25 – 113.35 resistance area can be retested before another sell-off, so while it's trading beneath 114 region, we remain in the bearish mode! Early Monday moves are usually fake, so if we get a Monday rally within projected wave »c«, then this would be a perfect three-wave corrective rise that can be easily covered in the next days, when we expect another sell-off! Trade well! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched. 2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance. 3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least. JPY risks are to the soft side 1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality. 2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above. 3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias. Risks to the view: 1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although risk-off assets on the year are still heavily bid up some 20% even at these levels thus a pull back may be justified - nonetheless for this particular strat trade this is less relevant given the tactical nature Trading Strategy: 1. Sell XAUUSD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although risk-off assets on the year are still heavily bid up some 20% even at these levels thus a pull back may be justified - nonetheless for this particular strat trade this is less relevant given the tactical nature Trading Strategy: 1. Sell XAUUSD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIPGold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day: 1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few weeks. - However the highly correlated safe haven assets look to be showing some divergence/ value by also trading lower. Given im a risk-sentiment bear, I back this view with short SPX and long Gold/ YEN. 2. Also Fed unlikely to hike means USD demand is likely to be parred which puts less pressure on gold, but either way, a hike increases risk-off and will drive gold/ haven demand so it is a win win situation. 3. Statistically gold is also a long after trading lower 5 days in a row which for the past 16yrs of data is a 1/100 chance of having a bullish day for the next day (today). Also on the weekly we are 1.3 deviations lower, with the monthly and quaterly at 0.9sd and 0.7sd lower. 4. Risk here looks to be to the 1300 pivot with topside at 1350, 1370 and 1400 - i personally feel we can see gold bid to 1370 on a SPX to 2000 backdrop, a fed hike would have my bets moving SPX well through 2000.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?SPX 1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks. 2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from here to 2147 - the market will test risk sentiment - if bulls win we will then move higher past 2194 previous highs, and the bull trend continues, but imo 80% most likely bears will win and we will break through 2147 and move to AT LEAST 1990. 3. IMO a daily and weekly close BELOW 2140 means selling is RISK-LESS as given this set up there will be no more bids until we hit 1990 (as shown by the price action and empty/bidless space). - More aggressive sellers will sell here at 2182, risk-free sellers will wait to sell on the weekly close below 2140.
FX:SPX500Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
17
USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes holding their gains/ in the green. - However, at apprx 10am GMT BBC Radio 4 reiterated the 3wk old sentiments from BOJ govenor Kuroda, which downplayed the chance of helicopter money/ took a hawkish tone - which in turn then shifted markets into a mildly strong risk-off rally, with yen falling 150pips straight down and equities failing to hold in the green. Where do we go from here: 1. The easiest thought, with Yen up 1% and gold up 1% is to think "the risk rally/ recovery is materially over, we should start positioning for the material risk-off downtrend that has dominated 2016 and get net short safe havens again" however by steeping away from the fundamental intraday signs for a moment/ looking at the technicals from a macro perspective, there is a promising underlying trend that has developed this past 2wks (since the risk rally began) which MAY mean this is NOT the case. 2. Firstly look at the daily of USDJPY below (my favourite Safe haven indicator of risk sentiment given FX being the fastest asset to process information) and SPX above (my favourite risk-on indicator of risk sentiment due to its nobility) - what do you notice? - For the past 9 trading days (since the risk-recovery started) SPX has traded one day higher, then one day lower EVERYDAY and today seems to be no exception - we are on the lower day. 9-days is particularly enough to be certain but it is definitely something worth thinking about when considering if this is the doom and gloom end of the risk rally or merely an interday correction that the market has been happy with since the rally started. - Correlation at 97% confirms this view - and high correlations are usually markers of a trend (e.g. one up one down) and harder to break so i definitely think this could be an interday trend lower for risk (before resuming higher again tomorrow) - rather than a risk-off reversal. BOJ Kuroda's reiterated comments: 1. Kurodas reiterated comments today from 3wks ago was certainly the driver for the aggressive sell-off however, we have since moved 50-70pips higher than them levels so there is definitely something more macro at play as to why risk is struggling today e.g. the one day trend that has held. Going forward: 1. It will be interesting to see if that pattern continues to hold true e.g. tomorrow is a risk-on day. Though the odds are against it with friday historically being the WORST day for stocks due to end of week book clearing - so before making any moves on Friday it may be even best to wait until Monday to decide if the risk-off sentiment is here to stay before switching your trading sentiment (as i said last weekend) - unless we were to see some aggressive selling off tomorrow e.g. UJ to <104 - this to me would confirm that the risk rally was over and I would turn a net seller of USDJPY and cut my risk holdings - It seems weird that the ECB dovishness was enough to send EUR$ lower (never happens) but not enough to give risk a prop up - so it could well be that the macro trend of 1 up/ 1 down on the daily takes precedent no matter what + the BBC R4 Spat with kurodas comments earlier was just an emphasiser of the already established marco pattern? - Time will tell.
