We Should Hit ATHs Soon. Stimulus?It has been a very long time since Intermediate wave 5 failed to move above the peak of Intermediate wave 3. With it being 2020 and the world on fire, maybe this is the exception. IMHO I doubt it. Wave 3 peaked in early September at 3588.11. I project not only will our current wave 5 surpass that, but my projection has the top around 3639. This is not unrealistic. The crazier part of the forecast is this top occurring before election day, more specifically around October 29. This is not much time considering about 75 hours of trading will occur between my marked end of Minor wave 4 on October 15. Minor wave 3 moved 45 hours. The ratio of Minor wave 3 hours to the projected Minor wave 5 hours is 0.6. This is just slightly below the average and median relationships for these waves which is around 0.73-0.83. This could also mean Minor wave 5 lasts less than 75 hours, give or take a few trading days.
The target levels are still in line with those I projected months ago. I do not necessarily see a top above 3664, but we should get above 3610. The highest frequency of data points for a top are around 3639 so this is my official target.
A potential contributing factor to such a run over a short amount of time could be actual passage of stimulus by the Congress, or continued hopium that finally fails to deliver by election day.
On a side note I have Apple running up and above at least 133, possibly 140. When will both of these runups occur, around October 29. The close of trading on October 29 coincides with Apple's earnings call (my initial take is earnings may be much worse than expected). The drop I have occurring after this date will be massive (about 750 points on the S&P 500 Index). Likely contributors are election "surprise", delayed election results, legal fighting/winner uncertainty, failed stimulus and lame duck politicians, COVID 2.0/flu season, even more rioting, war in the world, or some other black swan.
But don't worry, the drop will be temporary. I am forecasting a bottom somewhere in Q1 of 2021 and then ATHs again. I will keep posting updates as more waves are completed (or I think they complete and scrape egg off my face).
