It has been commonly accepted that when yields and rates rise then higher risk assets should fall in value as money is tempted by yield returns This relationship seems to be getting tested as Bitcoin and US10Y moves up together. It does give impression that bitcoin is not as risky as potentially imagined and can be seen as a flight to safety or "quality" to...
dear fellows, we believe USOIL to fall in the near term. this would allow US10Y to fall, as well. as a consequence, EUR, GBP, JPY would rise against the USD. finally, it would lead these respective stock market indexes up. best regards.
Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further. Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes. The particular...
Obviously as money flows into cash it flows out of assets If rates on US bonds rise then the incentive to hold cash increases which dries up liquidity almost everywhere else. We are seeing very bullish signs (current data/can fail and reverse) for both US Dollar and US Yields. Which of course correlates to bearish signs for assets prices (bitcoin/stocks/real...
Whats next for the markets? A complete collapse? A blowoff top? Sideways Chop? Lets discuss some pivotal price action
Have to be extremely careful of alt bags if BTC and Eth are as bearish as they are BTC is the sun to the space and when it falls hard the rest will follow harder. This means that we can lose 20% - 50% - 80% value in alts fast esp the low cap high risk alts. These alerts can quickly change and new data needs to be reacted upon so have to stay up to...
We have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88....
US GDP Q1 GDP figures were released yesterday and showed a significantly slower rate of growth that expected, printing an overall figure of 1.1% Q1 growth. The problem facing investors is that economic data suggests that inflation could remain sticky and the central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next...
It's pretty much all about Fibonacci today - the market has recent peaked at around 4.24 and is in the process of eroding a key convergence of support at 3.25/3.32 (lows since January, the 55-week ma and the 2018 high). These are looking vulnerable and failure will imply a deeper corrective move lower towards 3.00 and potentially 2.80ish - the 38.2% retracement of...
Traders, Technicals are still on point. The only question is, "Can we tag our 200 day moving average on the BTC chart without breaking below it"? $20,000 BTC is key. Any break below means trouble. But using it as support without breaking it is technically bullish. Let's take a look at Bitcoin technicals as well as all the rest of the indicators we have been...
We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001. Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading...
hi there, dear fellow. we've recently stumbled upon this chart, in the quest for a leading gauge for the dxy. this chart depicts a paradox. in white, US10Y-USIRYY; in orange, US10Y-US02Y. if you remember our previous idea, namely on the DXY and the yield curve spread (US10Y-US02Y), we've pointed out back then that a steepening of the yield curve would be bearish...
we've plotted US10Y-US02Y against DXY. we've noticed a near perfect fitting between them. as yield curve continues to invert, it drives higher DXY and that is bearish for risk assets, and vice versa. best regards.
The Nasdaq is stuck in a tight range and seems to be coiling up for an explosion! Is the US10Y and the DXY giving us a clue as to which direction the break will be? I think the CPI result tomorrow will show us the answer. Happy trading Linton
The Yen and 10-year are edging to new swing highs. What is powering it? Where should we target to the upside?
In this update we review the recent price action in the US10Y Yeild and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
In this video we discuss the current macro economic problems facing the Bond market and anticipate that regardless of what happens we will see dislocations (volatility) in a number of different markets. The problems with Japan stems from their monetary policy to implement Yield Curve Control (YCC) where they are committed to keeping their interest rates between...
In this video I am going to show you why I think that we will have a major decreas e in bonds price this year. This is due to the fact that we are currently trading in a wedge shape , or a so-called Elliot Wave Diagonal which is characterized by a 5-Waves-Pattern , of which every inner wave is shorter than the first impulsive wave. Fundamentally spoken, I do...