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BTC - H4 - CURRENTLY IN A TRANSITION ZONE !H4 : The 58400 important support area mentioned yesterday worked perfectly well, coupled with the failure to breakout both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen (Base line). This rejection triggered a nice upside move, once again above the 60'000.. but it did not hold above it.. so far. No change in my view, as long as clear breakout of the 60'000 in holding sustainably above it the downside risk is still present ¨ TWO IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH ON A H4 CLOSING BASIS : 60100 ON THE UPSIDE 58400 ON THE DOWNSIDE Indeed 2 closing prices above or below one of those levels will show a new trading range for the upcoming trading hours Watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the expected scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice Sunday All the best Take care and have fun
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC- D1 - NICE RECOVERY... AND STILL IN A BEARISH MODE...D1 : After having nearly reached the expected target which were respectively 50187 (61.8% Fib ret) and the psychological support level of 50'000 in moving down towards an intraday low of 50360, the BTC recovered nicely towards an intraday high so far of 55597. This recent price action triggered a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) which on its upside move broke the Kijun-Sen line (currently @ 54037) but failed on a closing basis, yesterday to move above Tenkan-Sen (currently @ 55158), where we are at the moment. Interesting that this long bullish candle did not trigger a big volume !!! Key resistance area on D1 basis, remains Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 56163) which also coincides with the current downtrend line resistance level. Therefore, unless a clear breakout of this zone occurs soon, recent and current price action should still be seen as a "NICE" corrective move only.. in a still ongoing bearish picture. Watch H4 and shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get clues about further intraday development which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice weekend and have fun All the best Take care and do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and follow me Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 48455H4 : Triangle target is @ 48455. Nevertheless, as mentioned, in my previous D1 post, it is likely and it is in progress, to see some recovery process which is expected to be relatively limited. Indeed, global picture remains heavy and is calling for further downside. Tenkan-Sen (@ 54355) will be the first resistance level to break ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band (@55110) A recovery above the latter level would neutralise, at least on short term, the current downside risk. Interesting to note the thickness of the clouds resistance area which is indicating some fragility as seen on the downside breakout, a couple days ago ! Watch H1 and M15 to get potential corrective targets
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US10 Y - TREND REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...D1 : Recent price action is showing a trend reversal in progress. Indeed, last Friday a "doji" (uncertainty and indecision) took place which has been followed yesterday by a bearish engulfing pattern ! Today's ongoing price action continue to move to the downside. Watch carefully the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion Line, currently @ 1.6140 as the first important support and last but not least, at the MID BOLLINGER BAND, "T H E L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R", currently @ 1.5620 as a pivot level for the ongoing session (s) If you find my analysis valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like and follow me Have a nice trading day All the best Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1 - NICE RECOVERY...BUT !D1 : Despite a new downtrend which took place before yesterday, price action shown yesterday (thanks to the FED !) triggered a nice recovery towards a high reached early this morning @ 59559 (might be a sign as I was born in 19.. 59, no I am joking...) That said, despite this, not negligeable recent rally (+ roughly 10 % in a couple of hours), BTC did not managed to recover above the primary uptrend support line which should still be seen as one of the important level to break on the upside in order to get out of this remaining bearish pressure as for the time being, unfortunately recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move. 57500 on the downside is the first significant support level to look at which is also the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) ! Indeed, a failure to hold above this area would directly put the focus on the secondary support trend line which for the time being rejected several downside breakout attempts. Last but not least, Mid Bollinger Band, THE LEADING INDICATOR, is @ 53255 ! In order to give additional support for an upside continuation move, we clearly need to see a breakout of the psychological resistance level of 60000 (also the area of the primary uptrend support line). Watch shorter time frames H4, H1 and M15 to get clues about upcoming price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - A NEW DOWNTREND IS TAKING PLACE...D1 : Last 2 trading sessions is showing a switch from a BULL mode to a BEAR one. Indeed, looking at the last 2 closing sessions we can see 2 black candles with the one of yesterday, closing "timidly" just above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line). Today's ongoing price action is currently under that level, in having already tested the secondary uptrend support line. A new downtrend line (in red) took place and should now, be seen as the level to break in order to neutralise the current ongoing bearish move; interesting to note that, the resistance area to break, coincides roughly with the former D1 closing high @ 57500 reached on Feb 21st. 50 % Fib ret (43021-61781) @ 52401 ! CONCLUSION : In D1 time frame, as long as BTC does not recover and hold above 57500, global picture should be seen BEARISH. A failure to hold above both Kijun-Sen (Base line) @ 52401 ahead of Mid Bollinger Band (Leading indicator) @ 51908 would confirm further downside in opening the door for the 50000 psychological support... which is also roughly the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 43021-61781 rally (@50187). Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care Ironman@8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !H4 : Mid Bollinger Band continue to perform very well as the leading indicator and worked once again perfectly well in rejecting a downside breakout attempt seen on the last H4 candle. As long as we stay and hold on H4 closing basis above MBB it is OK; however, a failure to do it would open a new trading range with its next support around the 58000 area (Kinjun-Sen or Base Line @ 58025 and also the middle level of the ongoing uptrend channel. 