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SPY speculationAs we know, today the market dropped incredibly in according to the Asian markets. We have been playing off the same trendline support for the past month and a half. Every time we come down into the region we form either an inverse head and shoulders or cup and handle as our reversal pattern. This time we formed a cup and handle pattern. Usually during reversals, we will see the market make a structure low that will trigger oversold and then another one that will actually register as neutral strength. This time we saw the market make a structure low (highlighted in blue circle) and then it registered oversold (yellow circle highlighted). However, we didn't see a retest of new lows to produce a neutral RSI. Instead we saw price just advance higher which makes me speculate if this channel that we have been playing in for over a month will finally be done. We might see it spill over, we did close red on the year just a few days ago. Sentiment isn't too great, be careful, I can see this coming back down after a minimal rally.
AMEX:SPY
by YusufS
AUDUSD Trading plan for today. SWA approach.Swing Wave Approach Developed by author, This approach can be used by professionals and due to it’s simplicity it can be taught in a much shorter period than other Wave analysis offered on the market. The main idea behind it is catching a one swing. And the main use of the current approach is to trade, rather then analysing the long term price movement. The purpose of the approach is to make money out of the next swing of a tradable period. Impulse move, or the move towards the presumed main trend direction, is indicated with “i” followed by the wave number Each higher step/grade is marked with Capital “i” which stands for Impulse + apostrophe after the impulse wave number e.g.: I1’ - 1st impulse wave 2 steps higher, I1’' - 3 steps, I1’’’ - 4 steps I1’ I2’ I3’ 2 steps higher I1 I2 I3 1 step higher i1 i2 i3 trading period ‘i1 ‘i2 ‘i3 1 step lower ‘’i1 ‘’i2 ‘’i3 2 steps lower Corrective move is marked with letters, where a - 1st corrective wave, b - 2nd, etc… Each higher step/grade is marked with Capital letter + apostrophe after the ; e.g.: ‘ - 2 steps higher, ‘’-3 steps, ‘’’ - 4 steps A’ B’ C’ 2 steps higher A B C 1 step higher a b c trading period ‘a ‘b ’c 1 step lower ‘’a ‘’b ‘’c 2 steps lower Each lower step/grade marked with apostrophe before the lowercase letter; e.g.: ‘a - 1 step lower, ‘’a - 2 steps lower, ‘’’a - 3 steps lower
Short
by Marenno
EURJPY Week review, Trading plan for a begining of the weekIndeterminate direction of price as no clear signs has been given by the last quarter's closure. Last Quarter's close is below 5MA what gives a bit more power to bearish signals We have a bearish chart pattern (Quarter) Price is currently at 50% Fibonacci retracement area in a relation to previous swing Down Will look for a bearish long-term entry setup (based on Quarter chart, using lower leverage and wider stops, this type of trade will be left open for up to a quarter) at around 133.75 Currently none of the major chart patterns appears on weekly chart Price is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to weeklyy timeframe) in a relation to Previous swing UP Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on weekly chart, this type of trade will be left open for a few days) at around 133.75 On a 1D chart we have a bearish chart pattern Price is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to 1D timeframe) in a relation to Previous swing UP Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on 1D chart, trade will be left for Hours, but position will be closed in parts and using a trailing technique, will try leave it open for a maximum period possible) at around 133.75 In conclusion, all the levels I mentioned are based on a current market activity, but everything can be changed within seconds, however based on a review that is done, I will be looking for a selling opportunities coming week.
