Vixfutures
VIXY Is anyone seeing what im seeing???A topped out market showing major bearish divergences on multiple oscillators, volatility is dirt cheap and just using the most very simple basic TA anyone looking at the S and P 500 can say it is extremely overbought and just damn expensive, how much more upside can be possible in this market???? Do not get sucked in for 27 a share the upside is out of control especially if we get a major 2008 type scenario which seems to be closer and closer you will make more $$$. these are once a decade opportunities
SPX Pre FED Interest Rate Decision Analysis - 4 Hour ChartGood Evening Traders,
I hope everybody is doing good.
In this analysis, we will have a look at the SPX. We can see that the SPX is currently in a range of 2555.86 and 2684.14. However, I am expecting a break lower this week. I am expecting a hawkish FED on Wednesday in it' FOMC Statement which can be a catalyst for a move lower.
With that said, I think a break of the rising trendline from 04-02-2018 to the downside will occur this week for a retest of the 2-year rising trendline. This range play can us take for at least a few days/weeks. Having a look at the second chart which is the volatility index (VIX). You can see that the instrument is trapped in a bullish triangle pattern. As long as it stays above 14.58 it should extend higher, which will put pressure on the SPX as they are negatively correlated to each other.
I am expecting a retest of the 2593.82 trendline in the ideal case.
This view will be invalid once SPX breaks 2684.14 resistance.
I hope you enjoyed this view.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.
BUY VIX The U.S. stock market’s main volatility gauge -- the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX -- is at its lowest level since 2007. That seems strange in light of the geopolitical anxiety surrounding the French elections, the saber rattling with North Korea and the mixed fiscal and economic signals coming from the U.S.
While gallons of ink have been spilled on whether the VIX is “broken,” some traders are now suggesting that exchange-traded products linked to the index have a hand in the perceived distortion. What’s more, they warn, their popularity -- VIX ETPs have absorbed $700 million this year -- could exacerbate a selloff if volatility spikes.Long-VIX ETPs “roll” contracts to maintain their exposure. Each day they’ll sell the front-month contract and buy more of the second-month contract. This can suppress the price of the front-month and raise the cost of the second -- steepening the front end of the curve into an upward slope known as a contango. While no one is saying that ETPs alone can alter the curve, steepness has increased with the uptick in the products’ assets.
Maximum gain at expiration (VIX at 22 or above): $380
Maximum loss at expiration: substantial if VIX falls to zero; if VIX stays above an 11 put strike price but below 18, we lose the premium of $20.
Entry: today using the ticket
Stop: we will pull out if the VIX falls below 9
Target: 22 or above
Time horizon: 26 days
Vix June futures Long @ 12.00; TP 14.00, SL your choiceVix June futures Long @ 12.00; TP 14.00, SL your choice
Volatility Outlook (VIX) June 2016During periods of risk the VIX tends to get inverted- typically during times of stress this has stay inverted for quite some time, 6 weeks after last years shock valuation from China.
When this curve goes back to a normal upwards sloping curve, this is usually a very good sign.
The US equity markets has been pricing in the UK as an 'island', the risk of Brexit is enormous.
The problem is and this is where the options market gets it right, it's going to be like watching a really boring movie in slow motion.
There are not a lot of near time trading events from an options point of view, or a risk point of view.
Borris has taken himself out, how do you really trade that? there are not a lot of really tradable events in the near-term.
The end of quarter beta chase were not as important had be not had the Brexit and market been up 9% YTD
The volatility floor, globally will rise to a higher level - it really comes down to the political dynamics in the euro-zone, if these can be contained.
TVIX READY FOR BIG MOVE? RETEST HIGHER LIKELYTVIX has been playing well off of daily S/R outlined in chart, likely pops soon or else 2.75 support could test. My guess is it at least tries for 3.84, and if strong enough, we could extend targets to 4.25 area.
bounce off of 3.00 strong so far