Get started

Potash

MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% MOS, 85% Cash. *Putin continues his quest to annex all of Eastern Ukraine and has now concentrated attacks in Lysychans'k which is one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in Luhansk (the fall of this city will all but guarantee that Eastern Ukraine belongs to Russia). President Biden announced today the US will be establishing a V Corps (US Army) operation headquarters in Poland and has significantly boosted military presence/aid on NATO's Eastern Flank. Turkey lifted their veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO , expanding NATO's presence in Europe. Potash and phosphate prices remain high but have come down a bit recently due to producers like Nutrien vowing to boost production (potash specifically) in response to the supply chain interruptions in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.* Price is currently testing the 200 MA as support at ~$48 after briefly breaking above it to touch $51.50 in yesterday's session; this is likely a rejection at the 200 MA as resistance but there is still a chance that Price can bounce here considering that it is currently breaking out of the descending trendline from 04/14/22. Additionally, Price is currently defending the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45); this is an important trendline because if it breaks below it would suggest that the uptrend was due in large part to QE and a near-0% rate environment. Volume is Moderate (low) and is currently on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $51.36, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 38 after being rejected by the descending trendline from 03/04/22 at 40.33 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.49 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending up at -3.33 as it attempts to break above -3.20 and form a bullish crossover; the next resistance is at -2.52 and support at -4.11. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 30 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA (~$48) then it will likely continue up to test $55.79 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 before potentially heading lower to retest $42.50 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $48.78.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
3
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and fertilizer trade routes from Russia (and through Ukraine) continue to be disrupted by a mixture of sanctions and war as the global economic order continues to reorganize; Russia continues to find "friendly" trade partners that are willing to pay these higher prices. The rest of the world is now reeling from the effect this is having on gas/diesel prices because the transport industry (which is already seeing a labor shortage) is having to pass these prices on to the producers who pass this on to this distributors who pass this on to consumers -- who are currently experiencing reduced purchasing power and insufficient wage growth. This and China's "Zero Covid Policy" have exacerbated the rise in global growth destruction starting in 2019 (Covid-19 pandemic). Additionally, economies are starting to see contraction and, aside from Japan and Russia, central banks have been increasingly hawkish and committed to reducing global inflation by helping to weaken demand through monetary policy. All that said, we're now starting to see the already strange combo of low unemployment and labor shortages turn into lay-offs. Though unclear as to whether or not this will positively influence the driver workforce, it's hard to see reduced demand lead to more truck drivers unless the freight companies want to pay them more. Should be interestingly sad to see stockpiles of grain, oil and fertilizer combined with disproportionately high prices.* Price is currently testing the descending trendline from 04/18/22 as support at ~$49.50 and is on the verge of testing the 200 MA at ~$48.20 as support for the first time since December 2021. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is currently on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $59.13, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 34 after being rejected by 40.33 resistance, the next support is at 25.31. Stochastic is currently regressing to a bearish crossover at 16, the next support is max bottom and resistance at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -3 with no signs of trough formation; if it loses -2.52 support it will likely test -4.88 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest 55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test the 200 MA at ~$48.20 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45) for the first time since January 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $51.52.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
BTC gathering the bulls, but is inflation really under control? INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Joe Biden said America's goal is a "democratic, independent" Ukraine with the means to "defend itself against further aggression" In a move to counter EU's partial embargo on crude oil, Russia cut off more gas supplies to companies in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, stating they failed to make payments in RUB U.S. housing market witnessed a dramatic +20.6% surge in prices in March, as buyers rushed to close deals before higher interest rates hit mortgages. More recent data showed a slowdown in real estate activity German inflation hit 8.7% in May, above EU average, while retail sales plunged 5.4% on a monthly basis, vs. negative 0.2% expectation China unveiled a fiscal, monetary and industrial stimulus package to rev up its virus-hit economy Retail gas prices in the U.S. reached a new all-time high, clocking +52% year-on-year PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero's calls for caution were followed by an underwhelming first day of trading after the long Memorial Day weekend, with all major U.S. indexes closing the day in red mostly due to profit-taking after last week's relief bounce. Traders are showing unease at mixed macro data, with still tight job market triggering wage rises, thus putting prospective pressure on either consumer prices or corporate margins. ProfZero long warned about who's going to pick up the tab on inflation; we may already see that the next earning season China's manufacturing, as captured by the Caixin China General Manufacturing index, rose 48.1 in May, as compared to 46 in April. ProfZero is now awaiting data on Chinese consumption, in the hope to see some bright signs as the country slowly lifts COVID restrictive measures Despite giving back part of the gains, blockchain assets still trade at 2-week highs, led by BTC confidently holding above USD 31.5k. In fact, zooming out to 2021, we clearly see a double head-and-shoulders pattern just closing, marking leg (4) of a 2-year Elliott wave that could pave the wave to a sustained medium-term bull run PROFONE'S TAKE While appreciating the possible reopening of Ukrainian ports, and the ensuing unhindered distribution of cereals, ProfOne reminds that the fertilizers market is still in a deadlock. Western sanctions hit supply from Russia and Belarus, that combined account for 