GBPUSD Short opportunity with batman and 26182618 completing any moment, and above we have batman soaring. I put my entry order in between these two aiming to follow these down to 1.25000.
Lets see if we get picked up this time.
Usdlong
EURUSD (1h) Structure based trade - Short opportunityA broken bullish trendline, now acting as resistance
Several previous support levels broken, now acting as resistance
What could go wrong?
Well, we shall see!
GBPUSD 15m - Bearish bat - Short opportunityBearish bat with trend line together with structure as resistance.
Lets see if we can squeeze out some profit
Another try at GOLD - XAUUSD, Shorting bearish CypherBearish Cypher completing below previous trend/pennant line. Although it has already been violated, it could potentially hold some resistance. Lets see if it, with the help of Mr Cypher, can beat the bulls.
XAUUSD 4H - Get ready to short with 2618As USD trembles, XAU makes its path upwards. I will enter above 0.618 fibo (see chart). Entering late will give me a better risk to reward ratio, sure, it does also decrease my chance of getting involved - but I will live with that.
Trend + structure were broken on the downside, which adds to the case with this 2618 trade.
Order is set, lets hope we get filled!
EURUSD (1h) 2618 short opportunityWe have a double top followed by break of structure to the downside, followed by a retrace to 0.618 fib - which gives us an opportunity to get short with 2618 strategy.
I trade this setup without waiting for confirmation by, for example, engulfing. However, I put my entry higher than 0.618 to get better risk to reward.
Target just above a previous structure, and potential profit taking zone, see circle.
EUR/USD very short term buy then sellPair is reaching some very important levels for the short and medium term. I am waiting for the price to get stuck somewhere around 1.0850-1.0930 and i will be looking from there.
Very short term it makes sense to buy at current levels.
BUY USD: Month-end rebalancing flowsToday's month-end rebalancing flows were understandably USD negative, given the recent USD positioning in the market.
They have given us excellent levels to add to USD longs.
The USD uptrend should resume, given the strong fundamentals in play.
Donald Trump's jawboning simply cannot weaken the USD materially, since he cannot reduce the structural dollar shortage, the $10 trillion off-shore debt or the normal mean reversion of term premia on longer dated treasuries.
I maintain that these are excellent levels to buy USD against all major currencies except gold, given the current monetary policy divergence and structural divergence.
DXY TO RESUME UPTREND: Divergence with 10Y YieldBond yields are moving upwards - NOT because of rate hike or inflation expectations - but because of changes in term premia of longer dated bonds.
Investors are demanding a higher premium to hold longer dated Treasuries.
This naturally pushes bond yields up.
DXY is normally extremely correlated with Treasury yields.
Right now, DXY is trading at a discount compared to the 10Y yield.
This needs to be corrected - suggesting that DXY will resume its uptrend.
Furthermore, US Treasuries are now 'high yielding' bonds.
This should result in capital inflows to the US, away from low yielding currencies such as EUR and JPY.
Equity markets suggest that the current economic climate favours risk, i.e. a 'risk-on' environment.
This, historically, supports high yielding currencies, in particular USD versus EUR and JPY.
All things considered, there are many fundamental arguments supporting USD against most G10 currencies.
EURUSD 2618 in progress, Gartley in the workingsSee description on the chart.
As for the placement of stops and targets;
I see these two as completely different trades with each rule set.
Hopefully, we get filled with the gartley before taking both targets.
Alternatively, we shoot upwards, continuing our bullish journey. After all, we're in a bullish channel. :)
NZDCAD 15M short term LONG setupInside a forming bullish pennant we find a opportunity to get long with retest of trendline/lower pennant line which should act as resistance, together with the completion of a Cypher-pattern.
I entered 0.95435 with target at 0.95633
Stop loss below previous support.
US DOLLAR (DXY) MEDIUM TERM LONG: Fundamental and TechnicalFundamentally: rising interest rates, higher inflation expectations and a rise in US yields relative to other major G10 currencies should continue to drive the dollar higher.
Further into 2017, $10 trillion of off-shore dollar denominated debt is massively bullish for the greenback.
Technically: The dollar index has broken 100.50 - a major multi-year resistance level.
It has now corrected back to that level, and is supported by the 100.50 - 100.00 region.
After this correction, the dollar index should continue higher to the 105 handle.
EURUSD Daily Short setupWhy?
Broken bullish trendline, should as act resistance.
61.8 fibo retrace
Structure, previous support, should act as resistance
Bearish trendline, should act as resistance
What more would I want? I'd prefer RSI to show even more overbought, but still, enough to hold my case.
Taking profit above previous structure support.
NFP tomorrow, but since this trade is on the daily I'll leave it to its fate.
Oh, noticed the bat? I'll leave it there for motivation. :)
XAUUSD - 2618 Short SetupDouble top followed by break to the downside. Selling the retrace with falling trendline as resistance together with previous structure-zone. Looking to take profit above 61.8 retrace of the leg.
Stop loss above highest of the tops.
Since is NFP tomorrow I will definitely be on the lookout.
DXY / DOLLAR LONG: Divergence and TrendlineThe Dollar Index, DXY, dipped to 94.3 today.
However, on the 4H chart, there is strong divergence at this point.
Furthermore, since late April, DXY has trended upwards on the 4H chart.
If the trendline indicated holds, and DXY stays above 94.00, I expect the dollar to recover.
Fundamentally, I feel that a neutral Fed has already been priced in to the market, and weakness in other major currencies relative to the dollar (AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP) should mean that we will see some dollar strength over the next 1-2 months.
However, the September Fed meeting should be closely eyed, and if DXY breaks 94.00 there is considerable risk to the downside.
GBP/USD FALL AMID USD STRENGTHEN A very simple of a wave analysis. We saw previously was the completion of the impulsive wave (v). Assuming downward correction of wave (a) have formed, and going down towards the 61.8 % fib line for retracement, then will again resume its way down to complete wave C.
My idea was to short GBP, exactly when the confirmation bearish candle formed, from the level of 1.3225 with target in mind set at the bottom (1.2865).
Current Scenario : price closed at 1.3129 (closest to 38.2 fib)
Alternative Scenario : Short more at current price
Breakout and consolidate above level 1.3276 would allow pair to grow to 1.3350
DXY - US DOLLAR - Long to 1.618 extensionUS Dollar 15m Long
DXY Long
We have just completed an ABC -and retest of the trendline for more upside next week.
The 0-2 might be an ABC correction, either way, the trajectory still looks long for a few days next week.
USDCAD 4hr Potential Cypher Just looking at the fib extentions and there is a possible reversal zone marked out could see a c to d leg if we get a bullish reversal and then a continuation downwards as the pair is still in a bearish trend overall
Good buy opportunity for short term! USD/CHF!Good luck!
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EUR/USD SHORT Fundamentals: - The QE program in the Euro zone is still well under way and the latest Non Farm Payroll figures squash Janet Yellens speech last week which I expect to bring the Euro back down to major support levels. The recent rally in the Euro has mainly been caused by the weaker USD which now seems to be back on the strong side. I will be looking to sell again this week taking technical’s into account.
Technical's:- On the bigger time frames the technical signals still need to be confirmed for the downside. However on the 1 hour chart you can see an opportunity to use the head and shoulders formation to take a short term sell position. The entry, stop loss and take profit level are clearly marked on the chart.. Take the professional traders course for free bankonadam.com
preparing for a USD breakShould Dollar bust out of this range area I don't see much stopping it. I don't believe last week's sell pressure will continue
