US Treasuries Performance - 1 YRIf negative rates are set to accelerate, it's important to look at the corresponding treas. performance over the past year.
UST
BTC - Short Open a short position after the first time line.
Targets
10800
10400
9700
Stop loss 11300
A Prevision for the next 10 days.I see a little 3 percent up to form a double top . Pull Back to take the effect of the rising wedge.
After that we are out of the compression.
New cycle can begin slowly.
Happy trading.
Try to catch at purple lines .
Try to sell at yellow or green lines
LTC//USDT//correction // 0.38% or 0.50%/drawing an AB-CD patternltc
ltc coin will undergo a correction to the pivot point
attentive for an advance purchase
respecting the bullish channel and drawing an AB-CD pattern
US 10YR T-notes. Bear Flag. Sell on breakdownFED announced balance trimming.
The technicals perfectly match that decision (always a matter of disputes between tech analysts and macro analysts).
We got large correction before and broke below it.
Now the price made a perfect pullback to the broken line shaping my favorite Bear Flag pattern.
Watch to sell on breakdown.
US 10 year Bond yield / note .. preparing for fed hike ... Analysis of important data ametrics for 13 December fed rate hike based on fedwatch - fed funds futures - > www.cmegroup.com
COTs data used: non commercial long and short data as % of open interest ...
EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHSEnd of Week Summary:
1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year.
2. Given the articles attached, this week was also the first week where risk-on/ risk-off positive correlations broke down and went back to some degree of normalcy, with Gold, Yen and bonds ending the week down some 5 - although the TRY Military Coup did cause some risk anxiety late on friday and caused safe havens to par some of their losses by 1% to close down apprx 4%.
3. Drivers of the risk-on rally i must say did come as a surprise, given the relatively subdued economic climate post brexit, with little planned risk-on drivers in sight. However, it was JPY's surprise talk from PM Abe/ BOJ Kuroda easing/ stimulus speculations at the start of the week (speculations around y10-20trn) that gave risk markets some legs - despite the reliability of the claims being denied by much of the JPY Govt though there certainly is no smoke without fire.
4. The other winner of the week was USD , much of which was safe haven demand on Friday (TRY Coup) but $ strength had built through the week on the back of hawkish FOMC speak sentiment (see attached) and risk markets rallying, causing rates to also rally (UST 10y averaging +4-5%) where all have contributed to increased market confidence which has translated into higher projected rate hike probabilities for their Sept/ Nov/ Dec meetings - currently at 12.9%/14.4%/38%, which is pretty much a 100% increase in expectations on the week.
- Once risk got going, given the severe depression, it was unsurprising that it did manage to run away higher - as safe havens needed a correction higher, if only in the short term.
Next week Projections:
1. Given last week, and most of friday, the obvious expectation would be to expect risk to continue on the offer and making new highs - however, late on friday afternoon we saw risk-on/risk-off balance tip in favour of safe havens as the TRY Coup uncertainty increased risk-off demand.
- Friday traditionally is a weak day for risk anyway as 1) end of week sellers/ weekend flat risk books cause a natural selling of risk, and a natural buying of safe havens as portfolios look to hedge weekend event risk over the two days that the markets are closed (especially as the session ended i the middle of the TRY coup).
- That in mind, i was surprised to see risk even trading better than safe havens on mid afternoon Friday at all (until TRY) - with Yen falling to 106.3 and goldd down 0.9%, i was confident that we would enter Monday with a risk-on tone.
UST/SPX:BONDS/STOCKS RATIO BREAKING OUT?Price kept coming down inside this down trending channel for the last two years.
1,618 area gave two long entries, first being the most successful so far and second being the most safe and low risk due to double bottom and bullish divergence at the end of March.
Major obstacle now, after broke the upper channel line, is the last known overhead supply, that is stopping price the last three months.
If it's an original break out, or a false one - like it did couple of times with the dashed wedge line in the daily tf - remains to be seen.
MA65 works very well in the daily chart.
Cheers,
P
SPY/TNX ratio Been following this chart for a while, as a possible healthy/sick performance indicator for stocks.
The SPY/TNX ratio is diverging for the last two years now, and If I read correctly this chart, it's not stocks healthy for sure. Of course can be diverging for ages or even centuries in this economic recovery miracle we all live in, until already built in energy pressure finds a way out.
During 2008 foretold the coming disaster. At the 2009 bottom gave an early, successful, long entry, while mid 2011 the divergence led to a correction.
What about now? I guess patience it's the only way to find out sooner or later...
Cheers
Panos
