CADCHF Bullissh or Bearish ??? Detailed analysisCAD/CHF is currently trading at approximately 0.6150, forming a bearish flag pattern—a continuation signal that typically precedes further downward movement. This pattern emerges after a sharp price decline, followed by a consolidation phase characterized by parallel trendlines. A breakout below the flag's lower boundary could potentially lead to a decline of over 100 pips, aligning with the target price of 0.6000.
Fundamental factors support this bearish outlook. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to 2.75%. This move, aimed at stimulating economic growth amid trade tensions and weakened consumer confidence, has exerted downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Conversely, the Swiss franc continues to benefit from its safe-haven status, attracting investors during periods of global uncertainty. Additionally, Switzerland's robust economic data, including a manufacturing PMI of 51.5 and a 4.0% rise in exports, further bolsters the franc's strength.
Technical analysis further reinforces the bearish sentiment. The CAD/CHF pair has been in a steady downtrend, with minor retracements occasionally. Currently, the price is preparing for another retracement aimed at retesting the immediate supply zone. The 4-hour timeframe chart shows that the supply zone falls perfectly between the 76% and 88% Fibonacci retracement levels. The presence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and inducement contribute to the bearish leaning of the market sentiment. Analysts have set a target of 0.6051, with an invalidation point at 0.6231.
Given these technical and fundamental factors, the CAD/CHF pair appears poised for a bearish breakout from the flag pattern. Traders should monitor key support levels and employ robust risk management strategies, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders, to navigate potential market volatility. Staying informed about upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications will also be crucial in effectively capitalizing on this trading opportunity.
