TradeCityPro | WTI Analysis Fundamental and Technical Insights👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let’s step away from the crypto space and analyze West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
🌍 Fundamental Overview
Supply Dynamics: U.S. shale oil production and OPEC+ decisions are key drivers. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict or Iran-related sanctions, pose significant risks to global oil supply.
Demand Trends : Economic growth and seasonal fluctuations influence demand, but the rise of renewables signals a gradual reduction in reliance on crude oil.
Geopolitical Factors : The Middle East, a hub for major oil producers, heavily impacts markets. Regional conflicts often lead to price spikes due to supply concerns.
Macroeconomic Trends : A stronger U.S. dollar and rising interest rates suppress oil demand, while inflationary pressures support higher prices.
Recent instability in the Middle East has heightened market volatility, underlining WTI's sensitivity to geopolitical events.
🕒 4-Hour Time Frame
In the 4-hour timeframe, WTI has been trending downward, nearing a key daily support level at 66.938, which has held multiple times and may attract buyers, shifting momentum.
📈 Long Position Trigger
wait for the 4-hour trendline breakout and trigger confirmations, such as RSI exceeding 73.48. The current 4-hour candle breaking the trendline could signal entry.
📉 Short Position Trigger
if the candle is rejected and turns red with strong bearish momentum or breaks below 66.938, it could trigger a sell opportunity in the market.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
WTI-OIL
WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence sending a strong buy signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) stopped yesterday's rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is now on a small pull-back. Technically that is the Resistance level it needs to break if it wants to break-out aggressively towards the long-term Resistance Zone.
There are high probabilities of doing so, as the 4H RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. In fact, it is the exact same formation as the October 01 Low that rebounded aggressively above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we are bullish on this one, targeting $76.00 (the 0.786 Fib currently).
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WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL
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easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel.
The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal.
Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market.
In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines.
TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran.
The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
WTI, back at major order block support -- BOUNCE expectedWTI is currently sitting at below 0.5 FIB level on a weekly data -- a key area where most buyers converge.
$65-70 area has been quite a solid order block support. It has been tested many times and oil keeps bouncing up from this range.
A bounce is expected from current price range. Accumulation has notably started increasing at the present levels.
Spotted at 69.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
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RELATED NEWS: Reuters
Oil prices settle more than 3% higher after China rate cut
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed over 3% on Tuesday on hopes for growing fuel demand after China's central bank lowered a short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months, boosting crude prices after steep losses the previous session.
The rate cut is aimed at adding momentum to a hesitant post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and biggest crude importer.
Brent crude futures settled up $2.45, or 3.4%, to $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.30, or 3.4%, at $69.42 a barrel.
WTI CRUDE OIL Final Resistance test before $77.50WTI Crude Oil hit today the 7 day Falling Resistance. A break above it will be bullish as that has been the case on 2 similar patterns previously.
We are ahead of a Golden Cross (1h), which on the 2 previous patterns, has confirmed the uptrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the Falling Resistance breaks.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is printing a pattern similar to the September run.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Turned bullish again after the 1D MA50 rebound.WTI Crude Oil turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.281, MACD = 0.570, ADX = 33.404) as even though it breached through the 1D MA50 yesterday intraday, it managed to close the day over it and extend today with a green candle. It was not ideal that the rejection on Tuesday took place on the 1D MA200 but yesterday's 1D MA50 rebound has restored the bullish sentiment. We turn bullish again (TP = 80.00) all the way to the one year LH trendline and the 0.786 Fib.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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WTI OIL 1D MA200 rejection giving the perfect sell.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 76.00 Target as presented on our September 24 idea (see chart below):
Today even though the price breached the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it has since been forcefully rejected. This is not a surprise as all medium-term rallies coming off a Support level bounce since June 2023, were all rejected on the short-term on the 1D MA200. The July 13 2023 one got rejected back to its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the January 29 2024 one dived lower to the 0.618 Fib.
The 1D RSI (red circles) indicates that we are currently exactly on such a rejection sequence. As a result, we turn bearish on WTI, expecting at least a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breach at 72.50, which is a Target marginally below the 0.382 Fib.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Last short term buy.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.729, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 25.961) as it pulled back to the 4H MA50 intra day. The fact that it held, suggests that it remains the short term support of this uptrend that is targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 72.50) where so far we have had three straight rejections since August.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Intraday Bearish Confirmation
Update for our yesterday's setup on WTI Crude Oil.
