Usstockmarket
DJI running triangle scenario (wave analysis)What if we are looking at running triangle?
wave E = 61.8% of wave C.
after DJI reached this approximate level, it energetically bounced back regaining 26000.
Facebook FB already stopped falling yesterday. the exact same pattern occurred on December, 26, 2018.
this is the main alternative to DJI Big Short idea, which is presented in publication "DJI darkest times since 2009? (wave analysis)".
bullish scenario will be confirmed when DJI breaks 27400.
long-term buy targets will be considered after confirmation. now you may view Fibonacci extensions of "wave 1?" by scrolling up the chart.
US stocks end higher, boosted by energy sector gains 24-10-2019The price of the index repeated its negative closures below the stable barrier at 3030.00, increasing the chances of forming a corrective bearish trading during the short and medium period.
Changing the negative trend requires the price to rally upwards, exceeding the extension of the historical resistance and currently stable at 3030 and open that door to target new historical levels that may start from 3100 and 3150
NQ time is nearly up.The way I see the NQ it has been in this ascending triangle bouncing of the orange trend creating higher lows, and failing to break 7980 resistance.
Has been coiling up for a good couple months now and looking at the wedge I don't think there is much more time before we see a break 1-2 months max.
Momentum is positive on the weekly however is looking a bit exhausted.
How to Trade the SPX in October 2019Look for the SPX to trade rangebound between 2960 and 2880 for 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a significant move either to the upside or downside.
Its too early to tell which way the move will resolve, so be watching closely. My bias is towards the downside, specifically towards the trend-line at 2790, but considering the amount of liquidity the Fed has already pumped into the market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P shoot higher.
If Dow Jones fails to retest upper channel line, it could breakThe Dow has run into some resistance near prior highs. Thus far it has been unable to retest the upper rising channel line. It needs to break above short-term resistance to maintain momentum in this uptrend. Failure to do so will make us much more interested in how the market behaves at the lower channel line, which it could break through, as shown by the blue bars.
SPX: Medium term long to a Higher High.The index is trading within a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.360, MACD = 38.130, Highs/Lows = 5.5037) since late February. Since the May Higher High, the pattern has been respecting the Higher High/ Higher Low marks providing clear buy/ sell signals.
The price just broke above the 1D MA50 which has been the Resistance for a whole month (August) since the 2,780 Higher Low. With this strong break-out, the index should now technically test the 3,030 1W Resistance and then move on to a new Higher High within 3,065 - 3,085. We remain long on SPX.
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DJI darkest times since 2009? (wave analysis) On Dec 27, 2018 I assumed 2 main alternatives for DJI trend in update to DJIA long term forecast (wave analysis) publication.
On last Friday it became obvious that 2nd alternative is in play. (the most probable outcome)
"2) bear market have just completed 1st wave of bigger drop. so price might continue downward move after a reasonable correction." — Dec 27, 2018
Price action overview: Here we have an ABC (red) expanding flat pattern, which forms wave 4 major correction of wave 3 (October 2011 — January 2018 trend).
wave A (red) consists of abc (blue) expanding flat pattern. c = 161.8% of a
wave B (red) consists of abc (blue) zig-zag pattern. c = 61.8% of a
wave B (red) equals 61.8% of wave A (red) in time scale.
Forecast: I consider DJI to drop 29% of its peak value and reach 19463 in late November - early winter. wave C (red) to be 161.8% of wave A (red).
DJI should drop at least to 20423 (38.2% correction of October 2011 — January 2018 price trend)
alternative wave count:
entire structure can be also described as A-B-C-D-E expanding triangle pattern.
wave D = 161.8% of wave B
in this case forecasted price target would be almost the same — 18921. 31% drop.
Central banks' plan to push everything higherWe live in an era where everything is in a bubble. In bubbles people buy stuff not because they provide value, but because they can quickly find a greater fool to sell it to them. It is the point where everyone is buying because others are buying and want to make easy money. Money without doing any homework, without a plan. As a trader and investor you keep cautiously buying stuff as long as they maintain their momentum and their structure. In such situations you keep on buying dips until the music stops.
