Bitcoin's Last StretchIn this graph right here, I'll show what i believe is the last 5 wave structure before the big kahoona. Now, this isn't so much the big bold prediction of Bitcoin's next crash, but I think we can all agree that it's likely to happen. I'll actually post another prediction on Bitcoin for it's big correction. However, for now, lets look into what is in store before we get a major correction. Bitcoin itself is one hell of a Beast, and predicting it is already tough enough as it is. But I think now we have enough information to predict the next few waves.
Now, Bitcoin is finishing up its wave 2 correction. At first I thought we may have had one more subwave up, while there was one hefty buy wall of $1.3M on Bittrex at $16250. And that ONE (yes ONE) person moved the buy wall to $15500 and then to $15000 and ended up being my saving grace. Talk about market manipulation... But it turns out we just got a strong wave 1, with a somewhat truncated 5th wave in that first wave up. Now with this current correction i am now positive that that was wave 1. And we even have a nice confirmation on the 1hr MACD. The correction lead to a .5 fib retrace and it might double bottom at the $15100 level or a little lower, but i am very positive this is near the end correction. But what the hell do i know. Here on the chart i'm extrapolating a 1 to 1 Fib extension for wave 3 and a 1.618 to 1 fib extension for wave 5. This isn't likely, but we must always look out for extended waves, which could possibly happen.
Now, in the short term I am long. And I am going to give some ranges for our target to hit. If you try to give exact numbers, well.. you're always going to fail.
Target 1: $19,262 - $20,369
Remember that people like to dump at positive numbers, its a very market-psych thing to do. So I'm actually expecting a dump around $20,000. If thats the case then we are likely for a retrace to the .328 area at $18219. It could even go lower IF and only IF wave 3 extends above that range and gives more room for a wave 4 correction to the .618 level with the lowest possible correction of being at $17,131 with just the wick. But I'm expecting this next run to be fairly bullish and not have a large retrace.
Target 2: $21,631 - $23,043
Remember, these targets are only for Bittrex. It may defer on other trading sites have different prices for Bitcoin. Which is terrible for cryptocurrency, but I'm not gonna get into that now. Now this target (at least to me) could be the one that is VERY important to get out of once it reaches it. And my next screenshot could possibly show you why.
Short-short
BTC 31st of November to December 8th PitchforIt's probable price will stay toward lower half of middle zone before breaking to lower resistance sometime around the CBOE futures auction on the 10th and the start of their trading on Monday. The price will break below pitchfork where a new analysis will be necessary.
ADUS- Support breakdown short from $31.63 to $25.17ADUS seems breaking down from an upward channel. Moneyflow going sharp down. Overall interesting short setup.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- November 9, 2017
Pattern/Why- Support breakdown short, capturing the crash
Entry Target Criteria- wait for a break below $31.63 (hit November 14, 2017)
Exit Target Criteria- $25.17
Stop Loss Criteria- $34.33
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
MRO Short Term BearishOn November 07, 2017 MRO had a high wick reach $16.59 before closing down for the day. I believe this to be a good resistance line for now due to that same price range (give or take a few pennies) acting as Resistance in April 2017, March 2017, February 2017, November 2016, September 2016, August 2016, and September 2015; as well as acting as Support briefly in October and November 2015. Even though the past couple of days (November 09-10, 2017) have seen green candlesticks , they have been moving down in price. I purchased a December Put, Strike 17, on 11-09-17 for $1.65 (the spread at the time of purchase was $1.62-$1.65). The Stock price at time of purchase was $15.70.
$14.12-$14.16 has been a general line of Support in August 2015, Resistance in December 2015, Support again in September through November 2016, Support in March and May 2017, and then acting as Resistance for a couple weeks in October 2017. Due to that activity I believe it possible for MRO to retrace to that area again; and because of that I have targeted that area as my sell point. I expect it to take no longer than three weeks to reach that area of Support.
If you draw lines of Support at $14.12/$14.16 and Resistance at $16.60ish I can see a channel/rolling pattern from August to November 2016 and briefly from March to April 2017. If MRO does hit my estimated Support I will wait a few days to see if once again it rises in price to repeat that pattern and becomes ripe for a "double dip," or the opportunity to enter a Bullish/Call play almost immediately after exiting a Bearish/Put play.
Previous support becomes resistance - Bitcoin short opportunity!I am not a short term trader, but I do see an excellent shorting opportunity here for Bitcoin traders. Our previous support (upward sloping red trendline) has come back into play. What was once support will now act as resistance. And in this kind of uncertainty, right here ($2150) is an excellent opportunity for short term traders to sell Bitcoin! Target back down to the $1830-1840 level. Take half off halfway down.
IIIN - Key Support Breakdown short from $29.80 to $26.74IIIN seems falling breaking some key support area. Moneyflow is deep in the negative side. We think it will decline further.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- June 7, 2017
Pattern/Why- Key Support Breakdown short
Entry Target Criteria- Rally to $29.80 or break below $28.87
Exit Target Criteria- $26.74
Stop Loss Criteria- $31.47
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
MSFT Always Drops When This HappensMicrosoft has been in a bull trend since 2012. On six occasions through this bull, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at the same or higher levels than they are now. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may dip while it most likely continues its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 75. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is oversold.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2626 and the negative is at 0.7155. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive VI is currently at an extreme level to which it and the stock always retreats from.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.1109 and D value is 87.9759. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought, and the stock should decline in the next few days.
Since the current long-term bull began, there have been six times when the RSI and positive VI were at or above their current close price while the stochastic was overbought. These occasions led to a drop in the stock. The median drop occurs over 8.5 trading days and results in a 4.34% loss. The minimum drop on these occasions is 3.58%.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 3% over the next 28 trading days if not sooner.
XAUUSD shorting a major trendline pullbackXAUUSD seems to have hit a major trend line causing it to pullback significantly. The current sell-off is merely a temporary correction, which once finished will resume the gold rally which had begun previously earlier. This rally should have the strength to break past the major trend line, causing gold to rally up to the predicted $1300 levels. If the sell-off continues with no buyers entering, then there will perhaps be an alternate continuous bearish trend for the commodity, with prices falling below the previous bottoms from before.
...Eur/Usd Short Forming ......Good weekend to you traders. We have a possible short forming on Eur/Usd. With the French elections coming very soon be very careful as volatility will be strong. I will be waiting for Asia open to see the position of price action and determine my entry and target ranges to scalp. hope it helps...
-Peace