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"What if?" scenario. What if a Short Squeeze hadn't taken place?In April 12th Bitcoin's price shot from 6.8k to 8.1k in less than 10 minutes. I remember waking up, since it was 7 am where I live, looked at the price and was surprised to see a sudden drop from ~7k to ~6.8k. I went to the kitchen and started my coffee, took the dog outside, came back and turned the computer on. It light's up in less than 30 seconds. Cryptowat.ch is my homepage so when I hit Chrome, not ten minutes after getting out of bed, the price was at 7.9k. I thought the cache was bugged or something so I loaded up Coinmarketcap. I couldn't believe it. Luckily I had a Long order open since 6.1k and rode that bitch up. I was expecting just another Pump/Dump scheme since those had been happening quite regularly (price shotting up in a 5 minute candle, going sideways for hours and then slamming down). That and the fact we were still in a bear market made me use my gains from this move to open up a short. We were in the 6k's for days, weeks, with no relevant movement other than the fucking PnD's. Opening a short at 8.1k was awesome. And a mistake. This crazy rise wasn't a pump; it may have ~started from a pump~, but Short's stop-losses started to get triggered, creating buy orders, and a domino effect ensued. We had the opposite of a flash crash. All was fine until then, since we were still in a bear market I expected the price to eventually drop again. But then something weird started happening. People started calling "the bulls are back" like crazy. People FOMO'd in like crazy. I remained skeptical, waiting for the dump. It never came, and the price just kept rising. Make no mistake, the amazing rise from 6.8k to 10k was mostly fueled by FOMO created by the Short Squeeze, and the Short Squeeze was probably caused by one of those Pump/Dump schemes, but it finally had an irreversible effect: indirectly caused major FOMO. So, after thinking all this through in the shower today, while I was watching the price slowly going down from 10k to 9k, I wondered: "What if that fucking Short Squeeze never took place?" So very rudimentary, I took a graph and "blanked out" the Short Squeeze candle, and dragged the price down accordingly. This "vision" does NOT account for the FOMO generated by eventual buy orders that ensued in rallies AFTER the ShortSqueeze. The price would be around 8200. Had that not happened, I believe the price would still be struggling to break 7k, and would've possibly plummeted down to 5k, after finally breaking the major support in the 6k area. There, at 5k, a reversal would probably take place and price would slowly crawl back to the 6k's for probably weeks, maybe months, as people kept losing interest. That would be the "Early Accumulation" phase that starts coinciding with "late distribution" on bear market cycle and starting a new bull market cycle. Since that's not the scenario and the Short Squeeze took place, we could very well already be in "Mid-Accumulation", where we have a Markup (a fast rise in price, but even for Crypto a jump from 6.8k to 8.1k happened ~way too fast~) and the price starts making higher lows and higher highs. But. We just witnessed a rejection at the 10000's, a big psychological barrier (it wasn't during the bullrun because hype was so big and buyers were so many that this barrier was just trampled; this is not the case now as way less people are interested in Bitcoin). Bitcoin shyly touched it and the zombie hungry bears came back, causing the price to drop ~10% in a day. I believe the Short Squeeze's effect didn't anticipate Mid Accumulation. I believe it just triggered another bull trap. Traps happen on FOMO rallies, and I'm fairly sure that is what happened. And I honestly believe this could cause the bubble pop/crash to continue to where it should've been, possibly even lower. Get your fiat ready to buy the lows. 6000's offered great support and a bounce is expected there. Ride it up, close your long and wait it out. Image for What If Scenario in comments.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by bgrandimbtc
1
What Mcafee Knows and did not say! costs you only 5Mins!Hi freinds, I wish that u had a good time (specially the holders that see a sunshine 0.00% after a dark night!). Right onto the real deal! Do You remember my first published text on Monday 19.03.2018? (if not BTCReal price undervalued(no more bubble!)could not stay<7-8k! ). I have said a clue that was forgotten by many charters and analysers! the BTC 1.38% is not a paper like money, have a real value(like gold -0.26% that word of mining and miner referring on that!) based on a real costs like miner devices, energy, electricity ...etc. Differing to many of coins (like XRP) the Satoshi's algorithm is defined a unique way that let the mining process to become always more and more complicated and therefor more expensive(yes but reminding that our technology will make us better and more powerful mining devices but Bitcoins 1.38% price getting that hype in the last 6 Months of 2016 had a so intensive Momentum that made it for our technology's evolution untouchable to set his new acceleration's rate so high like Btc 1.38% ). That caused this acceleration phenomen (i call it or actually define it with this word!) that made the mining process to be always more expensive. On the other hand the hype of public attention (cryptomania! the media power!) could be so strong that this time the increasingly mining