41% of global fertilizer exports. Output losses can’t be made up for in the short term due to the industrial lead time needed to bring new production assets online (average time to develop a new potash ore mine is between 5 and 7 years), with direct negative consequences on the availability of fertilizer, hence crops yield. Whilst a food and humanitarian crisis has been averted - soft commodity prices may not be expected to cool in the short term, even in developed countries PROFTHREE'S TAKE Extending on ProfZero's concerns that inflation is largely rooted in the energy space, ProfThree sees thermal coal as yet another commodity were prices are poised to stay at record highs. Breaking a 2-year bear market caused by calls for decarbonization, Newcastle FOB Australia benchmark now trades at USD 430/ton - 4.5x the 5-year average. The trend is not expected to buck anytime soon, especially after the EU imposed an embargo on Russian effective from August 2022, to be trailed by Japan. With the EU now also foreclosing two-thirds of crude oil imports from Russia; and natural gas curtailments being extended, it is hard to understand how exactly the EU intends to ensure energy security at yet affordable prices - now that it has to face Chinese competition on the demand side - while at the same time meeting carbon reduction goals
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishMOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. * Fed minutes were released today and confirms that the Fed is committed to two more rate hikes in June and July of at least 50 bps with potential for another 50-75 bp hike in September, and that they will sell mortgage backed securities (rather than let them roll over) if necessary as a means of reducing their balance sheet. Equity markets are currently responding positively but this could be short-lived. Additionally, to address the global food shortage, last week the U.N. proposed a plan for Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in exchange for reducing Western sanctions on fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus; considering that Russia has found willing buyers of their fertilizer at higher price points, this is unlikely to pass anytime soon.* Recommended ratio: 40% MOS, 60% cash. Price is currently breaking down out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 but is still technically testing it as support at ~$60. Volume remains high (moderate) and alternating between buyers and sellers every other day for what is now twelve consecutive sessions; this is indicative of potential consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66 which currently coincides with the 50 MA, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45.48 but is still technically testing 40.33 support; if it is able to establish support here it will likely test 58.12 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 59; the next resistance is at 80.49 and support at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -1.65 as it continues to hover just below the Signal line (-1.54); if it is able to break out above -1.54 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 19 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$60) this would also imply that it has broken out of the descending trendline from 04/18/22 and would likely prompt a retest of $64.22 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $55.79 minor support before potentially testing the 200 MA (for the first time since 12/01/21) at ~$46.28. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.40.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
MOS/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *USD bouncing back today as equity markets plunge lower.* Recommended ratio: 25% MOS, 75% cash. Price is currently trending down at $58 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/24/22 at $59.50. Volume remains moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and sellers over the past nine sessions; though premature, this is indicative of consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66.33 (coincides with the 50 MA). RSI is currently trending down and testing 40.33 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 53.04; the next support is at 39.11. MACD remains bearish after being denied a bullish crossover at -1.32 and is currently trending down at -1.73; the next support is at -0.94. ADX is currently trending sideways at 18.54 as Price is defending a critical support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22; if ADX starts trending back up as Price falls, this would be bearish. If Price continues to fall here and therefore breaks out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22, then the next likely target is a retest of $55.79 minor support. However, if Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $64.22 resistance. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
2
MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishMOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Critical Resistance watch* . Recommended ratio: 45% MOSAIC, 55% cash. Commodities have fallen with the broader market but can benefit from more supply chain woes. Price is currently trending up at $62.32 after bouncing off the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$57.50) and is approaching a test of $64.22 resistance. Interest has waned but Volume remains moderately high and fairly mixed between buyers and sellers. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $67.50, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 46.40 after reclaiming 40.33 support; the next resistance is at 58.12. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 51 but is still technically testing 39.11 resistance; if it can flip 39.11 resistance to support, the next resistance is at 80.49. MACD is currently trending sideways at -1.91 as it attempts to form a bullish crossover (would need to break out above -0.94 resistance to do this); the next support is at -2.52. ADX is currently trending down at 23 as Price is defending support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to break out above $64.22 resistance, it will likely test the 50 MA at $65.50. However, if Price is rejected here or at $64.22, then the next likely target is a retest of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 at ~$57.50 before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $65.50.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
CANE - Fertilizer Shortage TradeIt's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities. I picked CANE because of the chart. Sugar has not caught bids like soy and corn and it's chart is a screaming buy. Before smashing the market buy button like an ape, watch the long standing resistance level we are at right now. This resistance has held since 2017 so this is a critical level. I am expecting a retest at the 9.75 level where I will be looking at the volume response. I'm so itchy to buy that I might buy regardless of response, the tailwinds are simply too strong to ignore. It is taking a great deal of restraint to wait for a response but since it is such a vital level and I want the best entry possible, patience and watching volume response is the name of the game. I will update with entry price. Happy hunting, Good luck, and God speed.
