Bombardier_(TSX:BBD.B)_July_17_2018For those of you considering shorting Bombardier, I think there is still some upside left or atleast the time is not yet ripe to short the stock just yet. Granted, that based on historical performance (atleast the past 5 years) the stock has reached close to all time highs (since about 2012). Furthermore, the $5.00 mark seems to act as a key resistance level which the stock is having trouble breaching through.
However, as traders we should focus more on logic and less on intuition for better overall portfolio performance. An analysis of the Moving Averages(MA) indicate the the stock is in a uptrend. The price is above the MA, the short MA has crossed the long MA and both MA have an upward trend. In addition, the Accumulation-Distribution (AD) also has an upward trend.
With news that the partnership with Airbus has been formalised, their new line of business jets about to enter service and the train division doing well it would be unwise to short the stock until and unless the trends indicate otherwise. The greatest risk to the company is its large debt that will act as a huge burden in a rising interest rate environment.
With relations souring between USA, Canada and Europe, BBD.B is going to receive additional support from the Canadian government. Also Canadian and European Airlines are going to be prodded by the government to buy more CSeries Aircraft rather than the competing Boeing 737's. With Airbus coming into the fold and marketing the CSeries as one of their aircraft (as it has been rumoured), Bombardier seems to be well positioned to sell more planes. How much of that profit is going to go to BBD.B is a question for another day.
My prediction is that the stock is going through a period of consolidation. If you hold the stock then do not sell just yet but depending upon your risk profile you may want to determine a good exit point in case the stock price indeed goes south. If you are yet to buy the stock, this consolidation might be a good time to buy but you want to set your stop loss at a appropriate level so that you do not lose a huge portion of your capital.
