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Oilshort!

Fundamental factors suport oil, but this is temporarilyThe increase in oil that we observed on Tuesday is largely due to news about production problems in Canada and Libya, as well as data on US oil reserves from the API. It's about stopping an oil refinary in Fort McMurray (Canada) due to an accident (a transformetor explosion). According to current information, it will take about a month to repair it. The losses from this stop will amount to 360 K b / d, which is a very serious amount even on a global scale. As for Libya, there is another redistribution of oil control in the country. However, this is not something really new. What is characteristic, the official Tripoli declares its plans over the next 5 years to increase oil production by 2 times, to 2.1 million barrels per day. AND the latest news in favor of local oil growth was the data from the API, according to which crude oil reserves in the US fell by 9.23 million barrels (a record value since September 2016). Despite the more than convincing growth of oil against the backdrop of such news, in our opinion, these events are of the nature of temporary force majeure, therefore we consider them as a momentary factor of influence. But more interesting in terms of strategy news is the information that Saudi Arabia is going to set a record for oil production. Aramco expects to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Recall, in May, the volume of production was 10.03 million barrels per day. That is, we are talking about the appearance of an additional 800K b / d on the market. And this is very, very serious. The last time such volumes Saudi Arabia produced at the height of the race for market share in 2016. That is, the results of the OPEC meeting are already making themselves known. And this is without the latest data from Russia, which was even more serious than Saudi Arabia. Thus, the current price increase is just a gift to those who did not manage to sell oil at $ 70 per barrel (WTI brand). Our position is unchanged - to sell oil. Those who have done this before should be added, and those who did not, can open even with double volumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
Results of OPEC meeting: oil prices fall is almost inevitableOn June 22-23, OPEC met in Vienna. The main issue that was on the agenda was the increase in oil production. Recall, Russia and Saudi Arabia have taken the initiative to increase oil production. In the last report, we reviewed three possible scenarios. Actual results are something between the compromise and the initiative of Russia (production growth of 1.5 million b / d). So, it was decided to increase production by 1 million bbl per day. This, of course, is not a complete refusal from OPEC +, but in general is a very strong negative signal for the oil market. You do not need to be a big expert on the oil market to understand what the sharp increase in supply in the market leads to. Of course, to the drop-in prices on it. The reverse situation was observed after OPEC + reduced production. The price of oil has risen sharply. And we do not see a single reason why this time the basic laws of the economy should fail. Rather, judging by the semi-panic reaction of the opponents of production growth (almost every country has its own opinion on the results of the meeting and the size of the production growth), they suffered a serious defeat. It should be noted that the increase in production is beneficial primarily to Russia and Saudi Arabia, because they can increase it. And countries like Venezuela, Libya, Iran and others have problems with it. As a result, they risk losing market share. Summary. On the oil market are throwen out additional and very serious volumes. We consider this as an excellent occasion for sales.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
The pressure on oil continues and growsThe white strip for oil seems to have ended. Not a day passes without negative news for oil buyers. Last week ended on a rather minor note - the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US rose again (albeit very slightly, but this was the 11th consecutive week of growth) and reached its highest mark since early 2015. That is, American shale continues to grow. As a result, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Energy, the volume of crude oil production in the US increased by 100,000 barrels a day to a record value of 10.9 million b / d last week. At the same time in the OPEC +camp, on the contrary, reigns disorder and vacillation. The question of extending OPEC + in the current format for 2019 is no longer worth it. By and large, it has already been resolved - at least the format will change in favor of increasing oil production, and as a maximum the contract signers will quarrel among themselves and the agreement will cease to exist altogether. So, on the agenda now is the question of how much will increase the production. This question is no longer: do not increase it or not. And this is a very important shift in emphasis. That is, we have shifted from the stage of "negation" towards the "adoption" stage. Yes, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela threaten to block the initiatives of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but this is the battle of David with Goliath, and the biblical miracle in this case is not expected. So we should expect for the growth if the oil production. And from the side of Russia concrete figures have already been sounded - an increase in production of 1.5 million barrels a day. In fact, this is a waiver from OPEC + (recall, within the framework of the agreement, production was cut by 1.8 million barrels). Given that the growth in oil production in the US and so almost leveled off the efforts of OPEC +, now the bulls for oil will have very tough times. In connection with such a fundamental background and moods on the market, we continue to recommend mid-term sales of oil.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
8