The price successfully retested a broken structure.
Our intraday bearish confirmation is a breakout of a support line
of a bearish flag pattern on an hourly time frame.
The fall will continue now at least to 72.1
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Waiting for WTI rebound. H4 30.08.2024 Waiting for WTI rebound
Oil WTI has been flattening with pullbacks all week, which is exhausting. My top-up was knocked out together with the rest of the last buy. Although the total plus came out due to partial fixation. Now the price is back to the key support area, it went down to the buyers' zone 73.34-72.63 and near the specified 1/2 margin. There are no large volumes, which is confusing, but they can make a buyback. Therefore, you should look here for confirmations on your strategy. If pushed the zones below, then the price will go to 71.
WTI USOIL 12H - Oil Edges Down on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures Dip Amid Geopolitical Concerns
WTI crude oil futures fell to $74.80 per barrel on Thursday, following a 2.8% increase in the previous session. Investors are concerned about potential retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, in response to recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Despite these tensions, Iran's president hinted at possible diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation during a call with France.
Oil Edges Down on Thursday
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish trend, the price should stabilize above $75.35, targeting $77.94 and potentially $79.49.
Bearish Scenario:
Stability below $75.35, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, could lead to a drop towards $73.90 and $72.80.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: $75.35
- Support Levels: $73.90, $72.80, $69.80
- Resistance Levels: $77.94, $79.49, $80.73
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to move between the support at $72.72 and the resistance at $77.95.
previous idea:
WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum.
With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
USOILOil analysis
Time frame 4 hours and 12 hours
Middle oil oil broke and stabilized its 12-hour trading range. Now it has formed a new 4-hour trading range, the supply and demand areas of which are clear in the picture. The price is expected to return to the limit of $80.7 and move towards the target of $84 by filling the FVG.
Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes?
WTI crude futures and Brent continue to recover from three-month lows. The rebound is potentially driven by expectations that OPEC+ will extend its output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year during its June 2 meeting.
Additional support for crude prices came from the start of the U.S. summer driving season and a weaker dollar.
Further data on the demand side will come from upcoming U.S. PCE to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. A softer-than-expected reading on the PCE could increase the possibility of interest rate cuts, and potentially enhance the demand for energy.
Deutsche Bank has maintained its Brent forecast at $83 per barrel for the second quarter and $88 for the second half of the year, assuming OPEC+ will sustain its current production policy on Sunday.
Should prices move above the $80 level, WTI could test the 50-day moving average just above $81.1. The RSI suggests there is still room for prices to rise before reaching the overbought zone. Conversely, if prices fall below the $78 range, they might stabilize around the $76 mark.
Let's see if it can climb back above the 78-dollar markEASYMARKETS:OILUSD
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 87.47.Dear Colleagues, at the moment the price has made a strong downward movement. I suppose that the price is in wave "4" and can continue its movement to the support area of 80.22, but I consider only long positions, because the price can make a reversal at once. I recommend to work with pending orders.
The nearest target is the resistance area at 87.47.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Oil looks to be repeating itself... Bullish fundamentals are potentially setting up 'higher-for-longer' oil prices.
I think we might see a retrace down to the trend-line area given how far we have extended. Although, in any case be ready to jump on a bullish move.
If we start creating downtrend structure then sentiment might have shifted, noting US / EURO growth rates / interest rates are also being looked at by institutions as key demand factors.
Falling to overlap support WTI (OIL) has just reacted off the resistance and could fall to overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Alternatively, if price breaks above the pivot, it could continue to rise to the next resistance level
Pivot: 82.33
Support: 80.91
Resistance: 83.54
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CRUDE OIL Broke The Rising Support! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL was trading along
The rising support but now we
Are seeing a bearish breakout
And the breakout is confirmed
So we will be expecting a
Further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to 100% Fibo lvl 81.85. Dear colleagues, earlier I wanted to write a forecast with a deep correction, but after reviewing the data I suppose that the price will go higher. I assume that it will be wave 2, but for now I expect a small correction to the support area of 78.88. Then I expect an upward movement to the area of 100% Fibonacci extension at 81.85.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!