61.8 % Fib ret @ 57597 For scenarios, pls see my previous D1 analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - STILL ABOVE THE PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINED1 : Yesterday's price action is showing some sign of loss of momentum: nevertheless, as long as D1 closing price remains above the primary uptrend support line, it is OK. Indeed, a double top formation in progress can not, for the time being totally be ruled out ! Scenario BULLISH : An upside breakout on a D1 closing basis of the former high @ 61781 occurs and then next significant target would be around the 65000 area Scenario BEARISH : A failure to hold on D1 closing, above the primary uptrend support line, currently around 58350 would directly put the focus on the 57500 area (former congestion zone); below watch 55357 (Tenkan-Sen & conversion line) and secondary support trend line. Therefore, watch, very carefully, ongoing price action, on shorter time frames (H4,H1 and M15) in order to detect early signal (s) of a potential trend reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - SHORT TERM REVERSAL ! YES OR NO ?H4 : As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis (W1) published early this morning, a corrective and healthy downside move took place and reached an intraday low, so far at 59350, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement @ 59194 ! Last H4 closing candle triggered a doji pattern which is showing some uncertainty about the upcoming hours. In addition, you can see that at current level, the BTC is again reenter in the uptrend channel. Therefore, I would suggest, to watch carefully, the following levels : BULLISH : Consider 61000-61100 as the first short term resistance area which, in order to neutralise the ongoing dowside risk; indeed, an upside breakout confirmed of this zone would be the first signal that the correction has been short lived and is over and would open the door for a retest of the previous high @ 61781. BEARISH : * S1 : 59194 (38.2% Fib ret) and also the top level of the broadening wedge pattern ! * S2 : 58931 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line) *** S3 : 58396 & 58342 (50% Fib ret - Mid Bollinger Band Interesting to note the former congestion zone resistance (56500-57500) which is becoming now, a new support zone (57500-56500) ! Watch development on shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get early signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice afternoon. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - Upside breakout confirmation !D1 : The upside breakout confirmation has been given by the second daily closing above both Mid Bollinger Band (leading indicator !) and Kijun-Sen (Base line). In addition the clear breakout of the downtrend channel gave also additionnal support for further upside calling now for the 55000 area as the first significant target (55072 being the 78.6% Fib ret of the 58354-43021 downside move) ahead of a retest of former high @ 58354 (which is also, roughly the technical target of the triangle pattern, see H4 comments below As we are now in a bullish mode, former resistance cluster (KS and MBB around 50500 becomes the new support area to look at and as long as we stay above this zone and the 50000 psychological level, any downside move should be seen as a consolidation & corrective move in a new bullish trend . Usually after a breakout we should see a pullback towards the breakout area and which should be used, if seen as a good opportunity to get in in putting tight stop loss below 50000 H4 : The scenario A (BULLISH) won the battle ! Indeed, recent price action is showing a clear triangle upside breakout targeting 58058 ! Nevertheless, even if the indicators are pointing to the North, it is likely to see some consolidation which should, as mentioned above in D1, be seen as a corrective move only and used as a better opportunity to get in. See development on H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - TENKAN-SEN UNDER ATTACK !H4 : After the strong triangle breakout and as expected BTC lost momentum and last candle triggered a bearish engulfing pattern. For the time being, the first support (Tenkan-Sen) hold; nevertheless, technical indicators are switching from the sideways to the downside which may be the first signal (s) of a short term trend reversal. A failure to hold above TS @ 53554 would put the focus on MBB @ 51992 (roughly the level of the triangle breakout, such kind of correction would complete the expected pullback and if occurs, it should be seen as the REAL TEST of a successful upside breakout. Indeed, it is crucial, in order, to maintain the bullish tone, to stay and hold above 51500 (Kijun-Sen) as a failure to do it would invalidate the triangle pattern and reopen the door for lower levels. Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice trading day. All the best Have fun and take care.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - INTRADAY HIGH @ 55855, BUT...D1 : Another long white bullish candle has been triggered yesterday; today's ongoing price action is showing, for the time being another kind of picture. Indeed, after having, on one hand filled the Fibonacci retracement extension (78.6% @ 55072) and even pushing higher to an intraday high of 55855, BTC has been rejected by the former primary uptrend support trend line, which became a resistance. As a result, BTC reversed and is currently traded in the middle of the new uptrend channel in an ongoing bearish price action. Nevertheless, as we are on D1 observation, we need to wait the level today's closing to get confirmation of the upcoming development. SCENARIO A : BEARISH A daily closing below 53678 would trigger a dark cloud cover pattern which would already be the first signal of a trend reversal and a closing below the opening of yesterday's session @ 52427 would trigger a bearish engulfing pattern. A failure to hold above the former pivot level of 51530 would put the focus on the first significant support area, which is the cluster of the three following : Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band, being respectively @ 51074, 50687 and 50666. SCENARIO B : BULLISH A daily closing above yesterday's closing would be supportive for further upside having in mind a retest of the top zone of February (58000-58350)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress. (trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation) A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal) Global Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS- 2 SCENARIOS !H4 : Within the broadening wedge formation a triangle formation is is progress ! Scenario A : Upside breakout would open the door for the 58000 area or retest of former high. A failure to hold above TS @ 50575 ahead of MBB @ 49554 would invalidate the upside potential breakout and put the focus on the following scenario. Do not rule out also a potential BULL TRAP with a double top pattern in H4 !!! Scenario B : A breakout of MBB support line would then put the focus on the clouds support zone and a failure to hold above the clouds would open the for door for lower levels towards the 42000 area Watch H1 where there is still a Head and Shoulder formation in progress to get clues about validation or invalidation of this triangle breakout
