RTY1!
Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Russell 2000 (RTY)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
SPY SPX NASDAQ S&P500 ES are not going to dumpA "head and shoulders" pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that can indicate a potential reversal in a stock's price trend. It consists of three peaks: a higher peak (the head) between two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern suggests a potential shift from an upward trend to a downward trend.
However, the effectiveness of technical patterns like head and shoulders can vary, and they don't always accurately predict market movements. Market behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors including economic indicators, company performance, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and more.
"Complex correction" typically refers to a more intricate and prolonged market correction, which is a decline in stock prices from recent highs. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can be caused by various factors like overvaluation, economic downturns, or other negative events.
It's important to note that making accurate predictions about market movements is extremely challenging, even for experts. If you're considering investing or making financial decisions, it's advisable to do thorough research, consider a diversified approach, and consult with financial professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
RTY1!8.14.22 Yesterday I gave you my overview of the Russell and the es mini from a longer timeframe perspective. I went back and took a shorter timeframe perspective on the Russell, and compare it to the longer time frame thinking. I tried to discuss the advantages and disadvantages. I tried to describe a psychological aspect from my point of view, and I'm very much aware in my own trade decisions what the triggers are for my stress. Most of the time I would say that you should look at the Behavior of the market in an "objective "way...based on your observations of market behavior...which can definitely be done, but not all the time. The example I pointed to in this video found the reversal point, but the market came back close to it without making a new low 4 weeks, and from my point of view that's going to be a tough trade for me... and explain why. It doesn't matter if the market never goes below my entry, It doesn't really appeal to me to stay long in a market that doesn't move any significant range off the bottom and for three or four weeks it keeps on coming down to my entry. That is not my concept of Joyful Trading index futures. That's a function of me, not the market. Take a look at it and see what you think as it pertains to you.
Rty1! ES8.13.22 The Russell and the ES have foolish Swings, but the bigger pattern suggests that these markets will move lower and possibly make new lows. The bigger picture is that we are probably in a significant bear market....And I would be waiting for my trigger too short....As well as taking profits on the swing higher.