US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support.
We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster.
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Us10ysignals
US10Y hit the 0.618 Fib. Pull-back to 1W MA50?The US10Y has been trading within a Channel Up until it marginally broke its Higher Highs trend-line yesterday. This happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and today we we seeing a rejection.
Technically the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for months, with the most recent bounce provided on the September 15th low. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 1W MA50 again.
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US10Y Strong rejection on the 1D MA50. Long-term bearish sign?A perfect Channel Down has been formed for the US10Y on the 1D time-frame. The 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 have already been broken. The 1D MA150 (yellow trend-line) is exactly within the Higher Lows Zone from the very bottom of August 2020. Will the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) get tested right on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level?
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BONDS 10year yield formed the 1st 4H Death Cross since SeptemberThe US10Y has just formed a Death Cross (the MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing below the MA200 (orange trend-line)) on the 4H time-frame since September 24, 2020!. That is technically a bearish formation. It gets even more bearish if we count the fact that the price got rejected on the 4H MA50 after the bounce. The last time we had such a rejection on a 10-20 day selling sequence was on June 16, 2020.
This pattern has the capacity to stop the uptrend of the recent months and initiate bearish momentum on the medium-term. The green zones indicate potential Supports. Personally, I expect the price to drop all the way to the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) which is the pivot between being bearish or bullish on the long-term.
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