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Sp1

S&P 500 Looking Bearish.............1. Bat Pattern completed on 3-Nov, Went Down After that but again bounced back. 2. Bearish Divergence in Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts. 3. FED meeting in December, Consumer Confidence & GDP Data on 24-Nov Employment on 4 Dec, Stocks tend to fall 20 days Prior to FED meeting (Just an Observation). Scenario 1 - S&P will hit 20 Degree Slope @ 2100 and will Return (20-27 degree slope and 50-59 degree slope are very common in trend). Scenario 2 - S&P will Make New High of 2160 & will Crash.
FX:SPX500Short
by BrokeButBold
2
S&P 500 Historical ReviewAlright, I don't like to be that guy that always thinks that he's smarted than everyone else and likes to try to predict the next big market downturn. Nor do I like to be that guy that writes the previous sentence to feign humility all the while thinking he's doing God's work (Lloyd Blankfein). That being said, here's a chart with two distinct patterns that preceded a market crash. Make of it what you will. We see price wedges at the two preceding market tops with RSI and volume trending down while it is forming.
SP:SPXShort
by fearlessfury
Super Long Term Investment Strategy (Fib Arc Drawn to Bull MRKT)Purpose: This strategy is designed to help you to figure out whether you should position your long term investment account aggressively or defensively. For the purposes of this demonstration, I have drawn my Fibonacci Arc from top of the 2000's Tech Bubble to the bottom of the early 2000's Bear market. Steps: 1. Use Monthly Candles 2. Add a 21 month EMA and a 10 month EMA trendline to your chart 3. Add a standard Coppock Curve below your Chart 4. Draw a Fibonacci Arc from the most recent peak to the most recent bottom of the previous market recession. If the market is in a recession, draw a Fibonacci Arc from the lowest low to the highest level of the previous bull market. To determine safely if a recent peak or trough is the peak of a Bull Market or the Trough of a Bear Market, wait for the EMA crossover and for the Coppock Curve to become negative (after peak) or positive (after trough). Your earliest indication would be the Coppock Curve to turn negative, however there were a few occasions back in the 80's where the Coppock Curve turned negative while the 10 month EMA remained above the 21 month EMA. How to Interpret: The goal of charting this way is to identify when the market will become Bearish or Bullish. This is important because positively identifying a Bear or Bull Market is necessary in order to understand how to position yourself in the market. In a Bull market, you want to diversify your portfolio more aggressively to take advantage of growth. This may involve investing more in common stock than bonds. Likewise in a Bear market you want to diversify your portfolio more defensively. You may choose to hold less common stock and more bonds. Events: Prices near a Fib target on the arc: In a Bear market this may represent an area of support, and in a bull market they will represent a possible area of resistance. Likewise once the price crosses the line, it becomes an area of Support/resistance. Coppock curve turns negative and EMA crossover: This is almost definitely Bearish. During the down trend, expect the price to remain below the 10 month EMA most of the time. Coppock curve turns negative but no EMA crossover: CAUTION. If you have long term aggressive trades that are profitable, you may want to take profit. During this time it is safest to redeversify your portfolio to be more defensive. However a risk loving trader might see this as a opportunity to scoop up cheap common stock. This worked from about 1988 (after the 1987 crash) to about the end of 1989. However in the recent decade, this hasn't AT ALL BEEN THE CASE. Again IT IS SAFEST DURING THIS EVENT TO RE-DIVERSIFY INTO DEFENSIVE POSITIONS. Coppock Curve turns positive but no EMA crossover yet: This likely indicates the end of a Bear Market. It is safe to rediversify back into more aggressive positions. However a risk adverse investor should wait for the 10 month EMA to crossover the 21 Month EMA Coppock Curve turns Positive and EMA crossover: The market is now Bullish. It is safe to rediversify more aggressively to take advantage of the Bull Market. To conclude, this strategy should help you to maximize the returns in your Long-Term investment accounts. Always remember: "What we can learn from the past is that the future will always surprise us".