Short
by Marenno
Trading Plan Oct-NovBUY: new high, break of 248 TP: along the targets up to 281 SELL: break of black trend line & failure to break 248 TP: around 232.5 - 235 / Build a new long position from there. HOLD: if you are long, the break of the C&H neckline indicated that price will try to reach the C&H target 256-258 A break of 248 would indicate that price will be trying to reach the double bottom target 268 - 273 OTE SELL ZONE: Look for reversal signals there and establish a short position The white & red forecast drawings are just for the purpose of orientation.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MagnusTradingGroup
1
GBPAUD - Potential Sell Entries on Supply for a new SwingThe price action moved the GBPAUD inside the demand area so the buy orders made it spike up. It is ok, nothing wrong with it. I am still selling since 2.1998. If the price will have a new swing I think to sell more in the new fresh supply level. In the chart are visible some potential entry points for sell trades. My target is still 2.12, but watching the weekly chart, for the moment the trend is bearish in this correction so having the Patience to wait and a clear Trading Plan larger profits can arrive by selling. Let see what will happen. I am keeping my sell trade to reach a huge profit. Thank you Girolamo Aloe
Short
by girolamoaloe
EURJPY - Waiting to buy in the dip following the trading planThe buy opportunity in this scenario is risky, because the demand was already tested and it seems uncertain. In the demand I marked 2 potential entries, but the highest one has been already tested. so in this retracing back I don't take it in consideration anymore, but I expect to buy in the dip on the lowest entry point, if it will be possible. The Trading Plan consider a possible buy trade in the demand, riding a potential new swing, and one or more sell trades in the fresh supply level, expecting that the weaker demand could be taken out. What do you think about this currency? Thank you Girolamo Aloe
by girolamoaloe
6
$XAUUSD Trading Plan - MondayGood time of the day Everyone, just rehabilitated from my seasonal illness, and came back to work, sorry for not posting for a while. Ok at the moment I'm looking for a retest of 1172 area and is going to enter long at 1135 area, if price action confirms with a stop loss below 1120 area. Daily Resistance area has been broken, however it's not yet confirmed but my trading plan is around this subject. Colored fibs are the resistance levels of the most recent downswing, and grayed are the opposite - supports of the most recent up swing. Not trading actual levels - but areas, so there are a bit more lines then usual. Any questions, critics, etc - will be glad to comment!!! Sincerely!!!
FX:XAUUSD
by Marenno
$EURUSD #Trading plan for NFP releaseToday's NFP is something, what most trader's are paying more attention then usual. It's a very good Idea to have a plan to follow during the news release and after. I do not recommend to gamble, and to use buy stop and sell stop orders, as mistakes, whipsaws and a guaranteed horrible mood over the weekend is possible. Please consider it as a rule N1: DON'T be afraid of loosing trade. Be afraid of loosing your account!!! I plan to act on a 15 min chart, and will start to watch the situation after 1st 15 min candle/bar is closed. The situation can be changed a lot, but having a plan, as I've mentioned before is a "must" Please browse through the chart for more details.
by Marenno
5
TRADER’S RULES:Let’s glimpse into the basics and do not forget to use these rules. It’s proved - they do work! TRADER’S RULES 1. Always work in the direction of the dominant trend 2. Find the strategy where you are most successful, namely the one that gives the minimum account drawdown 3. Reduce the number and size of transactions in case of losses, and vice versa 4. The main rule of profitable trading is control over losses 5. Plan ahead 6. At any time, assume that your plan is not working 7. Everything that happened is history. Focus on the future 8. Success in this business requires incredible concentration and mental costs. Learn to relax 9. Never allow your winning attitude to became unprofitable 10. If you have done something wrong, immediately close the position 11. If you do not see the possibilities – do not trade 12. Do not be a hero. Do not think that you know more than the market. Work with confidence, but always doubt yourself 13. Never overtrade 14. Do not take risks before and immediately after the release of important economic data. This is not the trading but the gambling 15. Avoid emotions 16. Use not just a price stop, but a time stop. If you are waiting for a breakthrough of the market, and it did not happen, close the position, even if it is in profit.
by djeniks
8
AUD/USD Analysis 30.04.2015Background: Aud/Usd Remains in a downtrend but we found support @0.75600 ish level and price found balance, we formed a minor range between 0.7560 support and 0.7914 resistance , where price broke thru resistance but price traded back into the broken resistance, however its not over for the bulls as the up channel is still intact and if we find buyers we may head back aboove to retest the current high @0.80600 Signs of Strenght: price found support broken resistance up channel Signs of Weakness: Downtrend broken resistance didnt turned support @ retest Key Levels above current price: 80750 82500 79800 Key Levels below current price: 78180 77200 75600 sidenote: A Trading channel is nothing but a diagonal trading range where the upper limits is the oversold level and the lower limits is the oversold level , whereas the mean in this case rising represents fair value. and as it rises so does demand , if price fails to take out the lower limits of the channel and we break the RED trendlines this indicates that demand is in charge and any higher low can be used as an entry signal for a long position
by Invezted
SPX levels and plan Recently, i posted chart where I mentioned that i am not going to be too bearish untill break down og this intermidiate trend line. You need to be prepared for different scenarios with stocks that are on your long/short watch list. When this scenario came into play, plenty of short opportunities emerged (check some of them in the link below). I still don't think that this 2 days selloff is the end of the world. If bears want to keep control, they should defend $1,937 (important), then we have resistance zone a t$1,949-56. I will be watching for tactical pullback, as it feels a bit oversold here, trading with stock that show us relative strength. Then short opportunities ("h"-pattern) on pullbacks from resistance zone and moving averages.
