Rsi-convergence
#AUD/USD #bullish precursorAUD/USD has formed new structure recently showing signs of a trend reversal. Whether this continues to hold longer or not is for price action to reveal. As for now, a potential bullish continuation is brewing after what seems like a shall retracement. The close of price action by end of day as a low test bar above ~0.7250, where price has found support, will further confirm potential bullish intentions in price. Other than that the reasons for going long are:
rejection of 50 ema;
a rising 50 ema;
rejection and close above 0.382 Fibonacci level; and
convergence on Stochastic and RSI indicators.
entry - above high of low test bar
stop loss - below low of low test bar
target - at or above previous high/resistance area around 0.7400
Short again on AUD/USDAnother short set up on AUDUSD since downward momentum on the previous set up (idea linked) failed is on offer. The present set up comes after a deeper pull back, organic in a sense, into the 50 ema which also lines up with a previous level of support (~0.7250), now acting as resistance, and the 0.618 FIbonacci level. Price closed as a high test bar. Oscillator convergence is visible.
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - at or below previous low
A sell-off may continue on the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and UK100On the S&P 500 and NASDAQ100 indices, closing as a high test bar in the resistance zone, and a bearish engulfing bar on the FTSE100 (UK100) stock index, a sell setup is in order suggesting potential bearish continuation on these three (CFD) indices, following the recent sell off on major indices.
1. S&P 500
The rejection/resistance zone on the S&P 500 comprises the following:
- retest of the 50 ema;
- retest of ~2011; and
- 50% retracement, and close below.
Oscillator convergence, as shown on the chart, is seen as an additional argument to enter a potential continuation of seller based momentum in this index.
entry - below high test bar
stop loss - above high bar
target - previous low or lower
2. NAS100
Since the major global indices demonstrate price behaviour correlation, an almost exact set up as on the S&P 500 is also forming on the NAS100.
entry - below high test bar
stop loss - above high test bar
target - previous low or lower
3. UK100
The FTSE100 is in a very clear down trending environment. Three key reasons of a potential continued price decline are:
- close as a bearish engulfing bar;
- a strong bout of resistance at ~6250; and
- rejection of the 20 ema.
entry - below low of bearish enguling bar
stop loss - above high of bearish engulfing bar
target - at previous low or lower
Long USD/CADAlthough the retracement/pullback on this pair is quite shallow my reasons for taking a long position are:
- Bullish/reversal bar following 2 seller bars
- Support at 1.3100 with close above
- 8 ema rejection/support and close above
- 0.382 Fibonacci level rejection and close above
- Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - above high of low test bar
stop loss - below low of low test bar
target - above previous high for at least a 1:1 Reward:Risk trade
Long Pound-KiwiWith the following noted a long scenario appears to be in play:
- bullish reversal bar (near resemblance to bullish pin bar/low test bar)
- resistance becomes support (at ~2.3260 which stands out as a weekly level dating back to November 2009 )
- retest of 20 ema and close above
- trend line support (third touch)
- Rejection of 0.618 Fibonacci level and 50% retracement line, and close above
- Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - above high of today's bar
stop loss - below low of today's bar
target - previous swing high or higher
Selling EUR/USDLooking at the following to sell EUR/USD:
- inside bar
- 50 ema rejection
- resistance at @1.1100
- Fibonacci cluster:
- 0.786 Fibonacci level rejection from previous swing high to swing low and closes below
- 50% retracement between first swing high at the top of the trend line and closes below
- trend line rejection
- Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - below low of inside bar
stop loss - above high of mother bar
target - previous swing low or lower
Sell sign on EUR/GBPUsing the following to back a short entry on EUR/GBP on the daily chart:
- inside bar
- resistance at ~0.7120
- mother candle rejects:
- 50 ema and closes below
- 0.786 Fibonacci level and closes below
- Fibonacci cluster
- falling trend line for the 4th time closing within the downward trend channel
- Stochastic hidden bearish divergence (comparison of swing highs), and Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - below low of inside bar
stop loss - above high of mother bar
target - previous swing low or lower
A trade I've taken on GoldAlthough looking a bit choppy, the bigger picture on Gold still shows an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price has touched the floor at ~1180 and rejected the trend line for a third time giving a bullish engulfing and doji bar yesterday, together with rejecting the 0.786 Fibonacci level and closing above it. Stochastic and RSI are in convergence and are just about hooking up to rise after being in oversold territory.
Short AUD/JPYThe AUD/JPY daily chart displays consecutive lower highs and lower lows with a potential short setup to continue the visible falling trend (supported also by downward trendline). The current corrective phase seems to be running out of steam in initiation of a potential impulsive phase, with the production of a bearish reversal price bar:
- ricocheting off a previous level at ~95.20;
- rejecting the 50% retracement level which is contiguous to 95.20;
- bouncing off and (most likely) closing below the 50 ema; and
- bumping into the falling trend line encountering resistance.
Convergence is observable on RSI and hidden divergence on Stochastic. Both Stochastic and RSI are in overbought territory and are ostensibly preparing for a reversal.
Entry - below the low of today's bearish reversal bar close
Stop loss - above the high of today's bearish reversal bar close
Target - first profit taking zone at previous low/swing low (91.75), and possibly lower at 91.00 if swing low violated
* Ignore the placement of the arrow indicating RSI convergence.