The Gold Odyssey - incoming, but wait...Ended the previous post on The Gold Odyssey (27 Dec 2022) with:
So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally.
Indeed the Down and then Uppish happened.
Now, with the monthly chart, we find gold again at the border of the Constipation Box and people are getting all excited about it. I had questions about my views so I started to relook, a tad earlier than I really should (remember May 2023?)
So, this chart was actually in response to someone who said that "gold always goes up" in conversation. I did not think it is "always" so I looked into the longer term and viola... The Constipation Boxes. Long term retracements can be 20-50% from peaks, and $300-400 multi-year ranges are observed.
Therefore, it is opined that Gold buying should be closer to the bottom of the ranges (eg. 1 Nov 2022) or at least when technical indicators are more aligned and on your bullish side.
IF you trace back, I bought Gold on 29 April 2019, two weeks after Trump launched the trade war of sorts. And released all Gold holdings on 9 August 2020. It has been a bit of a wait to get into a similarly bullish situation...
The previous month closed nicely bullish, but it appears to be a little too close to the upper range, even though the technical indicators look like a bullish turnabout. Furthermore, the past three months appear reminiscent of a Bearish Sandwich Stack candlestick formation .
So, let's just say that this is either
1. an imminent very bullish breakout; or
2. a bull trap to return back within the box for the next launch (possibly from about 18##)
Am more inclined with the latter personally, but that's just me and my overall observations.
Still maintain as per previous Gold Odyssey conclusion.