process had no chance to catch it and being counted in comparison to the Cryptomania . (actually it was not so irrational like his name and mean to buy a good more expensive as the real cost/price ratio. Why it could becoming more expensive tomorrow! in reality try to buying the future!) It made it not just an accelerated increasing model of price-charts, even far away much speedier what i call it as "logarithmic pattern"like what we have learned and see it just in mathematics but not in a real market even high-tech stocks . Take a look to the red line bottom of the chart. Its a line that could be reached by dips and bottoms. This line have been tones of times used by analysers(so called Trend line) but no one could explain why it is do hard to predict it with all of indicators. Sometimes would match with fibonacci Retracement but not always and if, it could come through any percentage that lead some of analysers use this pattern but more without standart fibonacci Percentages!. I have thought about that so many times... Why we could see it only after the crash of cryptomania have made by the Media. I did Know the Effect of Media made crazy manner but what have i not noticed was the forgotten slowly increasing real Value (based on Minings costs) of BTC so underestimated that this market called as speculative markets(and the last one is actually well matched by a standard bubble effect!) But what made the BTC so strong all the time to hold on? Then i have noticed the 3rd Factor the forgotten real Value! That show his self sometimes as trendline, or technical support but just in periods that we dont have any hype and could be almost defined as average of the mining costs + about 1K! And as you see this line have changed laterly increasingly the angle that showed the accumulating effects of the expanding transactions defined by satoshi-System + rising interest for mining in publicity! Jeah!you Know what Mr. Mcafee knows and made it sure about that! ( So sure to betting his Manhood on it)! Yes! now that the secret is finally revealed take a look at my chart one more time and trying to recall some of the math-stuff in school.can you see the pattern? The real Btc-chart of value is actually disclosed and showed his real pattern (also accelerated by the increasingly mining difficulty=see the Angles) to after the ending of the public hype amid to crashing from his bubble(by comparison between the speculative with cost-based price!! IF you liked it plz 0.00% like & use with copyright!! Light be with You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Dr_shibeh
4
What Mcafee knows, Don't says2 (Edited)Hie Friends, I wish that u had a good time (specially the holders that see a sunshine 0.00% after a dark night!). Right onto the real deal! Do You remember my first published text on Monday 19.03.2018? (if not BTCReal price undervalued(no more bubble!)could not stay<7-8k! ). I have said a clue that was forgotten by many charters and analysers! the BTC 1.38% is not a paper like money, have a real value(like gold -0.26% that word of mining and miner referring on that!) based on a real costs like miner devices, energy, electricity ...etc. Differing to many of coins (like XRP) the Satoshi's algorithm is defined a unique way that let the mining process to become always more and more complicated and therefor more expensive(yes but reminding that our technology will make us better and more powerful mining devices but Bitcoins 1.38% price getting that hype in the last 6 Months of 2016 had a so intensive Momentum that made it for our technology's evolution untouchable to set his new acceleration's rate so high like Btc 1.38% ). That caused this acceleration phenomen (i call it or actually define it with this word!) that made the mining process to be always more expensive. On the other hand the hype of public attention (cryptomania! the media power!) could be so strong that this time the increasingly mining process had no chance to catch it and being counted in comparison to the Cryptomania . (actually it was not so irrational like his name and mean to buy a good more expensive as the real cost/price ratio. Why it could becoming more expensive tomorrow! in reality try to buying the future!) It made it not just an accelerated increasing model of price-charts, even far away much speedier what i call it as "logarithmic pattern"like what we have learned and see it just in mathematics but not in a real market even high-tech stocks . Take a look to the red line bottom of the chart. Its a line that could be reached by dips and bottoms. This line have been tones of times used by analysers(so called Trend line) but no one could explain why it is do hard to predict it with all of indicators. Sometimes would match with fibonacci Retracement but not always and if, it could come through any percentage that lead some of analysers use this pattern but more without standart fibonacci Percentages!. I have thought about that so many times... Why we could see it only after the crash of cryptomania have made by the Media. I did Know the Effect of Media made crazy manner but what have i not noticed was the forgotten slowly increasing real Value (based on Minings costs) of BTC so underestimated that this market called as speculative markets(and the last one is actually well matched by a standard bubble effect!) But what made the BTC so strong all the time to hold on? Then i have noticed the 3rd Factor the forgotten real Value! That show his self sometimes as trendline, or