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Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
4
VIX Volatility approaching a peak. Bottom sign for stocks?Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high: It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low. This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg). The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate. Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day, the end-of-the-year rally. However, we see a deceleration on VIX's decline, while its 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross since December 01. Being so close to the Channel Down bottom, a technical rebound is technically plausible and the pattern is recurring as it resembles a lot the previous Lower Lows. If it does reverse upwards, the SPX can react a few days later as during the previous bottom process and reversal (June 22 - July 27) it lagged. In any case, this pattern shows that by January 2024, we should expect heightened volatility translated potentially into a (short-term at least) pull-back on the stock market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
5
💡 SPX Seasonality: Sell in May and Go Away. Here's Memorial DayMemorial Day (originally known as Decoration Day) is a federal holiday in the United States for honoring and mourning the U.S. military personnel who have died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. For nowadays, it is observed on the last Monday of May, and this year it is observed on May 29, 2023. Memorial Day is considered a U.S. stock market holiday, which means the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will be closed Monday, May 29. What is Sell in May and Go Away? Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. The phrase refers to an investment strategy for stocks based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the four-month period between May and October (since June until September). In contrast, the 3-months period since November and until January sees much stronger stock market growth. For many past years I used many other websites to analyze seasonality of major stocks, indices, Fx pairs and commodities. Thanks to TradingView community and its awesome @tradeforopp wizard, the script Seasonality has changed the rules . As it described on Indicator webpage , This Seasonality indicator is meant to provide insight into an asset's average performance over specified periods of time (Daily, Monthly, and Quarterly). How the Sell in May and Go Away Strategy Works If investors follow the Sell in May and Go Away strategy, they sell stocks at the End of May (or during the late spring) and have the proceeds held in cash. Then, the investors would invest again in early October (or in the late autumn). That means, the investors would avoid holding stock during the summer months. History of Sell in May and Go Away 👉 “Sell in May and Go Away” has its origins in England or, more specifically, in London’s financial district. The original phrase was “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” with the latter event referring to a horse race. 👉 Established in 1776, the St. Leger Stakes is one of the most well-known horse races in England, being the last leg of the British Triple Crown and is run at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire in September of every year. In its original context, the adage recommended that British investors, aristocrats, and bankers should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months while escaping the London heat, and return to the stock market in the autumn after the St. Leger Stakes. 👉 In the U.S., some investors have adopted a similar strategy by refraining from investing during the period between Memorial Day in May and Labor Day in September. Relevant Statistics and Considerations 👉 Historical data have generally supported the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage over the many years. The S&P 500 Index has recorded a cumulative three-month average annualized return of more than 10% in the period between November to January, based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 At the other side, S&P500 an average annualized gain is about Zero between May and October (June till September), based on the same statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 Seasonal factors play an important role here, as end-of-year bonuses and the Santa Claus Rally, which refers to the stock market’s tendency to rally over the last few weeks of December into the first few months of the new year. Some theories behind it include increased holiday shopping, optimism and morale fueled by the Thanksgiving Day, winter holidays, or investors settling their books before going on holiday. February and March are relatively mild in terms of growth. The stock market could lifts in April and May due to the anticipated release of the first-quarter reports (for example, like after recently announced Q1'23 NASDAQ:NVDA report). 👉 In contrast, the summer time tends to be less optimistic, with first-quarter results over and many people spending less time paying attention to stocks as they go on summer vacation. In addition, specifically in election years, there tends to be a weakness of the stock market in September due to the uncertainty of the election results. The conclusion 👉 It should be noted that returns have often varied in different time periods, and there have been many exceptions. 👉 However the upper chart (SPX Seasonality) clearly illustrates that based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years, the timeframe since June until September, averagely is the worst time to invest into SP500 Index, while June and September are the worst performer months over the all history of S&P500 since 1870s. 👉 Memorial Day could be considered as a starting point for the strategy, where the negative return of the following business day (or business week in a case of no significant change) after Memorial Day usually predicts the further stock market trends and directions until October (begin of fourth quarter).
CBOE:SPX
by Pandorra
4
😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking AboutThe stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over. 👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure. 👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind. The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between VXN2023 a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - VXJ2023 - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over. 👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening. SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row. 👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish . All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
15
VIX (VX) Close to Completing Tradable Bottom on Daily ChartThe VX experienced a bit of profittaking Friday, but has rebounded somewhat in today's session so far. The uptrend support line connecting the lows from July, August and last week appears to be holding. The daily RSI and Stochastics are now turning up, and should be followed by a daily MACD positive crossover shortly. Weekly RSI and Stochastics are trying to bottom, although the weekly MACD blue line is still sloping down. Feel free to visit goo.gl for today's technical analysis on $VIX, $ES_F, $KC_F, $NQ_F, $EURUSD, $DX_F, $SI_F, $NG_F, $AUDUSD, $EURCHF, $GBPUSD, $CT_F Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
VLong
by TradablePatterns