For now what I see is a beautiful re-accumulation that looks like the one back in 2015-2016. A really long period of sideways where higher highs and higher lows were forming slowly after the market was really scared the rally was over due to the lower low. It is noteworthy that US stocks have held very well during a period of quantitative tightening and rate hikes. Now more cuts and quantitative easing are coming for sure, while most people have been or have just turned bearish. The US economy is the strongest in the world and its bond market is the healthiest by far. People will most likely prefer it that negative yielding bonds.
To me this will be the last leg up. During 2007-2008 the market first went up when the rate cuts started and then fell. The bond yield curve inverting doesn't tell me too much as people are going into bonds anyways. Yes there are many bearish factors, but this doesn't mean I am going to short stocks. Avoid shorting a bubble as it can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent.
Staying mostly in cash & gold, minimizing exposure to stocks, buying defensive stocks and definitely buying some Bitcoin isn't a bad idea. In my view central banks will lower rates, print more money and ban cash. These will definitely push several markets higher sooner than later. As for the potential crash... Nobody knows when or if it will come. Normally I'd expect 1-2 years of upside from here, but Central banks could print so much and cut rates to -2, -3, -4%. This would makes stocks more attractive than cash, bonds and bank deposits.
For now Central banks struggle producing inflation (which is their moto). They have inflated assets to unreal prices, be that housing, stocks or bonds. Everything is quite expensive right now and it could get much more expensive. Central banks might fail to produce inflation now... But once we reach a tipping point, inflation will spiral out of control. Then when Central Banks try to control it everything will most likely crash.
We are already in a low growth environment and the global growth is definitely slowing down. The global economy is getting worse and worse instead of getting better, and Central banks know that. Their goal is to keep this ponzi going rather than helping countries grow. Many people have already started losing faith in their ability to manage monetary policy effectively. Like with many stock markets in developing countries, we could see stocks go higher and higher as their national currencies is constantly losing value and people find stocks as a safe heaven.
DJI August 19 Top Setup - Be Prepared!My expectations are that earnings will come in much weaker than Q2 2018 because of the trade wars and consumer demand decreases. Yes, there will be some positive news, but I believe the markets will change dynamics based on forward guidance and Q2 earnings data, rotate lower and setup a sideways pennant formation that will eventually setup an August 19, 2019 market TOP.
After this Aug 19 date, I believe the US stock market (and global markets) will likely fall 15 to 20%+ setting up a bottom near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This move is very unexpected by the global traders. Recent psychological levels ($300 SPY, $3000 ES) have already been hit. I believe these levels were critical to the setup for this next leg lower.
I believe skilled technical traders only have about 30 days to prepare for this move and I believe the move lower will initiate in late August or early September.
I urge all skilled technical traders to plan and prepare for this move.
Short SPX 500 Next 2-4 WeeksClear sell-off in process. Looking for previous support levels to be reached.
In the next two weeks I see a pullback for SPXS right after SPX finds a brief bottom and consolidates for a short bit my target buy for SPXS is the 21’s and my Target sell is $25.
$29 SPXS coincides with ~2550 SPX. This is possible by Mid-July. (4 1/2 weeks).
US Stock Market Set to Test the 200DMAHi everybody,
As everyone knows we have seen some massive volatility in the us stock market in Q4 2018. We had a death cross when the 50DMA plunged through the 200DMA, but if you look back in time this in itself doesn't really mean a whole lot. There have been many death crosses which simply resulted in a correction which then rallied only to turn back into a continuation of the bull market.
Is the bull market over? The answer to that question will be answered very soon here. What I expect is for stocks to rally up to the 200DMA and then we will get our answer. If stocks get rejected by the 200DMA and turn lower, then that will tell us that this bull market has most definitely turned into a bear and I would expect a significant sell off. However, if they rally and push through and break through to the upside of the 200DMA then this was just a correction and I would anticipate a rally using the 200DMA as support.
Best of luck and happy 2019!
US BEAR MARKET - DOWRising trendline broken, horizontal trendline to be tested and then broken. Look out below as long bear market is on its way.
Apple ahead of US Open tomorrowBy Andria Pichidi - November 22, 2018
As US Markets are closed for Thanksgiving day, APPLE closed lower yesterday by $2.76. Apple is approaching its immediate support at 175.53 (20-month SMA) where it could find some support and could potentially rise in the short-term to its immediate resistance at 185.23-185.60 ( area between 61.8% Fibonacci extension and high price after the gap seen on Tuesday).
