Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 23 - TLT - (7th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing Ishares 20+ Treasure Bond ETF (TLT), starting from the 6-Month chart. (For some reasons I read "Ishares" as "Israeli" XD.
TLT
Pre NFP - SPX, IWM OIL GOLD TLT BTCAll in the video, we are in a critical area of support for the markets. Oil is especially leaning bearish for me as it's been winding up for months and looks ready to break down. I talk about IWM/SPY bull flag, and possible strength in both TLT and Gold. Non Farm Payrolls are tomorrow so anything is possible, including a rally to 4100 area again, if it happens, it would be a stone cold short in my opinion.
Good luck!
Trade of 2023? TLT! Big Boring BondsWhat is the big trade for 2023? I think it is going to be BONDS. This is my thesis on going long NASDAQ:TLT to start 2023. I walk through the reason that when yields go up, bond values go down (as did TLT) and why I think that TLT is likely to go back up over the course of this 2023 and beyond.
THE FAT PITCH !!!Just a quick market analysis of what I call a classic fat pitch where you have a wide divergence from fair value. All that is needed is a catalyst to cause a flight to safety. Its not a matter of predicting anything. It is for the purpose of managing risk. Lets see how it turns out.
QE Tapering Delay Can Support Gold #ElliottwaveFed's Kaplan noted that they are watching Delta variant, and says he may need to adjust view regarding tapering. This is very important for speculators who were recently betting on the USD as this can limit the USD strenght if it proves correct.
In such situation traders may turn back to gold where price recovered back to $1800 and even erased all of the losses after the crash from a two weeks back. Rally, in fact, is in five waves which is very bullish for metal. At the same time, we are looking at the TLT as confirmation regarding lower US yeilds/higher notes, while DXY can be trading at resistance of a three wave rally up from January.
Take care,
Grega
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
AMEX:GLD
AMEX:USO
AMEX:SPY
NASDAQ:TLT
I MISSED THE LAST LEG, SO WHAT NOW...Cash on Standby!Intraday uptrend is very strong but we are currently sitting in a neutral position to possibly have a pullback here. Also took a position in 20 YR bonds as it looks like we may have hit a bottom and more investors could be locking in to a more safe asset and minimizing their "Risk On" positions.