SP:SPX
by andrew.berg
AAPL in front of earningsRecent news: * Deal with IBM * Split 1:7 * Presentation of new iOS 8 * Acquisition of Beats for $2.6 bln + 400 millions of shares Tendencies and perspectives: * Smartphones with big screen threaten sales of iPad * market share of tablets reduced according to research * Smart home, Apple Smart-TV, Touch ID, iWatch - these are innovations that investors expect from Apple * iPhone 6 with sapphire glasse? * Rumors: Apple can acquire Tesla What to expect: * EPS expectations $1.23 vs $1.07 yoy * iPhones + iPads = 3/4 of profit * Analysts upgrades (Barclays, UBS, JMP: $110, $115, $135 respectively) * Comments of upper management and Tim Cook on Conference Call about new products coul be catalyst * I think, numbers will meet expectations How to trade: * Hold Call options in front of earnings. I like this idea because it has well defined risk-premium and you wont be caught with gap down. * Long above $97 resistance * Long if drop down to support $89.65-$90.00 * Gap up and cover (Buy on rumors, sell on news) * Open below $92.50-$93.00 - short to bigger support
NASDAQ:AAPL
by andrew.berg
3
QQQ showing relative strengthIt started 2014 year as laggard and was trending lower in bear channel. But then it bounced off of 200 EMA with RedDogReversal, regrouped and have built higher highs. Finally, sentiment changed when it resolved this indecision area with break up of resistance at $88.60 with nice 4 days follow through. Traders should adapt and make adjustments if they want to survive and be profitable. Then, it built nice upper-level base and borke up again. After 3 weeks of consolidation it broke up to new highs. $MSFT put another record high, 8/21/50 EMA control price. Stocks like $TSLA, $INTC, $FB, $NFLX and even $TWTR looks well and hold above 8 EMA, but no calculated setups here. $AAPL broke up its descending channle as this stock was not interesting for traders last 2 weeks. Lets see if it can build above $91.35. High at $95.05 could be intermidiate target. My previous ideas on some of those stocks and evolution of thoughts: MSFT MSFT INTC INTC Facebook
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by andrew.berg
6
SPY reversal off highs, scenarios and game planUS indexes were up in early trading after New Home Sales data came out much better than expected. Consumer Confidence Index beats expectations as well. But later markets reversed, engulfed those gains and closed near lows. Lets see clues and points of adjustments (15 min timeframe analysis). After price reached resistance zone $195.50-.60 reversal candle appeared that usually leads to correction. Then buyers failed to hold 8/21 EMA - sentiment is changing. Finally, when sellers managed to erase all intraday gains and broke down 3-days support - strong signal that sellers are in control. Many traders waited for such type of sell off that suddenly took place. Today, in media we will see many articles with fears across the board. They will be screaming that price found its top and now it is going to pullback 10% off the highs. But let be objective. Price just closed below 8 EMA. And before this boom scenario will come into play price should go through 21/50/100/200 EMAs. I think that we will see new highs this year, but question is what will happen first - pull back lets say to 50 EMA or new recor high. This red reversal candle is definitely something to take notice for short term active traders who open their positions intraday or for few days. We can expect 2-3 days of continuation down move and then will measure. I mapped out levels of support and resistance where to make adjustments/take decisions. If sellers want to be in control they don't want to give back $195.27 8 EMA, then we have high at $196.50. And break below intraday low $194.48 could lead to $193.95 21 EMA. Then we have potential support - swing low from 12 of June at $193.11. Intermidiate target could be $191.28 50 EMA. I have three scenarios ni my had to game plan today's action. #1: Price will bounce off of yesterday's low. High probability strategy will be buying leaders that show relative strength: $MSFT, $INTC, $NFLX, $FB, $YELP, $JPM, $WFC, $TSLA, $DDD, $FSLR are some of them. #2: otherwise, if SPY will go through low then I will consider short stocks that show relative weakness: $BA, $GE, $AAPL, $IBM, $C. #3: market opens higher then will sell off.
AMEX:SPY
by andrew.berg