Several arguments in favor of medium-term oil salesGiven the nature of the news that has recently come out on the oil market, we believe that it's time to seriously talk about mid-term oil sales. This is a reduction to $ 40 per barrel and lower. What can be the basis for such a movement? Here are a few key arguments: 1. Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their oil production (the Saudis have increased their production to the highest level since October 2017 - 10.03 million barrels per day, while Russia has already reached its maximum in the past 14 months). What de facto means a rejection of OPEC +. Recall, it was OPEC + ensured the growth of oil from $ 30 to $ 70. More clarity will appear on the results of the OPEC meeting, which will be held on June 22-23. In the meantime, there are rumors that Russia plans to offer OPEC and its allies to return to production levels in October 2016 and to restore production within three months 2. Oil production in the US came close to the level of 11 million barrels a day. The US is actively increasing exports to Asian countries China, taking there the market share from Russia and Saudi Arabia. The volume of US oil sold abroad reached a record 2.57 million barrels per day in May. 3. Trump urged oil producers to increase production to avoid excessive price pressure on the US economy and the world as a whole. 4. More than half of the new electricity in the US, in 2018 was provided by solar energy. That is, alternative sources have already come to replace the energy of hydrocarbons. And this is a very serious factor in favor of the fact that the current models predicting the demand for oil are based on incorrect assumptions. By the way about forecasts of demand for oil. It's no secret that the demand for oil directly depends on the pace of development of the world economy. So, in the last interview, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde noted that the risks of the global economy are increasing and in general the clouds are gathering over it. So, the clouds are gathering and over the demand for oil. This, of course, is not a complete list of arguments. But this is something that can act as the basis for the formation of a downtrend. Thus, our position is medium-term sales of oil from current ones with targets in the region of $ 40 per barrel. Obviously, it will take more than a month to reach these marks, so we recommend that you have enough patience.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Trade24Fx
Kenji signals: sell oil Today, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily oil chart (WTI) generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume. According to the indicator, the price of oil is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Pullback expected before the next down leg (Elliott Wave)Crude currently seems to be in the ending stages of the first Impulse down from 72.87 level. This Impulse down was sharp as is expected after an Ending Diagonal is formed, from what is visible now we can complete this leg down near 64 or 63.30 level and from there form atleast a 3 legged correction to the upside for Wave 2 or Wave B which can take Crude possibly till 68.30 levels (more clear targets will be visible once the bottom is formed). The important thing here is to wait for the pullback for adding more shorts or initiating new shorts to the downside which can take Crude till 59.40 to 56 levels.
TVC:USOILShort
by NeeravYadav
Is oil about to crash to the 60.00 level again?Technicals perfectly matching on this charts. Momentum slowing down as you can see on the RSI. On the lower timeframe (daily and below) we recently saw the impulsive oil drop that does not look like it's going to stop really soon. Price may go up towards the 75 level and build up some decent resistance right there before it drops down. The trendline from June 2017 is quite strong and if that significantly breaks, oil prices are likely to fall down further towards the 60 level. Maybe the weekly COI (Crude oil inventories) can push this to this area. A significant move above 75 will make this setup invalid. A break of the trendline or break of the lows means we can start to expect bearish movement and a drop off towards 60
TVC:USOILShort
by VAST-Charts
4
Crude Oil Targets: Short 63,44 / 64,75 or Long 70,00. I invest in Crypto currencies and I trade CFD's. When you want to invest in crypto, I advise you to buy 'real coins' because on long term that will give you far more profit than speculate the chart with CFD's. I have bought XRP-Ripple, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, ReddCoin, FeatherCoin, Adcoin ( ACC ), Bunny Token and looking for NEO! But wait NEO to buy, because price seems to go to 30.00 first. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What about my ' Cycle phenomenon' ? read here: My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence. But, still the most difficult part and what it's all about, is where does a long or a short start? and which point is telling you that the cycle is started, so that you know it will probably go to the next fibonacci resistance? .... therefore I have developed some own indicators! The exact positions of where to open, to close and the stop loss position and take profit position is very important to be successful with trading! My strategy is to never trade on volatile markets. You will lose your money when you do! Trade on technical-chart analysis! not on news and volatility! One of my other strategies is that trades are only interesting and ‘safe’ to open when: you can possibly lose 1/3rd of the possible profit. So; when you set the indicators after analysing resistances, and you can lose 100 but win 300, it is worth the try! How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts. Therefor I use the fibonacci sequence. My indicators tell to open a position or not and in combination with other own created indicators I decide where to place the stop loss and take profit positions. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! or open directly. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are other positions than the resistances in the market! - the moving-averages and bollinger-bands are very important indicators also. They are helping a lot! by making decisions. And that is Why I win more than I lose in the end. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! But don't forget; trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period! Most of the times the sentiment changes on Monday! please consider that when you start a position on Monday. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are on steady markets normally calm trading days. Than, my strategies work at their best! Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new analysis. Also read my account and the 'status updates' to be informed. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:USOIL
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
