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DJI (2H): That mini crash - what does next week hold?Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI. My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂 The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market. So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No predictions, all you get is probability and some of my experience. (Note the disclaimer below) There is a massive gap between the 2H ATR line and the lowest price point. That in conjunction with the deep dive (much of it being panic), suggests that dip-buyers (unless they've wised up) are gonna plough in. What those folk are largely unaware of is that Wall Street traders can not only sell but short sell. What if price gets above the 2H ATR line next week or the following week? It doesn't mean a lot because there is the mother of 4H and 6H trends in the bigger picture. In fact there has already been a major shift in market sentiment on the 1D time frame. That's something to do with the FED, and interest rates etc. But in technical analysis causal factors are not so important. A grind down further from the current price point is also possible. My overall estimate is for rebellions. It could be very wild out there next week. That's good for scalping if you know what you're doing. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
GETTING READY: Looking back to 2020In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened. Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting. What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay below he ATR line. This index has been pumped up on implicit guarantees coming from the FED. We saw a similar scenario in the mortgage markets around 2008. Readiness is everything. When you're in a trend down, you won't really know for sure because you can't see the whole trend, like we see now looking back to 2020. This time around, I'm getting ready. The last major correction occurred in Feb 2020. So I am on high alert all now. I'm watching every 2hour switch. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DAX: Head and Shoulders pictureIt looks like a head and shoulders to me on the 4H time frame, but always debatable. Sentiment changed on this index many days ago, as seen in the 4H ATR line (on this time frame only). This short setup is for true trend followers (not trend continuation). That means it is much higher risk to much higher reward ratios. There are stop losses in trend following, but no predefined exit points. The markets decide the exit. As usual you take your own risk and your own losses. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30
by Captain_Walker
1
WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing. The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally? The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV. China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways. The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years. There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective. The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next. There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them. Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
2
BITCOIN COULD REPLACE BANKSIn this video I show a key level of support for BTC. It coincides with a 3-day ATR trendline for the north. I'm not saying Bitcoin can't go south. I deal with a far bigger issue, where in the heat of a financial crisis banks close. This has happened several times before (and Google is your friend on this point). There is a lot of chatter out there from very reputable experts about a serious banking crisis approaching. Stop - I don't listen to sensationalist nonsense. The 'big reset' is now a realistic probability for people in the know. I'm talking about people who understand the global financial system to the core. The reset will mean that not only stock markets meltdown but the money system globally is frozen. What are you gonna do when there is no money? Well, history has shown that people went back to bartering. At the moment Bitcoin functions as a store of value - even if unstable. The banks can't lock down Bitcoin. When the banks freeze up people will exchange BTC value for goods and services. That's just common sense. Not everybody will have Gold to exchange and physical gold is not available to everybody. But BTC is available to everybody right now. In the lead up to the banking crisis you will see BTC rocket north. How? Insiders always know and leak what's coming. Get prepared. I'm not saying that 'you' should put all your money into BTC. I'm saying a reasonable store of BTC is a good back up plan if worse comes to the worst. Disclaimers: This is not financial advice - even if so construed. It is opinion only. Your losses are your own. Sue yourself if you lose your money.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
DJI -Wall Street - collapsesI had flagged that the DJI and NASDAQ were in trouble some time ago. I told everybody to 'GET READY'. Some were hypnotised by POTUS's assertions that the American economy is doing "fantastically well". Yes he said so and I have the reference. The data on ISM that triggered this plunge/correction was not brand new information at all. It's only because the ISM release went viral that there was trouble. Anybody who was anybody who was looking at non-mainstream media would have known that manufacturing and lots of other things were troubled in the US economy. Some haven't even taken note of the $23 Billion in debt as yet. Others were punching the air about low unemployment figures - which were fake. Yes fake - because they were revised down weeks after the markets had pumped north (and nobody took notice of reality). The true unemployment rates are much lower, and when that goes viral there will be even more trouble. Just to be clear - contrary to Mr Trump's opinions - the DJI is not the 'economy'. It is sentiment about 'the economy'. Right if you don't here from me again, it's because I've been locked up in an American gulag, for disagreeing with POTUS. LOL!! Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade securities of any kind. Trading is a high risk activity, with 70-90% of all traders consistently losing money. Your losses are your own. Sue yourself if you lose your money.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late. It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds: 1. Trade wars 2. Currency wars. 3. Cyber-wars. 4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran. The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do. Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America. There is trouble ahead. Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart. Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
When will the Plunge Protection Team strike?That the Plunge Protection Team has been called in means there is big trouble! The PPT is a real lawful entity designed to manipulate the US Stock Markets. It is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). It was created by by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 following the 1987 crash. Its purpose is to lawfully prevent catastrophic market crashes. All the above factual knowledge is available from reputable sources findable via your fav search engine. This is both good and bad news. Those short in the market could protect their positions - and if they have enough guts take long positions for a limited period. It's not my business to say when to do this, as I have no advance knowledge of the future or when the PPT will strike! Note carefully that my language above is speculative, except that Dow and Wall Street are in big trouble. This is now common knowledge as the fall in the market has well exceeded the respected figure of 16%. If/when the PPT weighs in it'll have to be with billions and billions of US-Dollars, as loads of people are likely to set up sell orders for the next opening of the markets. That the PPT has been called in does not mean that they have a 100% chance of moving the US markets north. It all depends on whether they have enough to push back the deluge of selling they're likely to meet. Nobody I know, knows exactly how the PPT works. Perhaps they will get first orders, beating back all regular investors from selling or shorting . That would make sense. If they are successful, Forex pairs especially those with Yen and AUD could be affected by indirect effect. What it would mean for US-Dollar strength, is another problem. Note also that other countries have variants of the PPT, some operating covertly.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
4
The Big one: showing serious potential trouble ahead. I do not trade this index. In this screencast I show how there was a major struggle in the world economies between February 2018 and today 28th October 2018. I explore potentials for Bitcoin and Gold. A major corrective move south n the MSCI-ACWI has happened. This index is an aggregate of world indices. What we see on this chart is: 1. Price struggling to stay afloat between February 2018 and October 2018. 2. Price has suddenly collapsed without sign of a significant rebellion (so far). What's all this about? It's about joining some important dots (not all): 1. The world is in a deepening financial crisis. 2. The IMF warned in early October quoting from reputable sources, that risks to the global economy are rising unsupported by increasingly unsustainable policies. They warned that, "The extended period of ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies has contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities" 3. Global debt has reached unprecedented levels. 4. The American economy which tends to influence the world, is living on borrowed time. 5. The European Union is in a state of financial crisis: Italy more recently. Some have forgotten about Portugal, Greece and Spain (part of what is commonly known as the P.I.G.S - nothing derogatory implied] 6. The ECB will stop quantitative easing in December 2018 (it says). 7. Uncertainties about Brexit still loom and probabilities point to greater chance of a hard-Brexit. 8. Trad tensions are high with China and Russia. 9. Emerging market around the world are being hammered. The US stock market is the last in line for a potential beating. 10. Low interest rates over the last 10-15 years in many western countries have created a setup for boom bust cycles. In recent times global interest rates have been creeping up (on average), at among least major economies. Will reality win over hope and greed? We shall see. .
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Captain_Walker