USD ETF UUP extending gains, but background highlights cautionExtending gains to test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26.38. Sentiment remains cautious, suggesting difficulty reaching congestion around 26.60.
Bull signal from 26.29 intact.
UUP
DXY/VIX Ratio 8/3/2016This ratio looks like it wants to drop - in which case we should witness one of these three situations: 1. VIX rising more than DXY rising, 2. VIX falling less than DXY falling, 3. VIX rising plus DXY falling
DXY 6/24/2016The black line at around 96.72 mercilessly rejected the Dollar on 6/24/2016. Watch the lines for setting up short positions.
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data.
However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending:
The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure.
The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over.
In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend)
The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining).
We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur.
MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur.
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DXY 4/29/2016Watch the black line - it extends back to 1985. The DXY heading towards it means the market is questioning the entire breakout since 2015.
UUP Technicals Hi, this is my first post.
Sharing my view of US Dollar Index DXY threw UUP, where options can be trade.
I would suggest to be careful entering long at this point because of the followings:
1-Weekly chart Hanging Man (signal potential reverse of bullish trend)
2-ATR signalling we might be reversing trend in 4H chart (top yellow circle)
3-MACD lines crossed on 4H chart , also on Daily and 2Days
4-CMF divergence in 4H and is under zero (negative flow), Weekly chart CMF = 0.48, with maximum value of 0.50, Weekly MFI = 83.6 (overbought signal)
5-RSI Weekly chart at 81.2 (overbought signal)
6-Monthly chart touched RSI_BAND top band (overbought signal)
7-CCI touched (-100) + (potential reverse signal of momentum)
8-Stochastics Monthly chart is in overbought territory
9-We are at resistance
10-The look of this chart (personal)
Feel free to comment on my analysis.
Enjoy !
Overextended, crowded tradeThe US Dollar is a crowded trade, nearly everyone is in it because of the obviousness of the YEN and EURO against the dollar, and most other currencies for that matter. If it breaks above 90 this could continue. But, this is the third time the price has been here in that last 6,7 years, and it has retracted every time it hit this level. Commodity prices are itching to go higher.
Dollar rally: Surprise is realized & now wait for the shock....In our earlier chart posted in Jan of 2014, we mentioned that this DOLLAR rally will come as surprise to many. Now we have hard evidence. Expect DOLLAR to pullback and then go for next significant rally. At the moment it is very hard to time all this but all this could happen in a year or two from now...
The "Silver" Lining: Unwinding something twisted too tightlyClassic example as to why you shouldn't listen to the sell-side & mainstream media...
UUP update - 09/18/2014Dollar faces major resistance established since 2008. It is also in an overbought situation not seen since 2010. Meanwhile, gold appears to be sitting a major support established since 2010. Next couple of weeks should be interesting.
USDCAD - No bigger correction will ever comeFailed H&S pattern breakdown means the H&S WILL materialize itself in the near future bringing possibly
1.13. No more correction!!!
UUP Dollar Bullish Fund Carving Out Inverse Head & Shoulders Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility.
This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30% spike in the VIX this tells a tale of risk aversion and flight to safety into bonds, US Dollar and possibly gold.
Given taper to continue, you want to bet gold or dollar?If you trust the chart (chart does not lie), GLD is the way to go! I know this defies common sense and logic.
