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XAUUSD (Gold)- Price Analysis Last week we saw that price didn't trend hard in one direction but with all the major fundamental events that occurred price action ranged between 1265 area and 1280 with a brief stop hunt at 1285 to clear the board of sellers and grab liquidity for the push down at NFP last Friday. Even negative NFP numbers were not enough to push Gold prices higher, with a future rate hike for USD in December already being priced in Gold moved lower. This week fundamentals are a lot lighter with just a few central banker speeches (could see price swings during these speeches) and a USD bank holiday on Friday for Veterans day. This could possibly give us some trending price action with continued movement in the current direction. Contracts look like they have been accumulated during last week so possibly we could see a breakout of this range with the bias being to the downside. First target would be the 1260 area and a break of that could take it lower to 1250 support. If price breaks the 1280 cleanly I would stop looking for sells. The two scenarios that price could play would be (A) go for a retest of the broken support just above 1270 then down to the major support at 1260 or (B) a continued move down to 1260 zone, accumulate contracts and then bounce or break. Watch the correlations with other USD pairs to determine the strength of the dollar.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nick.trader4
USD/JPY- Further Price Analysis Last week we saw price return to the major resistance zone after some rejection late in previous weeks and early last week. Price returned to this zone after accumulation of contracts throughout the week within the range of 113.700- 114.250 and then a push to resistance on the release of negative NFP data (114.250). After the push to resistance there has been a slight pullback off this zone suggesting the strength of this zone and the contracts it will need to break it and push further. This week there is a good possibility to see further upside based on price action and current fundamentals. The two scenarios how I can see price play out would be (A) a continued retracement to a supply zone or TL followed by accumulation of the resistance zone then a push to the extended upside target zone making a higher high continuing the uptrend. The other option is (B) a strong break of the resistance and a push into the target zone followed by a rejection and a retest of the broken resistance (now support @ 114.250). This seems less likely as it looks like we need some good strength to break this zone as price hasn't traded higher than that since a rate hike back in March 2017. Interestingly enough, fundamentals are strong for the dollar right now as a future rate hike that it almost certain to occur in December is being priced in. Even negative NFP data wasn't enough to bring prices lower. Would be interesting to see price return to the same area for the same type of fundamental event. Fundamentals for this week include some central banker speeches (USD, JPY, EUR) and a USD bank holiday on Nov 10.
by nick.trader4
XAUUSD (GOLD) MARKET ANALYSIS- Major Fundamentals This Week Last week we saw bearish price action and market structure occur. Price ranged between 1270-1280 at the beginning of the week before breaking 1270 and then pulling back sharply before the end of the week. My long term analysis from last week attached below shows price starting to continue a downtrend. This week could be somewhat unpredictable with the amount of fundamental events on the calendar to end this month and start November, we could see some volatility. The major areas for this week to watch for me would be 1280 as resistance and 1260 as a major support which was made off a bounce from last month NFP results if I'm not mistaken. So to determine further price direction a clean break of one of these areas would be confirmation. Surely its possible for it to happen this week as there are many high impact fundamental events including interest rate decisions by the FED (USD) and BoJ (JPY) which will have a huge impact on Gold. Also its NFP on Nov 3 which again will rock the USD and then there are other major events for CAD, GBP and AUD. Trade Safe!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nick.trader4
USD/JPY On the MoveLast week we saw it was very bullish for UJ. The first week in about a month where we saw good trending price action. Previous weeks were filled with a lot of consolidation and ranging price action. On Friday price broke a major level around 113.500 and the last time we saw price rise above these levels was in July. This week we could see a continuation of this uptrend after some consolidation or a slight pullback as we have already had a lot of consolidation over the past month now is the time where a trend can continue. The most logical upside target would be about 100 standard pips away at 114.500. What will happen at this level is uncertain whether we keep going up or make what would look to be a triple top at this level. However if we do continue up 115 would be next. Fundamentals/News this week looks light, some high impact news but nothing out of the ordinary for USD. More importantly the focus would be on the geopolitical issues (Trump & NK could change the outlook for USD/GOLD fast.) and also Trump's new tax reform plan and the replacement for Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
by nick.trader4
USDJPY > Simple candlestick signals easy to recognizeEducation > Basic Candlestick Signals Chart > USDJPY > Non-Farm Payroll News Release > Friday, Oct. 6, 2017 - 8:30 A.M. Analysis in chart 1. Large body w/small wicks indicate strength 2. Larger the body w/smaller wicks indicate greater strength 3. Long wick w/body at opposite end of candle indicates shift in trend momentum 4. Wicks at both sides w/smaller body in middle indicates indecisiveness and both sides have equal strength 5. Larger wicks w/smaller body in middle indicates increase of indecisiveness * Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market. ** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK. Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
Education
by ALSM59
1
USD/JPY- Post FOMCUSD/JPY has been on a strong rally since breaking a major support a few weeks ago. Since then price has had a lot of bullish momentum helped by hawkish FOMC statements from the Fed and has risen quickly to a major daily resistance zone. Seeing how price reacted to this zone at the end of the week shown some rejection and a break in the minor support and TL. We then moved to a major support zone and started some consolidation. This week I would look for a retest of the new resistance and TL this could be a possible sell setup if we don't move past that zone. We have a lot of fresh zones created from the move up so these will fill up in time and we can use these for downtrend targets. Some consolidation is also a possibility due to the quick rise in prices over a short period of time. We can use the correlations with gold to get the best timing possible to get on a move which ever way it goes. Longer term fundamentally we could see a softer dollar due to rising geopolitical issues but the good news is that the Fed sounded fairly hawkish in its plans to continue to raise rates and balance fiscal policy.
by nick.trader4