S
by Rashad
Super Long Term Investment Strategy (Fib Arc Drawn to Bear MRKT)Purpose: This strategy is designed to help you to figure out whether you should position your long term investment account aggressively or defensively. For the purposes of this demonstration, I have drawn my Fibonacci Arc from the bottom after the Tech Bubble pop in 2000 to the peak of the Housing Bubble in 2007. I will post another Chart in which I will draw the Fib Arc from the bottom of the early 2000's Bear Market to the peak of the Tech Bubble. Steps: 1. Use Monthly Candles 2. Add a 21 month EMA and a 10 month EMA trendline to your chart 3. Add a standard Coppock Curve below your Chart 4. Draw a Fibonacci Arc from the most recent peak to the most recent bottom of the previous market recession. If the market is in a recession, draw a Fibonacci Arc from the lowest low to the highest level of the previous bull market. To determine safely if a recent peak or trough is the peak of a Bull Market or the Trough of a Bear Market, wait for the EMA crossover and for the Coppock Curve to become negative. Your earliest indication would be the Coppock Curve to turn negative, however there were a few occasions back in the 80's where the Coppock Curve turned negative while the 10 month EMA remained above the 21 month EMA. How to Interpret: The goal of charting this way is to identify when the market will become Bearish or Bullish. This is important because positively identifying a Bear or Bull Market is necessary in order to understand how to position yourself in the market. In a Bull market, you want to diversify your portfolio more aggressively to take advantage of growth. This may involve investing more in common stock than bonds. Likewise in a Bear market you want to diversify your portfolio more defensively. You may choose to hold less common stock and more bonds. Events: Prices near a Fib target on the arc: In a Bear market this may represent an area of support, and in a bull market they will represent a possible area of resistance. Likewise once the price crosses the line, it becomes an area of Support/resistance. Coppock curve turns negative and EMA crossover: This is almost definitely Bearish. During the down trend, expect the price to remain below the 10 month EMA most of the time. Coppock curve turns negative but no EMA crossover: CAUTION. If you have long term aggressive trades that are profitable, you may want to take profit. During this time it is safest to redeversify your portfolio to be more defensive. However a risk loving trader might see this as a opportunity to scoop up cheap common stock. This worked from about 1988 (after the 1987 crash) to about the end of 1989. However in the recent decade, this hasn't AT ALL BEEN THE CASE. Again IT IS SAFEST DURING THIS EVENT TO RE-DIVERSIFY INTO DEFENSIVE POSITIONS. Coppock Curve turns positive but no EMA crossover yet: This likely indicates the end of a Bear Market. It is safe to rediversify back into more aggressive positions. However a risk adverse investor should wait for the 10 month EMA to crossover the 21 Month EMA Coppock Curve turns Positive and EMA crossover: The market is now Bullish. It is safe to rediversify more aggressively to take advantage of the Bull Market. To conclude, this strategy should help you to maximize the returns in your Long-Term investment accounts. Always remember: "What we can learn from the past is that the future will always surprise us".
S
by Rashad
2
Coming reversal on SPYCurrently futures on SP1! Appear to be heading to open lower on 11/10/14. For this chart (SPY) I am using EMA 10 day and EMA 21 Day as a timer. As you can see in this chart, every cross has been reliable. I am using Stoch(52,9,3) as a way to have extra assurance on when to place a trade. The Stochastic cross seem to be happening before EMA crosses. If futures open lower on Monday, this will bring this will bring the Stochastic lines closer to crossing. Considering the lines are in the uppermost region, this would seem evident of a coming downtrend. Just look what happened late July. Keep an eye out for news that could hurt the market. If there is a lot of bad news in the coming weeks, this would help you to determine how bad the downtrend could be. Right now SPY seems like it hasn't peaked yet. Friday's candle was a spinning top where bull's gained strength. Keep a close watch on the S&P 500. It won't take much to bring it down from this peak.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Rashad
3