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US Market Technicals Ahead (25 October – 29 October 2021)Investors will be preparing for the busiest week of earnings season, with focus turning to reports from several tech giants including Apple ($AAPL), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT) and Facebook ($FB). There are also some key economic reports in the coming week, including a first look at U.S. third quarter GDP (Advance GDP) on Thursday. Optimism is growing that after some large concessions, Democrats will get Senators Manchin and Sinema on board with President Biden’s economic package. The US economic outlook next year is still looking bright as pent up demand and more stimulus will spur growth. The European Central Bank will be holding its latest meeting against a background of persistent inflation pressures. Evergrande has bought another week to deal with the looming debt crisis casting a shadow over the world’s second largest economy and the Bitcoin rollercoaster rolls on. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. $SPX (S&P 500) The benchmark index $SPX continued its recovery with a gain of +1.64% (+73.53 points), closing the week at 4,544 level, a new all time high closing. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,450 50DMA level. Big tech earnings Four out of the five FAANG stocks are set to report earnings during the week – Facebook ($FB) is set to report on Monday, followed by Google parent Alphabet ($GOOGL) on Tuesday, while Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are reporting on Thursday. FAANG’s stellar growth and heavy weighting in the S&P 500 has given them an outsized impact on the broader equities market, propelling markets higher for over than a decade. Strong earnings results could help tech stocks broaden the lead they have established over value stocks in a market tug of war, with stock investors caught between a strong economic recovery and surging commodity prices on one side, and rising Treasury yields and inflation on the other. U.S. GDP Data on Thursday is expected to show the extent of the headwinds that hit the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Economists are forecasting that GDP growth slowed to 2.8% from 6.7% in the previous three months. The impact of the delta variant, along with rising prices, supply chain strains and labor shortages contributed to the soft patch in growth, but those effects should dissipate in the fourth quarter. Other economic data to watch during the week includes reports on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and personal income and expenditures on Friday. Friday’s data includes the core PCE price index, rumored to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. Economic data will be closely watched as it is coming just before the Federal Reserve’s November meeting the following week, where the central bank is expected to announce plans to begin cutting back on asset purchases, an important first step towards eventual rate hikes. ECB meeting The ECB is to hold its next policy meeting on Thursday amid tensions between officials over how long an inflation surge in the euro area is likely to last and whether the bank should tweak monetary policy as a result. At its last meeting in September policymakers deferred a decision on bond purchases to December, but since then euro area inflation has surged to a 13-year high amid supply bottlenecks and soaring energy prices. The Fed is likely to start tapering in November and the Bank of England has indicated that interest rate hikes are coming soon so the question is, will the ECB follow? Thursday’s post policy meeting press conference with ECB head Christine Legarde will likely give investors a clue into December’s decision. Evergrande buys time Reuters reported Sunday that China’s Evergrande had resumed work on more than 10 projects in six cities, including Shenzhen. The report came after the company appeared to avert a default last week, when it made a last-minute bond coupon payment, but there have still been no reports on progress about a comprehensive restructuring of the company’s massive debt pile. China’s second-largest property developer is mired in a debt crisis, with more than $300 billion in liabilities. The crisis at Evergrande has spread across the broader Chinese property sector, which economists say makes up around 30% of the economy, leading to a string of default announcements, rating downgrades, and slumping corporate bonds. Bitcoin volatility Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $67,016 on Wednesday, rising above April’s record propelled by bets the first U.S. bitcoin futures exchange traded funds would pave the way for more money to pour into digital assets. The new ETFs track bitcoin futures rather than the cash price. The new peak came after the world’s largest digital currency had struggled in recent months, briefly dipping below $30,000 as China cracked down on digital currencies. Bitcoin advocates believe the onset of ETFs will support prices. Others tout the digital currency as a hedge against inflation and say that is a bigger factor in its rally, but sceptics say it is more of a symptom. Either way, bitcoin volatility looks set to continue.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
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US Market Technicals Ahead (16 August – 20 August 2021)Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps to direct the market in the week ahead. At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged, but said asset purchases could start being reduced soon amid signs of a solid recovery in the US labor market and temporary inflationary pressure, and despite the lingering threat of the Delta variant. On the economic data front, latest U.S. retail sales data, along with a flurry of retail earnings will also keep the focus on consumer strength. Several large retailers including Walmart ($WMT), Target ($TGT), Macy’s ($M), Lowe's ($LOW) and Home Depot ($HD) will be reporting quarterly results. Chinese data will give a snapshot of how the economy is faring as the delta variant of the coronavirus bears down and New Zealand looks set to be one of the first of the world's advanced economies to raise interest rates in the pandemic era. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOW) hit fresh all-time highs during the week as both indexes capped off modest gains for the week. The benchmark index $SPX ended the week gaining a further +0.63% (+28 points), closing at 4,466 level. $SPX remains above its multi-month long trend channel that was earlier highlighted. Every break out of $SPX trend channel resistance has been met with a rejection (6 times since 2021). It is also important to note of the diminishing volume observed, reflecting a short term price-volume divergence in this run up. