USD/JPY SCENARIOSSO MY USD/JPY SHORT TO 122 HAS MOVED TO TARGET IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO THE GAP DOWN ON THE OPEN. NOW I AM NEUTRAL THIS PAIR AWAITING PRICE TO SIGNAL THE NEXT MOVE. WEEKLY TIMEFRAME IS STRILL BULLISH BUT USD HAS BEEN WEAKER LATELY AND A POSSIBLE REVERSAL IS ON THE CARDS.
AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE SHOT I AM SIMPLY WAITING FOR A TRENDLINE BREAK IN EITHER DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE RIGHT P.A TO SIGNAL WHETHER A LONG OR SHORT IS NEXT FOR THIS PAIR.
Patience
Approaching major support on AUDCADI have been frustratingly short this pair around 2 months now and eating the negative carry. As you can see this is a weekly chart and as a swing trader over the last 2 years I've been learning the value of patience. The potential for an aggressive move to the downside here is good, although IMO this pair tends to be very choppy.. so maybe an ideal trade to learn the art of patience? :)
Either way I will be playing the short side over the next couple of weeks looking for a downside target of 0.88 . Be aware that we might fake-out to the downside only to break up and retest the triangle we've just broken out of before pushing down with more conviction (check the daily chart to visualise this).
AUSSIE SHORT SET UP 24 APR 1. Potential bullish Wolfe Wave
2. Wave 4 is due its decline
3. Strong resistance @ 0.78 level.
4. Price Action indicating Bulls are losing steam on all TFs.
Based on Wolfe Wave rules, one must enter on wave 5. However if you can spot the geometry early and forecast where Wave 4 will begin then why not enter at wave 4?
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AUDNZD DAILY SHORTIM ALREADY SHORT IN THIS PAIR BUT IF PRICE RETRACES AND TAKES ME OUT OF THE TRADE THEN THE NEXT LEVEL I'D LOOK TO SELL IS AT MY CLUSTER ZONE/SELL ZONE. IVE GOT LOADS OF CONFLUENCES AT THIS LEVEL WHICH ARE THE 0.5 AND 61.8 FIB, SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE STRUCTURE LEVEL, MAJOR TRENDLINE, DYNAMIC RESISTANCE (50 MA) AND A NICE PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUND NUMBER (1.03000). Another confluence is this trade setup is in line with the fundamentals because the RBA (reserve bank of Australia) said there is a possibly there could be another rate cut in the period ahead.
EURUSD 4 HOUR SHORTtextbook setup. Price has failed to break the 1.10 psychological barrier several times so this could be a nice level to go short with a nice 1:3 risk to reward. if price does manage to break out of this barrier then next resistance to look to get short is at 1.11294 which is also in confluence with the 61.8 fib level.
Dow Futures, Two sided trade 08:00 am: This week will be eventful. Fed is expected to remove the "patience" from its interest rate policy statement. If so, markets will expect a rate hike in Jun Fed meeting. This is likely to put pressure on the markets in the intermediate term as the expected rate hike, the first since 2006, will be perceived as a game changer.
If the above unfolds, USD can strengthen further and put pressure on earnings expectation of American international companies. The markets can decline if earnings are expected to be soft.
Current market support is on the uptrend line around 17500. Expecting a low volume, two sided trade, till FED announcement.
For instructional purposes only.
USDCAD 4 HOUR LONGprice is pulling back into nice structure level which would be a good opportunity to get long. Buyers are clearly defending this level as they dont want price to drop into the area where Canada cut interest rates. I.ll be watching for a buy signal at this level eg bullish hammer or engulfling pattern. My long term target is still at 1.30 but i.ll be targeting 1.25358 for now