Technical analysis update: WTI oil (22nd July 2021)On 20th July 2021 USOIL halted its decline at 65.11 USD per barrel. Price traveled back to its short term simple moving average. Simultaneously, RSI reversed above 30 points, not piercing oversold line. This phenomenon tends to accompany strong trends of higher degree. In regards to oil it suggests that bullish trend of higher degree remains intact. MACD is flattening out. We think there are high odds of that correction ceased already. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Developements from 20th July 2021:
Here we announced that OPEC deal would be bullish in medium and long term for price of oil. This is mainly due to clearing out uncertainties about future supply boosts to the market. We also hinted at possibility of WTI oil going towards 65 USD under selling pressure. We also stated that any price below 67 USD per barrel would be attractive entry point for taking long position.
Prior developements from 5th July 2021:
Here we stated that we remain bullish despite increasing odds of correction. We set medium price target to 77.50 USD and long term price target to 80 USD.
More prior developements from 1st June 2021:
Here we correctly predicted move above resistance and subsequently reached our short term price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI-OIL
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (16th July 2021)WTI oil continues to experience selling pressure due to the stalemate within OPEC deal . However, anonymous sources hinted that some form of agreement has been struck between Saudi Arabia and UAE. If true, this would be bullish developement for price of oil. Before the selloff started we stated that selling would cease around 70 USD per barrel. Then price found its support at 70.79 USD and reversed back to the upside. Currently price fluctuates between 70 USD and 77 USD. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all bearish. However, RSI shows first signs of flattening. Despite bearish technicals we remain bullish. We expect OPEC to reach agreement and view this as catalyst for move up. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Thoughts from 5th July 2021:
Here we warned investors about overbought condition in WTI oil. We also stated that odds of correction are increasingly growing.
More thoughts from 1st June 2021:
Here we predicted move above resistance and reached our price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI: Weekly Forecast 18th July 2021WTI has the biggest drop in 4 months as selloff persisted on a overheated oil prices.
However, the price managed to close right above the rising channel, as well as the demand zone at 70.
This week, we will attempt to long again at the current level.
Should the support fails, we expect the price to retest he previous high at 66.
Technical analysis update: USOIL (5th July 2021)USOIL keeps rising. Technicals are reaching overbought zone and this could potentionally lead to shortlived correction. Despite increasing odds of correction we remain bullish. We actually think that if correction would to occur it could present itself with attractive entries for long side of the trade. Our new medium price target for USOIL to 77.50 USD per barrel. Our long term price target is 80 USD per barrel.
Here are prior thoughts from 22nd June 2021:
Here we did set price target of 75 USD which was reached few days later.
More thoughts from 9th June 2021:
Here we did set price target of 72.50 USD per barrel. Target was reached few days later.
More prior developements from 1st June 2021:
Here we did set price target of 70 USD per barrel. This target was reached few days later.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Long for 77 per barrelTrend trading the constant rallying in West Texas oil, indicators showing a long opportunity with the S/L and T/P based on x1.25 the 14-day ATR. If oil reaches 77 per barrel, this may be the first time in years that it has reached such a level.
Fundamentals to consider:
- Economies are opening back up, therefore driving demand for oil, up, due to the low production from OPEC prices may continue to rise.
- OPEC meeting on Monday, until the meeting is over is when an entry can be considered. In the event, anything is said that may play with the price.
USDWTI H4 - Long SetupUSDWTI H4 -
Extending higher with clear fresh highs set. Looking for a pullback to repeat what we have marked up and executed over the last few weeks, demand is still there, price is still on the rally. Simply looking to buy the dips effectively.
Hard to predict TP targets, typically we use the previous breakout high, but it's not always quantifiable, and with assets as volatile as WTI. It's sometimes best to forecast and be a bit more conservative with stoploss' (use larger stops).
WTI OIL Channel Up rejection shows strong pull-back nextPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up. This will be confirmed once the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
Target: The 4H MA200 initially (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in extension where yuo can shift to a buy.
