S&P500 Emerging Golden Cross on 4H.My most recent analysis on S&P500 was 15 days ago, when I talked about why the Bearish Ichimoku was in fact a bullish signal:
As it turned out, the signal was accurate and SPX made a bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up and rebounded. In fact it even broke above the 1D MA50, the strongest short-term bearish barrier (also the 4H MA200) and is closing in on the 4480 September 27 High.
The pattern seems like a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish formation, but perhaps even more important than that is the fact that we have a potential 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 crosses above the 4H MA200) forming. Ever since the November 2020 U.S. elections, every Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame has been heavily bullish.
I mentioned on my last update that this price action resembles the February-March fractal and currently I see no reason to change that. I expect a test of the 1.5 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions towards the end of November for a new Higher High on this long-term Channel Up.
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Standarandpoors
S&P The 0.618 Fibonacci is the keyThe current sequence on S&P has been seen before, in fact in late June. It was again a Channel Down on the 4H chart with the MACD on a somewhat Inverse Head and Shoulders formation.
The June fractal failed to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci and the Channel made one more Lower Low before the smooth and sustainable 2 month bull run took place.
Coincidentally S&P failed to break the 0.618 Fibonacci today and naturally got rejected. It is obvious that this holds the key to a potentially new sustainable rally, otherwise we might see a new Lower Low within the Channel.
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish towards the Higher High trend-line and roughly a +15% extension from the top. Bearish after that towards the 4H MA50.
Target: 3,530 and 3,465 respectively.
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