Daily Market Report - USD/JPY - 10th Feb 2016USD/JPY
Japanese Yen sustain advance against most counterparts on safe-haven demand after global equity drop on Global Economy growth concern
Market managed to break below 115.50 zone which add more pressure to sustain advance toward first target 113.60
As short-run sustain trades below 116.00-50 resistance zone expect farther drop toward 113.60
Mid-Run: market showing strong bearish signals after breaking below uptrend channel which may lead the mid-run toward farther drop toward 106.60
www.tradingsignalreviews.com
Usdjpy1hr
Forex Market Analysis - 7th Feb 2016
The primary trend of USD/JPY is bearish on charts and price is trading below the trend line in its 4 hourly chart. In 4 hourly chart the price is below 200 day SMA and 50 day SMA indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important level of 116.80. If it breaks its trend-line (black line) on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.
If the pair breaks the level of 116.81, then we can expect it to test the levels of 118.
INDICATORS:-
MACD is sustaining in its negative territory although has crossed on the daily indicating a change in trend in the pair.
RSI is leaving its selling zone indicating the upcoming bullish trend in the pair.
STRATEGY:
USD/JPY is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.
Please like and comment your ideas and good luck! :)
www.tradingsignalreviews.com
USDJPY scenarios is this!We are long on a short term for a re-test of 119.95. (Today/tomorrow) if the price manage to take out the high 120.47 then short is not an option.
After this we will sell the pair and we expect the price to decline again and give us a nice
break of the 118.30. structure(sell-point) a break below this point, we will bring our stop firmly on the 118.20.
After this we can look forward to 116.80 area. A break of 116.80 will further drag the pair towards a significant point of 115.50.
This is the likely scenario according to the price action in the pair.
Entry=118.50
stop = 118.25
Target=119.95
Long at USDJPY hope u enjoy this signal :)It is my frist time at a USD/JPY pair hope i get some $ :)
At begining of February it looks like we got breakout but it is return to the mean.
1. Buy some pieces of position.
2. Set 2 or 3 stages of TP.
3. Set one stage of SL.
4. As u wish put some BuyLimit or BuyStop positions.
5. After Reach first stage TP close first piece of position, and change SL.
I recomend to Buy at current pos +-0.1 . Also 1st TP at 18.300 second at 19.300
GL & HF :)
Long USDJPY – false breakout trade?As Market likes to trick people and after the break of 117.25-117.40 the only logical direction would be down, there might be the last trick to get the final weak shorts out before the final down move in the second half of the weak
Similar to my EURJPY idea, I try a false breakout trade
_______________________________
I did place a a limit buy order at 117.05, Risk-Reward = 5.0
SL@ 116.8 (-25), TP@ 118.30 (+125)
When SL is triggered, the brave ones, might short with TP at 116.10, but I believe there is one more move up to let the break-out traders suffer
_______________________________________________
Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short USDJPY – is it too obvious?- USDJPY seems to be caught in a pretty clear range on 4h and 1h charts
- resistance zone is between 118.60 and 118.90
- support zone is between 117.25 and 117.40
The daily chart has lower highs and price is mostly below 20EMA (on 1d chart), so I would prefer to short in that range, close but not reverse the position near support and in case price falls below 117.25 wait for a pullback to reshort again
_______________________________
I place a limit short order at 118.55, Risk-Reward = 2.87
SL@ 118.95 (-40), TP@ 117.40 (+150)
__________________________________________________
Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short USDJPY – taking contrarian view with great R-RI took a short at 118.70, Risk-Reward = 6.5
SL@ 119.10 (-40), TP@ 116.10 (+260)
____________________________________
what if:
a. BOJ does not pressure on Yen
b. ECB gives more uncertainty the next day and stocks tank,
then Yen could sour and USD should fall before Davos
- from technical point of view a pretty easy trade as there is a false breakout over 118.70 and the next real support is at 116.05
- the volatility during the BOJ Press Conference could be a problem, as my SL is very tight
________________________________________________________________________________________
Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
should be noted that the wave of decline has increasedYesterday, broke the Support and lows as expected.
because it fell below the low of 108.00, Note a wave of decline is larger.