However as the overall outlook is strongly bearish, on the break of 175.53 , Apple share price could potentially fall to its Support at 171.00 (100% & 161.8% Fibonacci extension).
RSI is at 29, suggesting further space to the downside, while MACD extends lines below signal line.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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SICK sector rotations to defensive stocks for US stock market!I posted so much less stock ideas this quarter as generally I like to long stock that I'm willing to invest, and look for bullish set-ups.
While even I'm still bullish in so many names, but there aren't so many bullish set-ups in this market.
Wait a minute, defensive stocks are big exceptions and perfect choice for bottom-up strategy recently, and it's more than reasonable!
KO
PG
MCD
YUM
COST
and other classic defensive names like VZ, JNJ, MRK, PEP all showed great relative strength than the market!
(T is the lagger though)
That is, P/E ratio for tech stocks encounters huge corrections and the money come out of them just ran into these defensive stocks.
U.S stock market is still the top choice as there aren't many better alternatives.
While, investors tend to turn money into defensive stocks to fight for fluctuations.
In conclusion, it's still far from a financial crisis and it's still not too late to look for long opportunities in this sector!
Let's see how it goes!
US stock markets in for the next leg down SPX500 is showing clear signs of bearishness with the formation of head and shoulders tops, 2730 level being the clear resistance. We will have confirmation of downtrend underway once the hourly candle closes below 2702 support level.
I expect the market to make its move following US midterm election's results
Be careful shorting before the topIn my chart analysis I indicated my future expectations for market movement.
I know that my perspective is that of the minority, but it's always worth looking at the market from a different perspective, as it may just save you from a massive loss.
As always this is simply for educational purposes and not financial advice*
Good luck trading,
Zerotozeros12
Expect google to reveal positive earnings!October 25th google will post their earnings; I expect that they will be positive (along with many other leading tech sector companies). This will lead to one last rally in the market.
I indicated on the chart where I see Google reaching out to, prior to a massive throw over following shortly after. One second the whole market will be elated by new highs and the next second bear selling will completely devastate any that are holding longs. I will likely close my position slightly ahead of target and begin opening shorts around 1450 and double down as we get closer to target. I know my perspective is that of a minority, but I believe that it is worth considering before fully committing to a bearish mindset.
*As always this is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only.
Let me know what your thoughts are on the market and where you see us heading!
Good luck trading,
Zerotozeros12
Key price level for US Stock Market - Neutral With the US30USD price sitting at a strong horizontal and upwards trend-line support - the market technical analysis here points at upwards movement (Strong pin-bar bounce from support line).
Although our market analysis points towards a potential move up, you should only enter a position if you see a strong break-out above the 25,500 level.
The DJIA could still be under pressure from the increased interest rates and geo-political tensions, if the bears are able to move the price down below this key support level then the market is in serious trouble and there could a downtrend formation in play.
You should always combine a fundamental and technical analysis together. This can give you a much better insight into where the market is looking to go. Simply using technical analysis is not good enough.
This is not investment advice - Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading. Good luck!
S&P 500 SPXFear is in the market, reasonably so, after such a huge drop. We haven't seen anything like this since February. Many are suggesting that this is the beginning of the bear market, if you're one of those individuals, I'd recommend waiting for more signs to support that idea. As If things end of playing out the way I believe they will, you will end up with a large loss. Not to say that I am correct and you are wrong, but simply suggesting that there is an alternative count and to be careful, I'd hate for you guys to get sucked into a trap. Expecting a bounce to begin around the 2680 range and followed with strong upward momentum.
AS ALWAYS THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
For educational purposes and a means to share ideas.
What do you think is happening in the market?
I'd like to hear your ideas!
Zerotozeros
Potential further pullback for Dow Jones IndexThese are just normal market cycles, likely to happen.
DJI Daily Chart Analysis - 26th Jun#DJI
It's not a perfect wave pattern but I think we might be at the end of a correction wave.
Hopefully today we can see a good bounce today and continue the uptrend momentum
DOW JONES - Trading update 11th of JunePotential bearish outlook for the US30.
Momentum slowing down, resistance at 25500.
On the other hand, price strongly respected the 25000 mark, so let's see if that holds.