Oil long $62.90 or $60.40 ($61.15 resistance short) best to waitOil chance to go long to $62.90 or short to $60.40 between the horizontal pattern now. ($61.15 is a resistance within the short-range) best to wait now. The Oil price is exactly between two bollinger bands , which means price- fluctuations and opening positions most of the time means losing money. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence. But, still the most difficult part and what it's all about, is where does a long or a short start? and which point is telling you that the cycle is started, so that you know it will probably go to the next fibonacci resistance? .... therefore I have developed some own indicators! The exact positions of where to open, to close and the stop loss position and take profit position is very important to be successful with trading! My strategy is to never trade on volatile markets. You will lose your money when you do! Trade on technical-chart analysis! not on news and volatility! One of my other strategies is that trades are only interesting and ‘safe’ to open when: you can possibly lose 1/3rd of the possible profit. So; when you set the indicators after analysing resistances, and you can lose 100 but win 300, it is worth the try! How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts. Therefor I use the fibonacci sequence. My indicators tell to open a position or not and in combination with other own created indicators I decide where to place the stop loss and take profit positions. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! or open directly. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are other positions than the resistances in the market! - the moving-averages and bollinger-bands are very important indicators also. They are helping a lot! by making decisions. And that is Why I win more than I lose in the end. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! But don't forget; trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period! Most of the times the sentiment changes on Monday! please consider that when you start a position on Monday. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are on steady markets normally calm trading days. Than, my strategies work at their best! Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new ones. Also read my account and the 'status updates' to be informed. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:USOIL
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
Oil is still bullish. As long as we are not breaking 59 dollarOil is still in bullish position. As long as we are not breaking 59 dollar I still believe we are in uptrend and the price can rise to 75 dollar. We have reached a critic point last week, but the week ended positive. The sentiment next Monday will decide if it will be interesting to open a long cfd! The orange line is showing which point is the position we open a trade. Stop loss position and take profit position are very important! My strategy is to never trade on volatile markets. You will lose your money when you do! Just like last week, when came up unexpected volatility at oil, and we lost two trades. The won position a day before was at a steady market. Trade on technical-chart analysis! not on news and volatility! Well, one of my other strategies is that trades are only interesting and ‘safe’ to open when: you can possibly lose 1/3rd of the possible profit. So; when you set the indicators after analysing resistances, and you can lose 100 but win 300, it is worth the try! Now, I see a opportunity on Oil. The chart is horizontal but the upper horizontal resistance was broken at $59 dollar. I have pointed out the breakingpoint with the black vertical line! Last week it retraced, but when it stays above $59 dollar we are still in uptrend! Oil is just in horizontal pattern now. How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts. - and this own indicators tell me If a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! And that is Why I win more than I lose. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! Most of the times the sentiment changes on Monday! Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:USOILLong
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
Crude Oil APR2018 (NYMEX)Trading Signal Short Position (EP) : 63.05 Stop Loss (SL) : 63.75 Take Profit (TP) : 62.00 Description CL1! have reached day resistance zone and about to go down for correction. Turtle Soup was formed during 4h time frame. Set up sell stop at 63.05 and place take profit (Buy limit) before 0.382 of FR (62.00) Wait for the market price hit entry point then, place stop loss (Buy stop) at high of the candle stick (63.75) Money Management Money in portfolio : $50,000 Risk Management (2%) : $1,000 Position Sizing 1 Tick value = +-$1000 Commission fee = -$30/contract EP to SL = 0.70 Tick value = -$700/contract Contract size to open = 1 contracts EP to TP = 1.05 tick value = +$1,050 Expected Result Loss = -$730 Gain = +$1,020 Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.38
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SuppasitWechprasit
OIL Top?? Might be headed to below $60 soon.If you think this move in the markets is enough to rattle your nerves, imagine what a move lower in OIL would do to the markets? OIL has extended nearly 100% beyond recent price rotation and has setup a nearly perfect rotational top pattern. If is my opinion that OIL will likely rotate lower towards $60 in the immediate future while the US majors rotate through a congestion phase till they find a new peak near March 15. Time to short OIL?? Might be the perfect time to short OIL.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny
Brent Crude Oil above major support, watch for a break!Brent crude oil is starting to show bearish signs and a potential reversal. Our major support remains at 68.60 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and a break of this would trigger a bearish move down to support at 65.98 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). We can see that price has made a recent bearish exit of an intermediate ascending support-turned-resistance line triggering a potential reversal. Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a pullback to 54% intermediate resistance where we expect a further drop from. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by Tickmill
1
OIL - Short 4 4 BucksThough oil is quite bullish here I'm playing for a 4$ (maybe 5$) drop ( not 44!!!) on my private account for a testback of the blue trendline or the 50 SMA. The RSI is printing a divergence and I think when the dollar is printing it's last bounce in the following weeks that will affect oil also, so it can drop into its daily cycle low. It's not a "Let's bet the farm on it" trade. Just a small game I think this will be my last trade in oil this year. NEW SHORT trade from 55.93$.
TVC:USOILShort
by chartwatchers
38