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - D1 - LAST CLOSING ABOVE MBB...D1 : Yesterday's long bullish white candle triggered a closing level above the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen as a first positive signal for an upside continuation price action. Nevertheless, I would suggest to remain extremely cautious following this "shy" upside breakout of both, MBB and channel downtrend line resistance. Indeed, before switching from BEARISH to BULLISH, we clearly need to have a strong confirmation of this breakout in order to avoid a BULL TRAP !!! Therefore, ongoing price action over the coming hours and more important today's closing level would either validate or invalidate the yesterday's breakout. See H4 below for additional information on shorter time frame H4 : As shown the upside breakout of both clouds and downtrend channel still looks fragile... Indeed, successive small candles are showing some indecision and uncertainty about further development either on the upside or on the downside. BTC is currently traded in the upside pivot zone trading range (50000-52650) and a clear breakout of the former high @ 52650 woul add further support for a continuation upside move. On the other side, former top resistance line of the downtrend channel ahead of Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 50053, should be seen as the first short term support level, ahead of the former "cluster" of both Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen (Base line) which is the first significant support area being slightly above the 49000 area and last but not least the top of the clouds support zone (49000-47800) ! Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate validation or invalidation signal (s) Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ATTEMPT !H4 : Recent recovery from the bottom of the clouds which worked perfectly well as a support area, we can see now a breakout attempt of the top of the H4 clouds in progress ! Important to note that, not only the top of the clouds are under attack but also the Kijun-Sen (Base line). Therefore, closing level of the ongoing H4 price action will be important to watch at. Indeed, a breakout success of the clouds would be the first signal of a potential upside move continuation putting the focus on the second obstacle to go through, which is the current top (dotted line) of the ongoing downtrend channel. Such kind of price action would then open the door for the pivot trading zone ranging from the psychological 50000 level and the former high @ 52650. On the other side, an upside breakout failure, would then put the focus on the "CLUSTER" of 48600-48500 (Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) and once again the bottom of the clouds support zone ! Below watch the support pivot zone ranging from 46300 (previous lows and 43000 Feb 28th low) Watch H1 and M15 to get early signal (s).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - STILL UNDER THE MID BOLLINGER BAND !D1 : Still in a broad bearish channel and below the Mid Bollinger Band. Yesterday's price action triggered a doji ("hanging man" or "dragonfly", confirmation will be given on D1 closing) ! Globally, as long as BTC does not breakout the downdrend channel first and does not move and hold above MBB and Kijun-Sen (Base line), price action seen over the last couple of sessions remains a corrective move in a bear trend. As told several times, ONLY a CLEAR breakout confirmation of the "CLUSTER" three levels above mentioned, would force to a view reassessment of the current scenario which potentially may change from bearish to bullish. On the downside, watch Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 47836, as the first significant support. In the meantime watch shorter time frames to get intermediate clues for ongoing price action Have a nice Sunday and have fun. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 : CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...H4 : Currently in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen ! As mentioned earlier in my D1 analysis, the H4 clouds support zone, so far, worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakout attempts... Current price action is showing a sideways move between Tenkan-Sen level on the downside and MBB & Kijun-Sen on the upside. Therefore, on short term, those area should be watch at very carefully as a breakout of one of those area will show the direction for the upcoming trading period. The clouds should also be considered as a good indicator as we should see soon or later either an upside or a downside breakout. For the time being, recent and current price action is likely to trigger a downside breakout of the clouds. In order to monitor intermediate price action in waiting the next H4 closing, watch carefully H1 and M15 to get early signal of change in the expected bearish scenario. Have a nice weekend, have fun, all the best and take care Hope my analysis bring you some added value in your trading decision and if you like it, many thanks to give me a like and also add me in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator. Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB; Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday low of 46294 early this morning. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it. It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance level to break ! In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important. H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel. Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt. Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips. In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames. Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing level slightly above MBB. Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000. Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s) H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame ! Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly lower, the clouds bottom zone Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow : UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650 DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000 Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000) Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance. On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area. M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear trend. Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break. A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1