TVC:SPX
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Circle Yellow highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
BREXIT GBP: USE USDJPY AS A RISK-BAROMETER & WAIT FOR LONDON 8AMIndicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1) because of its stability - UJ isn't acting as susceptible to the volatility "noise" - with 4.5x less range; and 2) because as we know UJ is the "safe haven" FX pair which is sold massively when markets are trading risk-off. or risk averse. - How to use UJ for GBP direction: Assuming UJ is the stable measure of risk (which has been true for the past week) it is fair to ALSO assume: 1) A rise in UJ means increased JPY selling which means there is a stronger risk-on attitude in the market as investors shed "safe yen" - buying GBP in the uncertain BREXIT environment IMO is considered the "risk-on" move - SO we can confirm GBP rallies with a rise in UJ 2) Conversely a fall in UJ means JPY buying, which means investors are seeking risk-off/ safer currency plays - selling GBP in the BREXIT uncertainty environment IMO is considered the "risk-off/ low risk" move - SO we can confirm new GBP shorts with a fall in UJ *If you believe that the risk-on/ risk-off moves are the other way round e.g. GBP upside is the low risk play - then you can STILL use UJ as the indicator, just the other way around than above. IMO and logically, GBP lower in this uncertain UK environment is the LOW RISK trade - especially given we traded at 1.46 8wks ago (not much downside is priced at these levels thus GBP moves lower are lower risk) 2. Wait for London open between 8am-10am GMT (4-6 hours from now) - In these past weeks, the London open has been a key catalyst for GBP direction ESPECIALLY on the Sunday-Monday Asia which over as all of the weekend information is priced in for the biggest FX clients in LDN. - Therefore it is prudent NOT to take a position until the big money volatility/ fluctuations/ noise is out of the way otherwise SL's may be susceptible to being hit AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, we may misjudge the market direction/ sentiment (given LDN is the largest FX Flow session). - Several times the market direction and momentum has changed or been confirmed aggressively during the London open 8am-10am GMT so I think this indicator is a vital determinant
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
GBP DOWNSIDE BREXIT POSITIONING & VOLATILITY UPDATEMy FX portfolio currently consists of : - 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed in the attached article). ATM Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility: - GBPUSD ATM IV continues to rally today, despite being in the 2 year 100th percentile, to trade at 19.15% (0.6 up) currently, 1wks 20.5% (up 1.5), 1m 29% (up 0.5) from yesterday, whilst HV continues to trade relatively flat at 10%, with ATR increasing about 10 pips on the week. - This positive divergence in IV and HV means that GU potentiallly has almost 2x as much more volatility to show in its price action - so I expect the market to get much more rangy in the coming weeks, so anyone day trading i advise to leave GBP crosses alone and i advise a MINIMUM SL of 1 ATR which is 150 pips, as IV implies such moves will become less and less uncommon in the coming weeks. Therefore I also suggest only play longer term 2/3wk positions so that the 150pip SL can be justified with 300+pips of upside tp. - GU Risk Reversals on the 1wk increased to -2 (from -1.8) with the 1m trading flat at -8.7, so we can expect further downside in the pair as puts in the nearterm continue to be demanded more so than the calls - which makes sense in this highly volatile and fundamentally short environment. Vol demand - GBPJPY and GBPCHF1wk and 1m risk reversals in the long run are becoming negative at a higher rate/ momentum compare to USD e.g. investors are buying GBPJPY and GBPCHF Puts at an increasingly faster rate than GBPUSD puts (the change of the RR values are increasingly negative more than the GU - The GU RRs are almost already fully priced). Hence, from a future value point of view (since the demand for downside is not outpacing that of GU) we can expect, GCHF and GJPY to in the future fall at a faster rate than GU, which makes sense given the room let until the next support levels. - GJ 1wk and 1m are at -0.9 and -7.4, whilst GCHF are at -1.2 and -5.6 (compared to GU at the above -2 and -8.7), we can see that the put demand for GJ and GCHF still has room to increase until it reaches the levels that GU is trading at hence why I like expressing GJ and GCHF even more so. - Finally, GJ and GCHF HV trade at 19 and 15 respectively. However GJ vols are begging to trade lower, (perhaps indicating the pair is now becoming oversold) and GBPCHF HV is trending higher (indicating that sell side demand may be picking up now that the GJ expression is reaching its fully priced state, after selling off since sunday). This supports my view from my last piece about getting short GBPCHF now vs adding shorts to GU or GJ since they are much more overweight to the downside.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
Fed/Brexit - Risk on vs Risk-off assets, convergence?? :Ssomethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up??? The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009 this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds today we only see 1. Low gold.. missing the other two. This market "confusion" is likely caused by the uncertainty regarding the Fed hike cycle and possible Brexit risks spilling over - Low volume shows people do not want to hold risk - be careful with longs here
FX:SPX500
by QuantumLogicTrading
3