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is revised up to 4,400 level; a retracement towards its minor resistance-turned-support, and its current 20DMA level. Federal Reserve minutes On coming Wednesday the Fed will release the minutes of its July meeting, which will be scrutinized for policymakers’ views on when to start scaling back the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, as well as their outlook on the economy. Last month Fed officials declared the recovery intact despite the rise of the delta variant and since then the stronger-than-forecast July jobs report prompted several policymakers to suggest the tapering of asset purchases might start sooner rather than later. U.S. retail sales The U.S. economy is growing strongly but the spread of the delta variant remains a headwind so upcoming economic data will provide a fresh insight into consumer demand after a report on Friday showing that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in a decade. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of U.S. economic output. Investors will be eyeing Tuesday’s U.S. retail sales data to see whether the shift in spending from goods to travel, leisure and services, which aren’t reflected in retail sales, continued in July. Economists are forecasting a 0.2% fall, amid another expected steep decline in auto sales. Other reports on the slate include industrial production on Tuesday and initial jobless claims Thursday as well as the Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index on Monday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey on Thursday. China recovery China, which is dealing with its largest outbreak of Covid since the early days of the pandemic, has imposed mass testing and travel restrictions, crimping economic activity. Several Wall Street investment banks, including Goldman Sachs last week cut their China growth forecasts for the rest of the year. Data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all due out on Monday will show how the economy fared in July. The numbers are expected to slow, adding to concerns that the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum. The recovery from the pandemic has been uneven in China, with export demand driving most economic growth, while domestic demand has returned more slowly. New Zealand rate hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand bank meets on Wednesday and looks set to become the first major economy to raise interest rates since the pandemic hit as its red-hot economic recovery continues. Super-strong jobs data have cemented expectations of a hike, which would be New Zealand's first since mid-2014. This is in sharp contrast to 2020, when rates were slashed 75 basis points to 0.25% and a move below zero became a real possibility.
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by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (12 July – 16 July 2021)The US Q2 earnings season kicks off next week for an update on the private sector recovery. Starting from Tuesday, big banks including JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Bank of America ($BOA), Wells Fargo ($WFC), Citigroup ($C) and Morgan Stanley ($MS) are due to report. On the data front, Investors will also keep an eye on Fed Chair Powell semi-annual report to Congress. On the data front, consumer and producer inflation, retail sales and industrial production will provide an update on the economic recovery. Elsewhere, China GDP growth for Q2, UK CPI and jobless numbers and BoJ interest rate decision will also be in the spotlight. Here is what you need to know to start your week S&P500 (US Market) All three major averages notched record closes on Friday, after a sell-off the day before prompted by fears of slowing growth and worries that new Covid-19 variants could stall the global economic recovery. The benchmark index $SPX gained +0.5% (+21.8 points) to close at 4,372 level during the week, notching up towards another new all time high. The price ascend have allowed $SPX to break out of its trend channel resistance for the 3rd time in since February 2021. It is important to remain cautious of the existing rally, as every breakout of the highlighted channel is met with price-volume divergence weakness, along with a correction towards its channel support. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,230 level; a confluence of resistance turned support level; and break of its 50DMA.
U
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (21 June – 25 June 2021)The Federal Reserve sent ripples across financial markets after its Wednesday meeting, when it signaled that interest rate hikes could come sooner than expected. US Dollar jumped, indices fell and bond yields moved to imply higher short-term interest rates in the future. An appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell before Congress on this Tuesday will be in focus as are expectation for the tapering in bond-buying program to remain as a dominant trading theme this week and likely for the rest of the summer; as market participants digest the hawkish shift in policy guidance. Investors in the US will also turn their attention to the June flash Markit PMI survey, with forecasts suggesting growth rates in both manufacturing and services sectors remained close to May’s all-time highs due to broader economic reopening and a labor market recovery Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) Major US Indices ended sharply lower last week, with the $DJI (-3.71%) and $SPX (-2.19%) recording their worst weekly performances since late October and late February, respectively. The tech-heavy $NDX index closed with slight positive (+0.26%). The declines were marked by a slide in value stocks, a pullback in some commodity prices as well as a rally in the dollar and U.S. government bonds. This decline was also signaled previously on the bearish divergence highlighted last week. $SPX have now currently breached its 20D and 50D Moving Averages on its third consecutive session for the first time since October 2020. With $SPX now currently trading back on its mid-term trendline support, the immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,110 level; a high volume volatile price support zone set in May 2021. Hawkish Fed shift The Fed surprised markets last week when it projected two potential rate hikes in 2023, sooner than markets had anticipated and signaled that it was also reaching the point where it could begin talking about tapering its $120 billion a month stimulus program. The shift in guidance was underlined when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that a move towards faster tightening of monetary policy was a “natural” response to economic growth and rising inflation as the economy reopens in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The question of whether stronger than expected inflation would prompt the Fed to act sooner had already been hanging over financial markets in the run up to the policy meeting. Powell testimony Market participants will be closely watching comments by Fed Chair Jay Powell on Tuesday when he is due to testify, via satellite link, on the Fed’s emergency lending programs and current policies before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. In addition, several other Fed officials are due to make appearances during the week and their comments will also receive a lot of attention as markets look for fresh cues on the future direction of monetary policy. Economic data Investors will be paying close attention to the week’s upcoming economic data for clues on whether the recent surge in inflation – which saw consumer prices accelerate in May at the fastest rate in almost 13 years – is continuing. Data on personal income and spending for May is due out on Friday, which contains the core PCE price index, supposedly the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. The economic calendar also features reports on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders, manufacturing and service sector activity and the weekly report on initial jobless claims, which is given close attention, given the uneven recovery in the labor market.