Turkey
USDTRY: Offering interesting downsideI'll be monitoring this pair for a short entry soon, if we break the weekly support, and expand the daily range down we might get sufficient reason to get involved on the short side.
The setup is purely technical, I'm not considering Turkish fundamentals but if anyone wants to expand on them, maybe they can shed some light on this setup.
Feel free to leave your comments.
Good luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX
TRYGBP bearish Gartely supported by long term resistanceCD leg with a 1:1 ratio with the XA leg falls into the blue region shown on the graph (which is also a confluence of the 0.786 retracement and 1.272 extension, so will look for this as an entry point .
Stop loss is based on previous structure support as shown by the horizontal red line.
Not only is this a nice Gartely, but we also have the entrance point on the line of long term resistance , as shown by the black line (zoom out to see more). For this reason, we may see a much larger drop than the initial price targets.
RSI is nearing an overbought state.
Trade of the day. Sell EURTRY on MACD crossoverThoughts on Chart.
Although after a period of consolidation the price can go either direction, my bets are on a move down. Here are the reasons.
1. MACD crossover.
2. Downwards trending 100 MA.
3. All factors that have damaged the price have already been factored in. Unless war breaks out, I'd say a drop is likely.
4. Buying Turkish Lira pays very well. Great overnight swap.
5. Price has seems to hit resistance at 3.35
Perhaps consider shorting once price drops below support at 3.2785
USDTRY Detailed AnalysisGeo - Political News;
Due to Turkish Armed Forces trespassed the Syrian border without parliamentary approval, USDTRY has increased.
By the way, there are some rumours that presidency election is planning to be held in June 2016
Brainstorming;
In case, it gets covered by the strong red trend's bottom line as a short-term support, it may try the all-time top level (3,06) again.I believe that many people bought USDTRY in a range of 2,96-3,03 and 3,06 would be a nice sell point to get some profit. It makes all-time top is a strong wall to achieve.
It's highly possible that the red trend's middle line will be achieved even impatient small investors sell pressure through yellow trend.
In case yellow trend's bottom line falls, we need to stop our losses.
Supports;
2,97 Yellow trend's middle line
2,94 Yellow trend's bottom line (-> below stop loss)
Resistences;
3,00 Yellow trend top line
3,06 Fibonacci retracement - all time top - red trend's middle line
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.)
Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ."
There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary.
The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure.
Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off.
Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence.
The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend.
However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98.
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
EURTRY daily - analysis and long trade ideaTurkey is involved in a lot of (geo)political, military and terrorism concerns. Despite relative EUR weakening and low oil price, TRY is loosing its strength due to the risks inherent to the country.
On technical daily side, PA is above the cloud. We may see a retracement soon towards the twist and then a rise towards the highest levels of 2015. Impatient traders could initiate a long position now with a TP at 3.367 which is the level defined by the flat Kijun range on Sept/Oct 2015.
USD/TRY D1 Perspective I had a request from a friend to analyze USD/TRY:
On daily perspective I saw a nice classical Elliot Wave with double zigzag till point E correction waves.
Before starting the analyze I want you to eliminate the harmonic pattern that I draw there; First we start with trends and the potential of opening trade. PA (Price Action) creates trend and trends give us opportunity to open a position trade by its steep. On S2 line we had 2 potential of Buy and why we do not Sell on R1.2 is because of its upward steep and we will never Sell on upward trend and never do amateurish scalping and we do not close our deal until either S2 breaks or we see a PA TP Signal which we had it on the top and Also a good Sell Signal at the same time.
Remember as a good trader how we open Sell Position is not when ever we see double top just sell on it. Even though we have seen a bearish PA on the top we still should wait ti S 1.1 trend to break and then we can open Sell position with SL of above R 1 + Spread. Since price follows our expectation we will sell any time if price touches the R1.1 with SL of above it. (Remember you must first observe that does the price are going to touch and pull back or it will breaks the trend. You never Sell if your trend is broke out. You follow the price till you reach the Future Expected Price A (FEPA) and if price does not change direction; you will follow the same strategy till you reach FEPB. (If R 1.1 dose not break).
Since we have S 2 Trend line seems to be stronger than R1.1 you also can expect an uptrend around that area. If we see S 2 Breaks R 1.1 we get ready to see a harmonic pattern in future.
Our expected Patterns and Elliot are not our signal, it's just a map and idea that we can look at them some time. We trade based on your best friend (trend) and PA.
Any time if the harmonic pattern is completed you can expect for a bullish movement.
Remember you will close all the sell position if R 1.1 breaks and will not open any position till you reach on 1 safe trend. Hold is also an option.
FEP are found by Orbits strategy that I have explained in many of my previous perspective. If you are new to it please read my previous analysis and if still you have problem with it feel free and email me at farsi.masoud@gmail.com
USDTRY Mid TermEnglish : Right now USDTRY stuck at 0.382 fibonacci (july 2014 low) and also as 61.8 (oct 2014 low).
We can take bullish position using risk/reward ratio 8 with SL at new low at 2.2133 and profit target at 2.2969 at fibonacci 1.272.
If support level break down and success perform new low, bearish will continue using risk/reward ratio 4.33 with SL at 2.2231 and TP at 61.8 (july 2014 low) at 2.2170
For longer term period please ta a look at :
Indonesian : Saat ini USDTRY tertahan pada 0.382 fibonacci (july 2014 low) dan juga 61.8 (oct 2014 low).
Posisi bullish bisa diambil dengan risk/reward ratio 1 banding 8 dengan SL pada new low dilevel 2.2133 dan target profit pada 2.2969 pada fibonacci 1.272
Apabila terjadi break down support dengan sempurna dan terbentuk new low, maka bearish akan berlanjut dengan risk/reward ratio 1 banding 4.33 dengan SL 2.2231 dan TP pada fibonacci 61.8 (july 2014 low) di level 2.2170
Untuk long term period silahkan lihat analisa :
Happy trading,.
www.dkcentre.com
USDTRY long termHISTORY WILL REPEATS IT SELF (request analysis from esene)
English : It is very interesting to see a repetition of history at USDTRY , not only for the bullish trendline, but also happening on break up once every two years in april, and highest level reach every end of January or february
If this trendline break up at april 2015, bullish target at any price on january 2016.
Mid term period please take a look at :
Indonesian : Sangat menarik melihat pengulangan sejarah pada USDTRY, bukan hanya terhadap trendlinenya, tapi juga terjadap pengulangan break up dua tahun sekali setiap bulan april, dengan target 9 bulan berikutnya pada akhir januari atau awal februari.
Apakah Bulan April 2015 akan terjadi break up menuju 2.6000?
Jika hal tersebut terjadi, maka target prfit berada di harga manapun pada januari 2016 (time target).
Untuk analisa jangka menengah, silahkan buka :
