Whichway
EURUSD - Time for a Trendline Break - But which way?Hi Traders!
The market is in a Downtrend.
*This Analysis gives you an idea of what the market is doing now from our point of view.
You have to decide by your own analysis, which way the market will go...
or just follow the price ;-)*
*Leave a comment about your idea!*
As you can see we here have two major Trendlines, which are frequently respected.
The first one is coming from above (descending) and it marks many lower Highs.
The second one is also descending and it marks the lower Lows.
The second Trendline is less tilted than the first one.
As the price almost reached the weekly Support,
it is possible to move up as a Support Bounce.
However, if we consider the daily chart, it looks like a double Top.
If you follow this, than it should break the Support.
We recommend to confirm the Breakout with any strong confirmation to avoid Fake Outs.
Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
AAPL will move either up, down, or sideways.Looks very much down-trending...it could also range...it could also go up.
I see more argument for sideways/downward continuation.
I Bought A Put, But It Was Reluctantly...SPY Came back up to the point that has served as resistance for the past 19 trading days, and my trading strategy dictates that I should enter short here and play for the reversal, with a tight stop loss just above the trend line resistance. I followed my plan, but if I'm being honest, it was hard to do so. This looked and felt like a breakout day, and the RSI did break out of its resistance line. I halfway expect to see a gap up big green candle tomorrow, but I am sticking with my plan. Everything I know about trading tells me this is an obvious bear flag consolidation pattern, and that we should break out below and continue down. Problem is, most times when EVERYbody is totally bearish on the market and seeing the same pattern over and over, that's when traders get lulled to sleep and awoken by a massive move in the opposite direction. So, while I did buy a put today due to my trading strategy, there is just no way I would "advise" anyone to follow that lead. Instead I would advise a "wait and see" strategy and react to price action accordingly. Break out above, likely long at least until old support line around 300-301 area for next test. If rejected again, short again. Just feels too redundant and obvious to be right. If you bought a call option or went long today, I would not have a bad word to say about it, put it that way. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Apple Dark Cloud Cover CandlesAAPL Today completed formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. See attached diagrams for explanations. According to some research, this pattern results in a down day the next day 60% of the time, while up the next day only 40% of the time. Obviously there is no sure bet in this game, but I'll take 60/40 odds over 50/50 every day of my life. In any event, happy hunting and GLTA! www.feedroll.com tutorials.topstockresearch.com
$SPY/$QQQ Bullish Harami PrintsThe ETF's tracking the markets printed some true Bullish Harami patterns for the past two days, which according to some research says that the next days move is up 53% of the time, while the next day is down 47% of the time. See attached figure. If the pattern presents in a downtrend, the smaller the body of the second candle means the stronger the signal. This is a pretty small candle compared to the first, and it would not be surprising at all to see tomorrow be a green day in SPY. However, as noted in linked post, we remain range bound by the weekly Long Legged Doji to between 294 and 282 areas. Until those are broken, expect to see this back and forth. Trade accordingly. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! www.feedroll.com
This Changes Things...Kinda...AMZN printed a Dragonfly Doji today, which is usually a good sign of a reversal when seen at the bottom of a downtrend. See attached image below. So, what do we do now? Well, here's my take. AMZN is a buy above the top wick of the dragonfly, so over 1770 tomorrow. However, the tilt in AMZN remains bearish until 1836 is broken and closed above with conviction. Until that point happens, we may remain within the channel being formed now. Two ways to play that--One is to short at top of channel, go long at the bottom and try to make money on the whiplash price action between the support and resistance. The second is to wait for break below the support or above the resistance to enter. There is an argument to be made for either, that's a personal trading style decision. Personally, still in my Aug 30 put, still in the black just a bit. Now I will decide tomorrow based on price action. Above 1770 I will go long via Sept 06 call options, probably around a 2000 call or so. If it stays below 1770 I think I may roll my put option to the Sept 06 put to gain some time for this consolidation pattern to complete. The Stochastic did not react in any way whatsover to the move today, and combine that with the already bearish tilt of the consolidation/continuation pattern we appear to be in, and my money still thinks down is the more productive bet. But I have been wrong once before, I think it was in 1998 or so...lmfao Honestly, best wishes whatever you decide, there is plenty of money to be made both ways here. I still like short medium term, possible bounce short term. Will reevaluate after tomorrows action, see what the price movement is trying to tell us. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! slideplayer.com
ETHBTC Potential Paths to moon or doomPrice only goes up or down, but the paths it can take are infinite.
To help fight my biases I take a number of potential paths including important zones where price is more likely to stall or bounce.
With ETHBTC the over-all shape since the lows is that of a large flag which could lead to an impulsive break up. The move resulting from this would be powerful, but we don't know when it may happen, so here are some potential scenarios.
A bear break has a similar potential to be a large move.
As always risk management is key.
I was almost thinking I was completely wrong ... Seems we are right back where we started and asking the same question ... Will BTC break the overall downtrend of resistance (shown in green)? Does not appear that we are out of the woods yet, and a huge factor whether BTC will rise is potentially determined in the next couple weeks. Many say there is definitely belief that we go to new highs this year. But I have to see proof.
Check my earlier posts for my earlier positions and thoughts on BTC. I am still anticipating a bigger drop to possibly retest 6K. We still do not know if this is a new year or the backside crash of 2013-2014. Are we in absolutely new territory or we now have a cycle of history with the first block chain ever?
Just stop here, if you are strictly a pro-crypto trader.
Message to Jo(e) Blow:
So, I am really looking to this weekend. Feb 24. heading toward a retest of 6k. (However as I am writing this, BTC is falling through a support line.) The bull spirit is getting crushed. A heartfelt apology to all. It's sickening. I like to look at the big picture. And the big picture is telling me that investments for this year are going to be hard to count on anything long term. That's not in all sectors, but safe to say most. This is a war between smart money and regular folks who invest, have retirement plans and dollar based products, etc. In short, the stock market may collapse this year. I like to think of crypto as the new Blackjack table (I don't gamble - maybe a better game) in the huge casino. Just know that I think a great wealth transfer is potentially at play this year. Please use caution in your strategy in all investments. This year may be heading for a long year of declines and trading downward. I may also go so far as to say the media hype may be looking for FOMO'ers to get in on the action when it may be over and no testing 18K this year. In closing, I will say that blockchain is the future of currency. And somewhere among this mess will be a few - next largest companies in the world or perhaps labeled as the new largest banks along with a new monetary system. Of course this is all completely an opinion of grand delusion and not investment advice.
Bitcoin. Bear or Bull?
The question everyone is asking, is it inverted or normal H&S? The lack of volume is not impressive at the moment. I originally was seeing an inverted H&S. But it also can be a normal H&S. However, volume is pretty low for a bull rally. But historically, it could fit. Will the Asian markets see inverted or normal. I promise this is not, some cheap shot at asians. But, it could honestly go both ways ...
Place your bets, I believe the smart money is actually letting the common man decide! Maybe.
Let me know in the comments section below what you think and why.