From the above, I put in my head larger rebound.
in that case, Selling point is Resistance-B.
If exceed there, there is room to Resistance-C.
If rebound there, I waits for a short-term collapse.
Also, I draw the Support-D in the short term.
but, I'm not aiming for long here.
Reaching to Support. Whether break the decline of yesterday...Environmental recognition of current.
Yesterday, was suppressed in "Resistance-A", fell to "Support-B".
At this decline, movement of interest is a "Movement-I".
In response to this movement, "Resistance-C" has occurred.
In the short term, there is "Resistance-D".
If exceeding here, I think that the probability of being suppressed by "109.14 / 15 ~ Resistance-C" is high.
but..
"Short" to limit on the Short-term, because rebounded from "Support-B".
In the case of more than "Resistance-C", I have also set up deployment of testing higher.
look short on short-term,but ....look short on short-term,but I will change to "Long" by going higher.
First, there is the fact that broke the push-lows.
Are rising strongly momentum now, but can not be ignored the above facts.
Currently, I judge that have been struck by Resistance Zone.
Points buying on dips for this rising are two blue zones.
if "A-Zone" was cracked , decline would begin.
109.05 / 25 zone that support of the first place is also attention .
New York Session Watch USDJPYNew York Session Watch - #USDJPY
USD/JPY has been squeezing all the way since yesterday and we have a triangle chart pattern showing up on this pair. The long term trend is still up as price is still way above the 200 period moving average. Tenken-sen and Kijun-sen are flat as are the shorter term moving averages due to this price squeeze. When the price breaks either way of this triangle, we could potentially have great buying or selling opportunities. Since the trend is still up, the odds that the price breaks above the triangle is higher but we still need to see the break to confirm.
USDJPY EXPECTATION 250+ PIPSTHIS IS A FOLLOW UP ON MY PREVIOUS POST. THIS IS MY PROJECTION FOR THIS PAIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN MY FIRST POST I FAILED TO MENTION THE STRONG SUPPORT THAT EXIST AT 108.64 WHICH CAN CAUSE A SHORT REVERSAL BACK UP TO OPENING PRICE. KNOWING THIS CAN BE BENEFICIAL IN MANY WAYS. 1. IF YOU ARE ALREADY IN AN OPEN POSITION AND FEAR YOUR PROJECTION OF PRICE WAS WRONG, IT CAN HELP KEEP YOUR FINGERS OFF THE CLOSE POSITION BUTTON. 2. IF YOU ARE WILLING TO RISK IT, YOU CAN PLACE YOUR LIMIT AT THIS PRICE 108.64 AND A BUY IMMEDIATELY BELOW, AND PLACE LIMIT AND SELL AT 108.84 WITH YOUR LAST TARGET AT THE END OF THE CHANNEL. 3. IT GIVES YOU ANOTHER REASON TO EXPECT PRICE TO EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS SUPPORT AFTER. THE PERSISTENCE OF PRICE TRYING TO BREAK THROUGH THIS SUPPORT AND FAILED GIVE A GREATER PROBABILITY AFTER EACH FAILED ATTEMPT THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THROUGH. THE REASON I PROJECT PRICE WILL BREAK THROUGH IS A COLLABORATION OF SIGNALS. A. ELLIOTT WAVE, PRICE HAS TO FORM THE THIRD AND FINAL WAVE (OR WAVE NO5) B. AFTER THE FINAL WAVE IS FORMED PRICE USUALLY BREAK THROUGH CHANNEL (UPPER CHANNEL BOUNDARY IN THIS CASE). C. CONFLUENCE. WHICH ALSO PROJECT A RETRASAL BEFORE BREAKING THROUGH PRICE, AND D. THE HEAD AND SHOULDER THAT HAS DEVELOPED WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORMING THE LAST SHOULDER BUT THE CHANNEL SLOPE MUST BE TAKEN INTO PERSPECTIVE.
