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Orangejuice

Orange Juice Futures - Free Money Long $JOAs a speculator I look into the logic behind $JO supply and demand. At price levels it changes hand and the climate outlook. Lastly the technical outlook and CFTC positioning. United states imported %66 of it's JO demand from Brazil in 2017 and as citrus greening and grove renewal is continuing to cap Florida producers. Leaving the U.S heavily dependent on imports in particular Brazil going forward. Brazilian Real (BRL) lost significant value to the run up to the Brazilian elections and dragged many soft commodity prices lower this year creating a cheap buying opportunity. Since the elections have passed , BRL has been steadily on the rise. Across all indicators and positioning it is clear that BRL upside momentum is set to prevail. Which will support JO prices as importing the product will be more expensive. CFTC data positioning is signaling a clear selling exhaustion at the low $140s. As citrus acid demand is increasing globally, U.S JO demand greatly import reliant from Brazil and BRL on the rise. Commercials are inclined to hedge JO futures keeping the commodity bid. Technical analysis shows $JO found a floor on the weekly chart. Printing a clear reversal hammer chart pattern which has increased likelihood swinging prices back up. The reversal originated from short covering. A dynamic where short contract holders close their positions and therefore pushing prices back up. We have reasons to believe that this short covering trend is set to continue.
JLong
by SpeculatorsTrading
ORANGE JUICE and the STARTING DATE of the seasonal windowMy last analysis, signal, about the calendar spread on the Orange Juice, gives me the opportunity to talk about the starting date of the seasonal window. From my experience, I never buy or sell a spread on the day of the starting date of seasonality. The reason is that many traders do that (even without a graphical pattern or signal) and, even though the manipulation is low in the spread trading, however, there is and in that day is stronger. You have seen that on the Orange Juice. A 1-2-3 low of Ross and the price goes over the point-2 exactly the starting day of the seasonal window (green vertical line). And then? Stop loss. For that reason, I put my entry signal, not after the 1-2-3 low of Ross, but after the Ross Hook that has never been overtaken by the price. Now, even though the seasonality is pretty short, there is a bullish divergence (price/RSI), and the breakout of the resistance (blue trendline) will give the signal for buying the spread.
J
by TradingwDavid
1
Spread trading on ORANGE JUICEAn interesting Spread proposed by SeasonAlgo on ORANGE JUICE, to be exact: BUY OJU18 (delivery September) and SELL OJX18 (delivery November). The bullish seasonal window started on August 1 and will end on September 2. Win: 14/15 (93%). Graphically, the chart has formed a 1-2-3 low of Ross and, after, a Ross Hook. Buying the spread if the price will rise above the RH. Stop loss below the point 1 of the formation. The only problem: FND/LTD September 4 (very close).
O
by TradingwDavid
2
Orange Juice to 160Orange Juice has put in a weekly pin bar at the major level of $200. Also, on the daily chart we put in a evening star, which spells trouble for the future prices. We also are in an ascending wedge that if broken in the near term future targets $160. This wedge also has weekly divergence, which confirms this move. The next support level would be $100. Finally, from a fundamental view less and less frozen OJ is being bought from consumers all while price is at the highest level it's been, which doesn't make sense seeing that demand is just overall low. Yes, of course there is less producing now and businesses shutting down in Florida, but the reason is because of the demand. All the details are in the chart.
OShort
by adriel.arrasmith
1
Orange Juice: Intermediate Top OJ prices have gone up significantly very quickly since El Niño - probably the most among all commodities. Notice, last week price broke minor two month trend line followed by a .618 retracement into the trend line. Below is a chart showing extreme lows in the US Dollar against orange juice prices. My yellow indicator at the bottom must correspond with price in the purple rectangle. We have that now. Chart below shows the key levels OJ is up against (purple boxes). Additionally, a momentum shift may be coming (see blue line on the bottom). Price will likely be challenged here. If not, they will explode higher, but I think it will be short lived if they actually do. Probability is certainly on our side for price getting challenged.
OShort
by Lanmar