Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Market Sentiment:
Overall Bias: Slightly bearish with range-bound possibilities unless a breakout/breakdown occurs.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: 78,000 (Immediate), 78,400 (Major).
Support Levels: 77,400 (Immediate), 77,200 (Critical).
Rationale for the Trade Setups:
Intraday Sell Setup:
A breakdown below 77,400 will trigger selling pressure, with targets at 77,200 and 77,000 due to high put writing and liquidity below.
Confidence Level: High, supported by FII/DII bearish positions and price action.
Intraday Buy Setup:
A breakout above 78,000 may trigger a gamma squeeze, with rapid movement toward 78,400 and 78,500 due to unwinding of call positions.
Confidence Level: Moderate, requires confirmation with volume.
Key Observations:
Option Chain Analysis:
Strong call writing at 78,000, making it a crucial resistance.
Heavy put writing at 77,400, indicating immediate support.
Implied Volatility (IV):
Slight increase (+2%), indicating expectations of higher volatility.
Gamma Squeeze Potential:
Above 78,000: Possible sharp upside move to 78,500.
Below 77,200: Potential downside acceleration to 77,000.
Execution Plan:
Buy Above 78,000: Wait for a 15-minute candle close above 78,000 with volume confirmation.
Sell Below 77,400: Enter on a clear breakdown below 77,400 with strong momentum.
Additional Notes:
Maintain tight stop-losses due to expiry-day volatility.
FIIs are net bearish in index futures; this reinforces the downside bias.
Range-bound expiry is possible if the index remains between 77,400-78,000.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or trading advice.Please consult with a certified financial advisor and use your discretion before making any trading decisions.
