SOFI Swing Trade RecapSOFI as a fin tech company has been volatile. Besides the issues of student loan
forgiveness, the federal adjustments of the intrabank overnight rates and inflation
inparting the budgets of its customers, the landscape has landmines and its litterd
with signs of fiscal damage. Knowing it had upcoming earnings and perhaps some
greed competing against fear with traders. I took a trade and the closed it on
earnings. Here are the particulars.
!. the 30 minute bare chart is overlaid with a double set of Bollinger Bands. The settings are
not the default. If you want them, like the idea and then ask. A linear regression line with a
period of 28 is added. The volume is underneath. Finally a MACD indicator in a lower pane.
2. For the entry, on July 27, late in the session, price fell outside the lower bands and then
came back inside them after printing a red Doji bar and a little surge of selling volume
above the running mean. There it was a simple easy entry. Price crosses over the
regression line. MACD lines crossed under the histogram.
3. The swing trade progressed and price action progressed. On the mornings of the report
release traders were freaked out. Was the beat good enough ? Volatity was over the top.
after a bit of a drop, volume came into the trade in a big way and price followed the lead of
volume ( serious money flow). Price shot higher and got beyond those BB upper bands with
hugh volatility topping wicks. Once price got back inside the bands I exited.
4. This trade yielded more than 25% in 3 day pretty good for just a little effort. Of course stop
loss was moved every time a 2% rise occurred the stop loss was moved up 2.2% getting closer
and closer to price gradually.
5. Price dropped into a full pullback within a couple of hours. I would have liked to play
the downside but I was overextended on the number of trades I was managing.
6. As an afterthought, price is now doing what is called a lower bollinger band walk,
That is to say, it is increasingly at risk to reverse and start uptrending. Price is under the
middle BB and a little under the mean VWAP. It is begging to reverse. I am waiting for
an entry on that and the wait will not be long.
( By the way a certain someone, you are a smart trader and you will most certainly know
I uploaded this idea for you).
Studentloans
Is SOFI a buy or a sell?SOFi in the past month as shown on the 4H chart has run up more than 80% and now appears
to be in a standard 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price has descended from two standard
deviations above the mean VWAP to a single deviation after a Doji reversal candle on
June 14th. The reversal was also marked by the RSI and the signal lines crossing at a
reading of 93 and then descending. The price volume trend indicator went from green
for increasing to a flat line and then red for decreasing. Overall, I believe that SOFI
has nearly completed a retracement. I will watch for RSI to rise above 20 and the PVT
to transition from red to green and the candles themselves for a bullish candle pattern
or formation in order to ascertain an optimal long entry. I will do this on a 5 or 15 minute
time frame chart to make the best assessment of that entry. My first target is $ 10.20
or just under the pivot high while the second target is $13.00 just under a support area a
year ago on the weekly chart. Fundamentally, I believe that the reactivation of student loan
repayments will have dramatic effects on SOFI's earnings.
NAVI Swing TradeWe are in the middle of the wedge on NAVI . I personally entered the trade at $6.97 on the bottom of the wedge and am holding for a swing high to $8.00-8.25 range. Expecting this to be a 2-5 day hold, depending on how the SPY holds up. Would love to see other analysis if you have it.
Covid Crash - Wave Two - The Great Boomer RunWith an ~ 50% recovery in asset prices since the first selloff, rational baby boomers will liquidate their holdings now and through the summer.
Fall will likely bring a second wave of Covid; with it the masses will pull out of equity markets all at once. Dow will cascade down to 10K as all buyers step to the side.
Millennials, strapped with debt, won't be able to provide much liquidity. Student loans will be forgiven, that freed capital will begin a true recovery in 2021 when the younger generation is allowed to possess assets for the first time. A second baby boom will occur. The 20's will roar.