Tozero
Litecoin. Why I think Litecoin is going to ZERO.Let me make simple maths.
First, the facts.
1- Hashed public ledgers have existed since the 70s. Blockchain still is almost not used anywhere at all except to sell drugs and pedoporn on the internet. We know that technologies since ever have been taking 5-10 years to get adopted widely (television cars etc whatever), with a few exceptions. I do not think anything ever took 50 years. That's basically a generation, the people that know about it do not adopt it their entire lives lol and 50 years later it is a new generation that arrives and starts again from scratch.
Let us call X the probability blockchain gets adopted . I believe X is pretty low because blockchain is inneficient expensive dirty and that 50 years thing... But let's stick to X.
2- Even if blockchain survives, that does not mean cryptocurrencies will. No reason they do. We call Y the probability some crypto survive.
3- If crypto currencies survive, why would LTC? It is a copy paste of another product, that is supposed to be "faster" but Bitcoin can get redevelopped or whatever and there are many many other crypto that Litecoin that do its job better. It is neither the first one, the people favorite one, the fastest one, the one that is nit the best at 1 single thing but best overall, it has nothing placing it above dozens of better crypto's.
We call Z the probability Litecoin survives.
4- And we call OHCRAP the probability that cryptocurrencies do not get banned by most governments. Oh and the fun way this works is even if the probability to get banned is tiny it will eventually happen because every few years a new government arrives and the question is raised once again. If you roll a dice enough times...
Now for Litecoin NOT to go to zero we need to see:
* Someone finally finds a use for blockchain.
* Current form of cryptocurrencies survive.
* The thousands of different crypto's cannot become widely adopted... No matter what. Don't have to explain that one.
* We must avoid major governments bans every time a new government is elected. The more disruptive they get to the economy and taxes, the more likely they are to get banned. A ban WILL stop crypto. They don't let you bring your parent basement to jail.
So the probability for Litecoin to NOT go to zero is == X * Y * Z * OHCRAP.
We can put example values.
Let's try the delusional approach.
1/ Blockchain is so awesome wow. 80% chance we have flying (tesla) cars and all use blockchain in 25 years. No "new blockchain v2.0" that means actual crypto's are abandonned since the basis changed and we got something new and smarter.
2/ Crypto does not evolve in a major way, we keep it as it is with small improvements like lightning of course. They don't work very well but some very motivated people manage to bring the spaghetti code to something that works. 80% chance that everything stay the same and some of today's crypto stay. No new improved revolutionary crypto v2.0 (next FAD) that gets people all excited.
3/ There are several crypto that are faster cheaper than Litecoin, and bigger names too. and more uses. But the name of Litecoin and the fact it has been around for a few years really convince people. A super optimist would give a 75% probability of that happening and that seems too high...
4/ Hahaha. Ok every new elected government... In south korea crypto's have been a huge problem, China even. Let's say we are believers and give an 80% chance they won't get banned.
What does this give us in total???
Roll the drums. An optimistic approach would give Litecoin a :
0.8x0.8x0.75x0.8 = 0.384 = 38.4% chance Litecoin survives if we are optimistic about every link in the chain.
Pessimistic numbers in update:
