Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
See the VXX since-2015 chart for recent actions.
Couldn't break back below that green line last week. See the VXX all-time chart to see where these lines come from.
Volatility traders over the last weeks have been seeing a "flattening" of volatility structure and have not been getting the returns they were expecting for contango trades. (If you want to see contango at work, pull up a 5 year chart of UVXY. Those losses? Contango.) These charts show what is happening. The VIX (short term volatility) is rising from its...