technical support but just in periods that we dont have any hype and could be almost defined as average of the mining costs + about 1K! And as you see this line have changed laterly increasingly the angle that showed the accumulating effects of the expanding transactions defined by satoshi-System + rising interest for mining in publicity! Jeah!you Know what Mr. Mcafee knows and made it sure about that! ( So sure to betting his Manhood on it)! Yes! now that the secret is finally revealed take a look at my chart one more time and trying to recall some of the math-stuff in school.can you see the pattern? The real Btc-chart of value is actually disclosed and showed his real pattern (also accelerated by the increasingly mining difficulty=see the Angles) to after the ending of the public hype amid to crashing from his bubble(by comparison between the speculative with cost-based price!! IF you liked it plz 0.00% like & use with copyright!! Light be with You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Dr_shibeh
3
revealed:what MCafee knows and don't says!!just costs u a like!Hi, Friends I wish that u had a good time (specially the holders that see a sunshine after a dark night!). Right onto the real deal! Do You remember my first published text on Monday 19.03.2018 about real value of BTC and the bubble! I have said a clue that was forgotten by many charters and analysers! the BTC is not a paper like money, have a real value(like gold that word of mining and miner referring on that!) based on a real costs like miner devices, energy, electricity ...etc. Differing to many of coins (like XRP) the Satoshi's algorithm is defined a unique way that let the mining process to become always more and more complicated and therefor more expensive(yes but reminding that our technology will make us better and more powerful mining devices but Bitcoins price getting that hype in the last 6 Months of 2016 had a so intensive that made it for our technology's evolution untouchable to set his new acceleration's rate so high like Btc). That caused this acceleration phenomen (i call it or actually define it with this word!) that made the mining process to be always more expensive. On the other hand the hype of public attention (cryptomania! the media power!) could be so strong that this time the increasingly mining process had no chance to catch it and being counted in comparison to the Cryptomania caused a more accelerated price rocketing not just increasingly with acceleration even much more like Hi, Friends I wish that u had a good time (specially the holders that see a sunshine after a dark night!). Right onto the real deal! Do You remember my first published text on Monday 19.03.2018? (if not ). I have said a clue that was forgotten by many charters and analysers! the BTC is not a paper like money, have a real value(like gold that word of mining and miner referring on that!) based on a real costs like miner devices, energy, electricity ...etc. Differing to many of coins (like XRP) the Satoshi's algorithm is defined a unique way that let the mining process to become always more and more complicated and therefor more expensive(yes but reminding that our technology will make us better and more powerful mining devices but Bitcoins price getting that hype in the last 6 Months of 2016 had a so intensive that made it for our technology's evolution untouchable to set his new acceleration's rate so high like Btc). That caused this acceleration phenomen (i call it or actually define it with this word!) that made the mining process to be always more expensive. On the other hand the hype of public attention (cryptomania! the media power!) could be so strong that this time the increasingly mining process had no chance to catch it and being counted in comparison to the Cryptomania . (actually it was not so irrational like his name and mean to buy a good more expensive as the real cost/price ratio. Why it could becoming more expensive tomorrow! in reality try to buying the future!) It made it not just an accelerated increasing model of price-charts, even far away much speedier what i call it as "logarithmic pattern"like what we have learned and see it just in mathematics but not in a real market even high-tech stocks . Jeah!you Know what Mr. Mcafee knows and made it sure about that! ( So sure to betting his Manhood on it)! Yes! now that the secret is finally revealed take a look at my chart one more time and trying to recall some of the math-stuff in school.can you see the pattern? The real Btc-chart of value is actually disclosed and showed his real pattern (also accelerated by the increasingly mining difficulty=see the Angles) to after the ending of the public hype amid to crashing from his bubble(by comparison between the speculative with cost-based price!! IF you liked it plz like & use with copyright!! Light be with You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Dr_shibeh
1