AMEX:CANELong
by SloppySeconds
$NTR Above the 9 SMA and 200 SMAAbove the 9 SMA and 200 SMA, MACD is switching over, and RSI has Go Go Juice Nutrien ($NTR) the world’s largest corporate potash producer is increasing production by 10% to 15 million metric tons for 2022. The stock’s share price is up +20% this year. Disclaimer: Stratford Research newsletters reflect the research and opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Stratford Consulting Ltd. The newsletters are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc.) in any account. The information provided within the newsletters is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Stratford Consulting Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.
NYSE:NTRLong
by atrusik
GSP - A Hidden gem - FOLLOW UPConsolidation periods closing out and were on a little run since the 50M HELM news. 14.5 million tonnes of proven reserves Tuskeg project to last the next 50 years at a median price of $500/tonne would yield $7.25B this thing is primed so well its going to BLOW at any time. Been accumulating shares of the past year and with recent news released there's lots on the horizon here. Current market cap of 117M and as per the last news release: "The senior debt financing package for the Tugaske Project, being arranged by joint lead arrangers KfW IPEX-Bank and Societe Generale, is expected to be for up to CAD $280 million with the financial model supporting the robust economic viability of the Project. As highlighted in past news releases, all due diligence reports from external consultants for the assessing the technical and commercial merit of the Tugaske Project, its risks and its financial returns required by senior lenders are in final form and supportive of a favourable credit assessment. Gensource will provide further updates soon with respect to the senior debt financing for the Tugaske Project" Conclusion: I have a fairly large position relative to the size of my portfolio and am comfortable adding here as a relatively small cap wont get hit as hard to a proper correction I'm expecting before the end of the year. When the senior debt financing package is complete I expect to break $1 in which I will %20 of my position an the rest is running long! souces: gensourcepotash.ca
TSXV:GSPLong
by stsoumpas
2
GSP - A hidden gemFundamentally and Technically sound. I've been watching and buying for some time and done my share of due diligence to find this is going to be the "next big thing" is environmentally ethical mining. EXTREMELY light volume and a tight channel with minimal volatility makes it an easy buy. I expect funding news at some point before the end of the year for the Tugaske project expected to produce a minimum of 250,000 tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP) per year. HELM Fertilizers Corp, a US-based subsidiary of HELM AG, has agreed to purchase 100% of the annual production from the Tugaske Project and market directly to its customers using its own infrastructure. Lets talk about the price of potash now... For the fourth week in a row, potash saw the largest month-to-month gain, increasing to an average price of $501/ton. This marks the first time potash has had an average price above $500/ton since the fourth week of September 2013. Lots of good things in the making here and happy to be along for the ride on a long position!
TSXV:GSPLong
by stsoumpas
NTR, Mother Nature Vs. PotashTSX:NTR Weekly Rough 2019 for Potash and hence Nutrien Downtrend in RSI & Price for most of 2019 and touching support **** Nutrien's 2020 guidance is positive, but I am skeptical because.... Unpredictable weather is starting to become common and in 2019 it was For example, corn farmers in the US farm belt received so much rain, it greatly affected their yield USA - China trade war (might be resolved soon, maybe) China building up inventory supply at tide water to get more leverage in contract negotiation Potash Production Tax Credit cut in 2019 by the Saskatchewan government **** However, in the medium to long term people need to eat and with millions of people being lifted out of poverty and into better circumstances, demand for potash will be there Will be adding on further weakness
TSX:NTR
by Magneto_616