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Opec

UKOIL Bearish Flag and Pessimistic OPEC Expectations (June 5th)UPDATE: Closed at 61.50 EDIT -- ZOOM OUT TO SEE FLAG, take no notice of the Harmonic Pattern This is a clear bearish flag, no doubt about it. Been rebounding in the channel since the start of Jan2015. A break of the lower part of the channel could signal a further fall continuation to previous Supports/Resistances of 54.58, 52.17 and more severely, the Jan low of 45.56. We've also got Feb 2009 Supports of 39. Psycological levels of course 60, 55 (based off of confluence see rectangle Feb 2015), 50, 40 and so on. Stops @ 66.10 Reason for this is that I'm not aiming for "a trade" where my Risk/Reward would usually be 1:1 More of a long term target with a short-term stop On the Fundamental Side this is relating to USOil Price Action, but the underlying idea is the same Seeing that after the November 27th meeting, when OPEC decided not to cut production, Oil ended up plummeting ~$30. A couple of weeks ago, the OPEC Head, or the Iranian/Saudi Oil Minister, i can’t remember which one, said that it is highly unlikely that we’ll ever see oil at $100 again. With that in mind, seeing that Oil is now flirting around the $60 handle, any decision to cut production on June 5th, could send Oil a great deal higher, maybe ~$20-$30. Therefore, that being the case, it seems extremely plausible that OPEC do end up sticking to the status quo. In which case, hello $40 again. Fully welcome any ideas to prove me wrong/different viewpoints.
FX:UKOILShort
by petermp25
2
USOIL: Bullish signalsDowntrend failure inminent, I suspect the OPEC meeting outcome will seal the dollar and crude oil's fate here. Analysis on chart, we have what looks like the beginning of a fifth wave here, after the current daily downtrend signal was reached ahead of time. Price is about to cross above the mode after two strong daily bars, where buyers were in control. I'm tempted to declare this as the start of a strong uptrend, but for now, the targets are on the chart. This is very bullish for the Euro and bearish for the Dollar accross the board. Cheers, Ivan.
FX:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
15
Crude Cuts Up LongsI haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to the $42.13 longer-term trend line (purple dotted line). OPEC... or Saudi Arabia, rather, will continue to put the big hurt on US shale plays. The EIA crude inventory report shown a surplus of 8.9 million barrels, following a increase of 10.1 million barrels the following month. The API data was even more bearish, suggesting an increase of over 12 million barrels. US shale companies will continue to pump, even as rigs fall to multi-year lows. Even given the 120+ days of declining gas prices, demand is still not there. Potential long accumulation could be interesting in low $42, perhaps lower. However, $80/90 barrel oil is not even going to be possible. $55/60 seems more realistic.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
4
FLY THE FRIENDLY SKIES?The price of oil has been sliding in the second half of 2014, but airlines have not lowered their prices. Or brought back free meals. Or allowed domestic customers to check in luggage free of charge. So how can one turn flying friendly? Perhaps by purchasing U.S. airline stocks. The cost of oil has plunged nearly 48% since the end of June and the market remains stuck in one direction. OPEC nations might make less profit and Russia, Iran and Iraq might be faced with significant economic and social issues. However, individual customers should be in the winning column. Customers have not fully benefited from oil’s collapse. While gas is cheaper at the pump, food, clothes and airline tickets haven’t declined appreciably. Since these companies will not pass on even some of their profits to customers, then customers will need to extract benefits on their own. U.S. airline stocks such as American Airlines (AAL) and Delta (DAL) have been surging since October 10, as they became easy choices for investors and short-term speculators. These stocks have been moving in the opposite direction than oil (CL1!) and they will remain in demand for as long as oil will be cratering. The four-week correlation between oil and American Airlines is near perfect high negative levels. It rarely drops below -.8, and then the correlation doesn’t last more than a few weeks. Things have changed — the high negative correlation has been in place for 1 ½ months. Only a bounce of the four-week correlation above -.8 would suggest profit taking on American Airlines and Delta.
NYMEX:CL1!
by charttrader
9
GBPCAD Trade IdeaIt would appear that this is the second time pair is bouncing up from below 1.76 which is now determined to be very strong support. As with the last price action it then moved up above 1.8. Looking at the MACD, we can see that there is consolidation and a cross over about to occur. I think within the next candle we should know if this is a buy opportunity. Only consider buying if the price enters the support and resistance zone. Although the crude oil price/canadian dollar correlation has loosened, I would still think a strong move higher will happen if OPEC does not cut production.
by maccabean