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Stock In Play: $VRTV (Veritiv Corporation)A quick follow up on $VRTV since our last highlight two weeks ago. With $VRTV currently trading at $66.47, a +32.55% increment since the Ascending Triangle chart pattern breakout, $VRTV have now crossed $1 Billion USD market capitalization for the first time, trading at its all time high level in the stock market. $VRTV is currently exhibiting a two weeks consolidated bullish pennant pattern, poising for a further breakout towards $70 mark. $VRTV operates as a business-to-business provider of value-added packaging products and services, as well as facility solutions, print, and publishing products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
VLong
by jfsrevg
US Stock In Play: $SUP (Superior Industries International Inc)$SUP share price surged by +34.94% parabolically in a short span of 4 trading days, breaking out of its mid-term trend channel that was established since December 2020. The latest closing price of $9.25 is a new 52 weeks high closing for $SUP. With implied volatility still remaining almost 25% away from its March peak of $0.60/day ATR-14 range, the highlighted Bearish Shooting Star reversal signal along with diminishing trading volume over its consecutive up-days may imply an imminent heavy profit session within the week. Further upside for $SUP requires immediate trading sessions to recapture this week’s high of $9.65 to negate the highlighted bearish signs. $SUP designs, manufactures, and sells aluminum wheels to the original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket distributors in North America and Europe. The company supplies aluminum wheels to the automobile and light truck manufacturers. It offers its products under the ATS, RIAL, ALUTEC, and ANZIO brand names.
NYSE:SUPLong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (31 May – 4 June 2021)In a week shortened by Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, Investors' focus turns to the May's nonfarm payrolls report to see if the unexpectedly weak April employment report was just a one-time blip Meanwhile, the ISM PMI surveys should signal solid manufacturing and service growth rates during May, on the back of the country's re-opening efforts, the ongoing government support. Energy traders will be eyeing Tuesday’s OPEC+ meeting and the euro zone is to release inflation data against a backdrop of concerns over what rising price pressures could mean for expansionary monetary policy. Here is what you need to know to start your week S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) erased all losses for the month of May, re-gaining +1.07% (+44.4 points) during the week. $SPX have successfully broke out of its sideway box range channel that was highlighted last week, infusing clarity on its short term trading direction for the month of June. $SPX is currently just 20 points away (+1.00%) from its all time high level of 4,245 level. In the meanwhile, $SPX is reflecting a minor two weeks bearish divergence within its falling price volatility along with daily trading volume on its up-days. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is remains at 4,110 level, a potential renewed test of both 20D and 50D moving averages. May jobs report could echo April weakness Friday’s May jobs report will indicate whether the unexpected weakness seen in the April jobs report was a one-off or the start of a more persistent slowdown the labor market recovery. The economy is expected to have added 650,000 new jobs in May. Just 266,000 jobs were created in April, far short of the nearly one million expected. The economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic. Economists generally are still expecting strong job growth in the months to come, as the economy reopens. ISM PMIs, Fed speakers ISM manufacturing data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by ISM services data on Thursday. Both readings are expected to be strong, but to highlight supply chain issues that are leading to shortages and higher prices. ADP nonfarm payrolls data is due on Thursday, one day later than usual due to Monday’s holiday, along with the weekly figures on initial jobless claims. The Fed’s beige book on the economy is due out on Wednesday and several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak during the week, including Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair will participate in a panel at a climate change conference on Friday together with International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Wary stock market Stock market investors will be closely watching economic data and comments from Fed officials amid ongoing concerns the central bank may begin to pull back on its massive stimulus measures as price pressures rise. Inflation concerns have persisted for several weeks and weighed on growth names, pulling down the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which posted its first monthly decline since October. Volatility has risen even as the S&P 500 has rebounded to less than 1% below its May 7 record high, and the index saw its smallest monthly gain in the past four in May. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Stock In Play: $JYNT (The Joint Corp)$JYNT continues its price ascend of +19.55% over the past week, after making a breakthrough from its month long Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern. The closing price of $JYNT is at $53, $4 away from the last established high that was highlighted previously. Market capitalization of $JYNT remains below $1 Billion in valuation, with current trading price equating its market capitalization at $726 million. At the current junction, $JYNT is trading at its all time high with no signs of witness during the run up over the past two days. The projected target from the mentioned breakout of its chart pattern is at $55.50, well within a sessional ATR away from its current daily implied volatility. $JYNT develops, owns, operates, supports, and manages chiropractic clinics in the United States
NASDAQ:JYNTLong
by jfsrevg