BEING AWARE OF ALL THESE THINGS PUTS YOU AT THE HEART OF PRICE ACTION. PICTURE THIS PAIR AS A VENN DIAGRAM, AND ALL THE PERSONS THAT ARE TRADING AND WATCHING SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE (A), ALL THE PERSONS FOR ELLIOTT WAVE ARE (B), THOSE FOR CONFLUENCE ARE (C), AND THOSE FOR THE BULLISH FLAG ARE (D) CANDLESTICKS ON HIGHER TIME FRAME (E), AND FUNDAMENTALS (F). (I DIDN'T MENTION INDICATORS WHICH ARE ALSO IMPORTANT BUT IT'S AN EXAMPLE) NOW THE FACT THAT YOU ARE CONSIDERING ALL THESE FACTORS WITHIN YOUR TRADE PLAN IT PUTS YOU AS UNION WITHIN THIS VENN DIAGRAM. BEING IN THIS POSITION IS WHAT GIVES A PERSON A HIGH PROBABILITY STATUS WITHIN A TRADE.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, YOU CAN BE IN THIS POSITION AND STILL GET IT WRONG, BUT IF YOU DO IT 10 TIMES, 8/10 OF THE TIME YOU WOULD BE RIGHT.
USDJPY LONG OPPORTUNITYTHIS PAIR IS SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE BUT I'M CHOOSING TO IGNORE IT FOR NOW AND FOCUS ON THE STRUCTURE. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS PUT ME IN EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER MOVE UPWARD. MY PRIMARY FOCUS IS THE BROWN CHANNEL OF WHICH I'M AWAITING A CONFIRMATION OF A MOVE TO TOUCH MY LOWER CHANNEL AND POSSIBLE A CANDLE THAT WICK CLIMAX AT MY LOWER BROWN CHANNEL AND CLOSE ABOVE MY BLUE CHANNEL.WITH THIS SET-UP I'M LOOKING FOR TARGETS: 1ST 109.33, 2ND 109.54 (WHICH I'M MORE IN FAVOR OF).
iF PRICE CLOSE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MY LOWER BROWN AND BLUE CHANNEL, THEN IT PUTS ME IN PLAY FOR A SMALL CYPHER THAT IS SETTING UP. 108.72 ENTRY WITH TARGET AT 109.33.
IF PRICE PROCEEDS FURTHER LOWER THEN THIS SETUP IS NO LONGER VALID.
USDJPY POSSIBLE SHORT TERM LONG ENTRYIf you did not catch the trade from the completion of the pattern, the market is painting a beautiful head and shoulder that can provide a nice entry risk/reward. As usual, you would need to wait a bit for candle to confirm a further mover upwards. stop loss can be placed below at the D leg of the pattern but, i would rather place my stop just above the D leg at the close and open to maximize gains upward. whether your stop loss is just above the D or at the d point does not matter. If you are practicing proper money management, the amount loss will be the same, the difference will be reflected in the amount gain.
For example if you have a 10,000$ account and your rule per trade is 5%. (using this trade as an example) it means you are going to lose $500 on this trade (not that i'd use 5% on this trade 1% tops). Your stop loss below point D is about 13 pips while stop loss Above D is 7 pips. 1. Stop loss 13 pips) means that you'd divide 500/13= 38.46$per pip x 20 (pips gain if target is met) which give you $769.23 in profit. Now with the other 7 pip stop loss 500/7 = 71.43 x 20 = $1428.57 which is almost twice as much.
there is a downside to this strategy. Having a larger stop loss gives more room for play, while a tighter stop loss can easily be triggered by high volatility. but for this trade, i wouldn't worry so much since a move past the close with volatility will most likely stop out both stops. but as always as a human being, i could be wrong. let see how it plays out.