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WTI Oil An interesting fractalWhat do you think of this fractal on the 1W time-frame? The price action since mid 2020 resembles that from early 2017 to mid-late 2018. During that time, WTI started off a Channel Down (blue), then as it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) it rose aggressive and after it broke above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as well, it entered a a 9 month Channel Up (green) that eventually led to the October - December 2018 collapse. During that Channel Up, a 1W Golden Cross got formed.
Since mid 2020, the price seems to be following the 2017/2018 sequence. We are currently inside the (green) Channel Up. Even the RSI and MACD are printing similar sequences. Will another 1W Golden Cross emerge that will lead the Channel Up to a blow-off top? What do you think?
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (4th June 2021)Technicals such as RSI, MACD and Stochastics are all bullish. In addition to that ADX shows signs of awakening. Price continues to rise and on 3rd June USOIL’s price reached 69.37 USD. We think there is high probabillity that USOIL will reach our short term price target of 70 USD within next week. Because of that we would like to update our medium term price target for USOIL to 72.50 USD.
Our thought from 1st June 2021:
Here we see that previous resistance was taken out. Prior resistance level currently acts as support.
Our thought from 24th May 2021:
Here are some prior developements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Structure Analysis & Next Goal 🛢️
Fundamentals keep pumping Crude Oil.
The price managed to violate a key weekly resistance cluster and close above that.
Now it looks like the market will go higher.
The next key resistance on my radar is 74.85 - 76.85 structure.
It is based on 6 years' market high.
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WTI ShortWe dont really post trade ideas as we are day traders and most of our trades are pretty quick, but since we have a little extra time right now we are sharing this WTI short.
We believe there are good to great indications that WTI could achieve a small reversal in its up trend and move closer to the 10 day EMA (purple)
We are in a strong uptrend, but we have formed a lower high and we do have a potential H&S setup here, so the odds of a short sell move have increased.
In anycase, the SL is always there to stop us :D
WTI OIL Is $100 a realistic price target?A lot of talk has been made lately around popular assets like Gold's strength, the selling on BTC and the weakness of the USD while few have been paying attention to WTI Crude Oil's long-term carts. WTI has silently broken above its Historic Lower Highs trend-line (that has been in effect since the July 2008 Market Top) and is on a sustainable trade above it. This key advancement may have very important implications on the long-term, as with the DXY on a continuous fall, it appears that after decades, we may finally see Higher Highs on Oil.
On top of that, last month, the 1W chart formed a Bullish Cross (BC) between the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line). Since 1995, we have had seven 1W MA50/100 Bullish Crosses and all but one delivered a Higher High. In the 4 most recent ones in particular, 3 times the price reached at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension counting from the previous bottom. The 1.5 Fib extension currently sits at 102.50.
Is this sustainable break-out from the Historic Lower Highs along with the 1W BC, good news for oil producers? Do you think $100 is realistic in the near future? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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WTI OIL Buy the 1D MA50 pull-backPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 1D MA50 or the RSI enters its Buy Zone. The entries have been consistent since March 23.
Target: 72.00 (around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
Previous WTI plan:
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Oil is going higher!Clear ascending triangle formed on the WEEKLY, oil will go to $80 in the coming weeks!!
Let's Sell Oil at Range TopOil rebounded and recovered losses from last week but is once again resisted at the top of the entire symmetrical triangle.
Commodity prices have been somewhat cooling off a little as China clamps down on hoarding of supply which could somewhat cool off the oil market for a short while.
Traders may consider selling at the range top now with very limited risk on the upside and a pretty good reward if it goes down even to the equilibrium level just below 64.
WTI Bullish Cypher WTI Bullish Cypher
TP1 66.16$
SL 65.13$
U.S. crude exports fell last week to around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), their lowest since October 2018, while crude inventories declined 0.4 million barrels versus an expected 2.8 million-barrel draw, according to weekly government data.
crude exports plunged on signs of a speedy economic recovery and upbeat forecasts for energy demand.
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 4H MA50 (blue) - 4H MA100 (green) range, which has been a Buy Zone before.
Target: 67.50 (just below the 2 month Resistance). With a little more risk you may pursue the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, depending on where the price bottoms now.
Most recent WTI signals:
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