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US10Y-DE10Y

ridethepig | Chinese Yields Struggling📌 A Pullback for Chinese Yields This illustrates the notion of development in a change in trend for China's sovereign bond market . Sellers avoided a breakout and are aiming to test 3.00%. On the fundamental side , China is outperforming as expectations are skewed towards favouring their management of the virus and recognisable weakness of the West! Strong LT push factors remain in play, putting the renminbi into SDR was a g ame-changer , as with the Saudi's allowing issuing Oil in CNY contracts; 2020 was the year of the Yuan while 2021 looks more like a game of two halves. H1 2021 we have another deflation storm cooking while H2 2021 rate markets are showing early hints of inflation and rate hikes. On the technical side, sellers now have the attacking position in the highs. This is a definite advantage . Here the weakness comes from a breach of our diagonal resistance (light blue). With this move, sellers see themselves as obliged to continue by playing an initial test of 3.00% which will unlock a sweep of July 2020 lows at 2.83%. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CN10YShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Pausing via Italian Politics 📌 ridethepig | Rate Differentials Pausing via Italian Politics An important chart update here as we are talking "differentials" in the abstract concept of waves and TA. We must first take notes of the previous leg which was the 1st wave and far from easy to spot, in the early game of rate differential turns, it takes a lot of energy to exploit one side the whole business involves activity. Think of the complicated setup, above the orderblock as a breakout, and remember we are playing a whitespace game! On the other hand, operations on the FX board are quite simple and natural to follow. There have been some signs of a temp high cooking in EURUSD and with Italian politics entering back under the spotlight it will likely be used as a blockader. Remember ECB may, when the occasion demands it, possibly send forward false flags to clear the ground of infiltration above 1.25. A pullback in rate differentials towards 1.25 will be enough to clear the board and by the apparently primitive sequence an ABC pullback should materialise. The pullback should cap the highs in EURUSD for now until the summer to gather energy before we can launch decisively higher. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Rate Differentials 📍 A quick update here on the elements of EUR and USD Ending the 'C' part in the swing down has been a hard struggle and with such a problem a surprising retreat is expected. Buyers are threatening to bottle up their opponent. A pullback in EURUSD towards 1.15/1.14 will make things a lot easier: Inflation is demanding a return, after sufficient preparation, watch out on the battlefield (see my explanation in the recession strategy). The other theoretically plan of attack is a flank attack in USD which must be nipped in the bud via FED but they will lag behind now. Real money understands the point behind this move. Firstly, the test of 1.70 is starting to be considered from the point of view that the current block is settled to the topside. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
6
10-year yield curve US-German comparison...10-year yield curve US-German comparison. The comparison aims at further understanding the EURUSD track. The DE10Y yield curve shows that the decreasing correction structure (red line) is shorter. But it can also be seen that the size of the fractals (green wave) before them is getting smaller. It can have two consequences. The first is that a drop in yields is expected in the short term. Then there will be a very flat rise in yield. Conversely, the US10Y yield curve surpassed 3% and showed a strong upward trend. Currently it has a target level of 3.75%. This difference may favor the dollar. The conclusion is that the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the short to medium term.
TVC:US10Y
by meszaros