The Weekend Market: An Analysis of Bitcoin Price MovementsOver the weekend, the bitcoin price experienced another $1000 rise. The bullish sentiment among weekend traders caused the price to break through the monthly level of $23,301 and reach new heights. Currently, the price ranges below the weekly level of $24,297.5 after front-running the weekly naked point of control at $23,970 with a $3 margin.
The direction of today's price action will be heavily influenced by the performance of the stock market and the US Dollar Index (DXY). From previous price movements, we can observe that the DXY is showing signs of weakness, while both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and bitcoin are demonstrating strength. This suggests that we see a continuation of these trends.
Based on this analysis, there are three potential scenarios for the future of the bitcoin price.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin may experience a dip down to test the monthly and new daily levels at $23,021. At this level, there is a confluence of factors, including the point of control for the entire range, a 0.618 Fibonacci level, and a new daily level. This dip may give the market a sense of acceptance within the current range, trap late shorts, and prompt a continuation of the upward trend.
Scenario 2: The price may hover above the monthly level and continue upward, eventually reaching the weekly level of $24,297.5. This would signify a continuation of the current bull trend.
Scenario 3: Alternatively, the price may continue to fall because of a failed auction, punishing late longs. The price may also fall back within the current range and continue to range.
As a first sign of weakness, we will observe the price spending more time between the point of control and the Value area low of the current range, and if it falls below the 4-hour order block level of $22,287. In this case, we may expect the price to dip and test the daily level of $20,673. If this level does not hold, further downward price action may be expected.