BTC possible short - First target 8600 Hey, this is my first idea ever published. Please note that I might be completely wrong, and that It's made just to add some idea on where the price might go. I will be really glad for any comment reagrding anything wrongly interpreted in my idea since it's my first idea since I started learning TA. Right now there are two scenarios that I can see happening in the near future. Either we will break above 11500 level, which would indicate further growth to price point of 16222 measured from the bottom of the inverse H&S to the neckline projected upwards from the neckline. So far I see this scenario less likely due to the fact that volume should expand on the break from the inverse head and shoulders. It is still a possibility though, and it should be taken into consideration. In this case I would recommend to enter the market on the retracement move of the breakout from the inverse H&S since you want to avoid getting caught up in the failed break out. If the inverse H&S doesn't play out, we can see a big drop to the first support level of approximatelly 8600. From there I would expect it to form a possible falling wedge that could bottom close to the recent 6000 low. Falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern, and sucessful break above could as well mean the end of the correction. As you can see from the RSI, we broke already broke above bearish 28day RSI. If this scenarion would be about to happen, I would enter the market on the retracement move of the break out of the possible falling wedge confirmed both by RSI, and by completion of the pattern. Hope it made sense, and I hope that I didn't scare you off with my poor english, since I'm not originally from the english speaking country. Enjoy, leave a comment and have a great day!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoFlows
BCHUSD What a BlastBCHUSD A dream impulse wave has seen BCH rip through the structure to its left on chart in a 2 hour blast last night - from 1580 to 2100, up 33% in just over 120 minutes. And people think FB's cool! This does in 2 hours what FB does in a year. It is indeed a strange and beautiful world, especially crypto world. It's now consolidating, perhaps in the early stages of a flag formation...likely to bounce from each of the blue support lines, at 1766 for bounce to 1849 where it should come off again, ideally to 1700 where it should bounce once more back to 1766 and come off one last time, maybe right back too 1638 start point of this entire recent blast - where, after rinsing out every stale bull still left long from higher levels, it will be ready to go again. It's a game. Recognise it for what it is. And play it.
B
by sumastardon
1
Litecoin: LTCUSD Back on the Highs with BitcoinLITECOIN: LTCUSD Wave Power and Chart Porn This was a short on Wednesday with a stop at 80, only flipping back from negative to positive on the interesting but hair- raising retest of the downtrend line shown on the chart. Once broken above the downtrend, that retest...look at it... it flew high and then came all the way back to the same line, used it as support/little double bottom there too and off it flies ...then a continuation pattern and then this incredible impulse wave yesterday, so strong and true. Really technically beautiful. No Alt trends like Litecoin does and so it's a favorite trade for trend followers, evidently, as the chart shows. One that you could tear out and return to and drool over: full-on chart-porn. Now it's back testing its highs with the old dynamic support now likely to act as near term resistance above - Bitcoin is testing the old high too now - so either take profits at 102 and re-enter long again if 104 is broken on upside with stops 3 points lower at most, or run a stop under 99. If Bitcoin comes off from here in near term Litecoin will too. First support in this event will be 95 with more significant support at 92. Look to buy from here again if it comes off from the highs.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
EURGBP LONG ENTRY LEVELS More chances for a bullish continuation, what is confirmed by a recent multi time frame price action research, and important level zones NEXT WEBINAR (LONDON TIME): 15/07/16 19:00 www.youtube.com Reviewing the most recent PA 1&2 period patterns we have: 1D Bearish Pattern 1M Bullish Pattern Knowing the patterns of a higher time frame is very important. Sometimes they can conflict one to another, but it gives us the information of the possible correctional moves, or a start of a new direction, so basically, every time when conflict exists, you must examine a chart whether it is a correctional pattern appearence or a new direction, shall you close the existing trade or open the new one, does it give you a new oportunity or shall you wait, and also rememver, that when the monthly pattern appeared, it means that it is valid till the current month is closed, as by the price action rules, the pattern is clear only at the close of the candle or a bar. We also have to review the range of the closed period comparing to the previous set of periods, hours, weeks, months, etc... Here, I'm showing you a range compared to 6 and 3 previous periods, NR means Narrow range, WR means wide range, the number displays a total periods reviewed, if the NR is displayed, high possibility of the range expansion, in WR case it can be opposite. at the moment here's the situation: 1H WR4 1H WR7 4H WR4 4H WR7 1D WR4 1D WR7 1M WR4 1M WR7 Session (current session only) levels: r3 0.84876 r2 0.84528 r1 0.84179 p 0.83501 s1 0.83152 s2 0.82474 s3 0.82125 I really hope that sharing of my routine with you, will help you in your trading. Also I really hope that in respect to my hard work, you will take time to use the data I share, you will put the levels on a chart, and will apply it to your trading. Sincerely Arturs Jermolickis arthur@marenno.com skype: marenno.business A short - government required disclaimer: I’m not providing any advice, and I do not guarantee any profit. What you see here is only a share of my view of the market.
Long
by Marenno