Revolve Group (RVLV) AnalysisCompany Overview: Revolve Group, a leading online fashion retailer catering to younger customers, continues to stand out by leveraging AI for personalized shopping experiences and maintaining premium pricing strategies. The company’s ability to integrate technology into its operations provides a competitive advantage in the e-commerce fashion space.
Key Highlights:
Q2 Performance: Co-CEO Mike Karanikolas emphasized Revolve’s strong Q2 performance, driven by improved marketing and logistics. Notably, the company also achieved a reduction in return rates, marking the first decrease in over three years—a significant accomplishment for an online retailer.
Customer Growth: Revolve's active customers increased by 9% year-over-year, with total orders rising by 3%. This demonstrates strong customer engagement and brand loyalty, vital metrics for sustained growth.
Competitive Edge: Revolve’s ability to balance personalized offerings with premium pricing, supported by AI, enhances its appeal to fashion-conscious consumers and bolsters its market positioning.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:RVLV if it holds above the $20.00-$21.00 range. Upside Potential: The upside target for Revolve Group is set at $33.00-$34.00, driven by strong customer engagement, effective cost management, and the company's innovative use of AI.
👗 Revolve Group—leading fashion e-commerce with AI innovation and strong customer growth! #RVLV #FashionTech 🚀📈
RVLV
RVLV Bearish inclined Naked Calls 25 Feb Expiry (Feb Track 3)On TD the contract price was 0.45 and so I decided to just enter 0.6 and to my surprise the order got filled immediately.
I think next time I will start with a high Ask price and slowly bring it closer to the Bid
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
This position is a play on the micro economics and less on the health of the company
There will be an interest rate hike in March and I expect late Feb will show people speculating on this number or at least the impact on consumers and the companies
While Revolve group is online ecommerce. Omicron with it’s high infection rates i’m sure will already be impacting it’s physical Supply Chain
Purely looking at the daily chart and not making any predictions the price is downtrending and has broken the 54 Support and Resistance line.
Price movement downward has also been very decisive with no recovery from Omicron and the Fed Interest Rate Decision
This chart also mirrors ETF XRT and all the other companies within the internet retail sector
I Feel
I was struggling yesterday thinking how to approach identifying this trade. But now that I’ve identified the sector it feels painfully obvious.
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
As we just broke the Resistance line there is a chance that this could be a a fake breakout and snap upwards in a range
There are some price resistance on $51
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
I won’t enter this trade with a Bullish stance the price action down is too rapid. With the inflation at an all time high, the Fed will be going hard on mitigating and bringing the inflation numbers down
Look For New Information
I read an article on Marketbeat that was posted on the 10 Jan, indicating Revolve as buy. But I’m entering this trade with a micro economics lens.
How Do I Feel Now
I am unable to convince myself that this is not a good opportunity to sell calls. But there is an obvious mental bias. I think if I was really presented options it would be Sell Calls or Don’t Trade. Selling Puts feels the most risky
I do wish the strike was protected by a support line but the support line at $74 is too far away and there are no good contracts. The $70 is 35% away from the last close (13 Jan) and near a broken 54 Resistance
Trade Specs
Sold 167 Calls @ 0.6 - Strike 70
% to Strike 37.96%
ATR % is 50%
BP used 89K
RVLV Bearish inclined Naked Calls 12 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 2)VolOp Launch
This is the first trade where I adjust my position sizing to account for the rising volatility in a ranging market that seem to have deeper drops whenever there are issues.
I call this stance in my plan "VolOp" and while it results in a 1% drop in my monthly target. It should weather my contracts better. This current adjustment is mainly based on YTD trades and increases my margin amount to 114k
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought - RVLV
Bearish inclined position for RVLV
Overall Market is Ranging with negative news or concerns moving the market deeper vs positive news.
The discretionary retail sector seems tied to major macro issues like supply chain and the increasing cost of importing goods
RVLV is in a ranging pattern now. I have selected it as it is part of XRT holdings. I would prefer to enter XRT as it covers more companies. However it's options prices are terrible
RVLV is the right price and previously on 5 Aug, while it had shown a solid earnings report. The company's conservative positioning caused a huge -24% drop. This shows in my opinion a lack of commitment and belief in the company's success and performance
I Feel
I was very happy when I spotted this trade. I think this is a good strategy to take. Looking at companies that are aligned to the overall movement of the ETF. Especially when the ETF has terrible prices
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
RVLV has over exceeded earnings expectations for the part 3 quarters. This aligned with market optimism could fuel a bullish rush
While it is ranging. The price movement has generally been higher lows
12 Oct News - Net sales increased 60% year-over-year to $228 million (and 41% over Q2 2019), while diluted net profit more than doubled compared to the year-ago period to $0.42 per share.
12 Oct News - Domestic net sales were up 59% and international net sales increased 63%. Gross margin increased 517 basis points to 55.6%, benefitting from healthy inventory levels and consumer demand dynamics. Also helping were higher sales at full-price and a decrease in “the depth of markdowns.”
Strangely despite the positive news RVLV hardly moved
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The current price movement is ranging. with current highs not exceeding previous highs
Any position needs to be outside of the range
Look For New Information
I found very strong bullish news on the company and it's business
12 Oct News - Net sales increased 60% year-over-year to $228 million (and 41% over Q2 2019), while diluted net profit more than doubled compared to the year-ago period to $0.42 per share. (I also pasted this on the Other Side)
12 Oct News - Domestic net sales were up 59% and international net sales increased 63%. Gross margin increased 517 basis points to 55.6%, benefitting from healthy inventory levels and consumer demand dynamics. Also helping were higher sales at full-price and a decrease in “the depth of markdowns.”(I also pasted this on the Other Side)
How Do I Feel Now
I'm ready and confident to press the trigger - Sell calls!
Trade Specs
Sold 68 CALLS @ 0.8 Strike 90
% to Strike 29.48%
ATR % IS AROUND 47%
BP used 47K
Max Gain: est $5440
$RVLV Falling WedgeFalling Wedge
$RVLV falling wedge broke out yesterday. Need to break & hold $21 for more upside, target as high as $24. One of about 100 falling wedges in market right now.
A bonus to this trade:
$ULTA looking for a sustained move above $226.
Another bonus since $ULTA isn't a falling wedge
$PLAY Falling wedge broke out. Looking for $16 and possibly $16.75
RVLV - Something's boilingHello Everyone! Let's look at RVLV which is going through what it appears to be a consolidation period.
Price has been trading last thirteen days sticked to its 20 and 50 sma daily, mmmmhhhh.....approaching Q2 earnings release next week it seems something's boiling....
This kind of behaviour looks bullish to me, a kind of building energy for the next leg up, and as I wrote on my latest idea on RVLV, I expect good data coming out from this Q2, which might drive the price back to its previous higher at area 21 usd.
Write down your comments below if you like to do that and....may the market be with us!
RVLV - Gap filled, what next ?Hello Everyone!
Revolve filled the gap today, what next ?
Basically we have two scenario :
North direction, still have fuel to reach 21,00 level, previous resistance.
South direction, price will likely retrace as RSI is overbought and too far from 20 and 50 moving averages, nice retrace will be the high of the candle of the 14th of May where price has been rejected recently, from there if bounce back, might potentially reach the higher target.
Next earning release will be early August, I am expecting good data from this online retailer.
Leave a comments below if you like to do that and.....may the market be with us...!