WTI Oil: Bullish break out confirmed. Buy opportunity.The price broke the November low (49.35) and has entered into medium term bullish territory looking for an extension on the current 4H Channel Up (RSI = 71.469, MACD = 1.090, Highs/Lows = 1.1843, BBP = 2.7960). However the overbought levels (STOCHRSI, ADX, Williams, Ultimate Oscillator) can pull the price lower for a Higher Low, currently supported at 49.35. This bullish break-out has high probabilities to form an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on 1D (also entered bullish territory on RSI = 56.738, Highs/Lows = 3.2479), aiming to consolidate for the next 20 days within 49.35 - 54.485. We are taking this opportunity to go long on a more modest TP = 52.630, as the Higher High of the current channel.
After all as a previous long term analysis shows (see below), December's low was on the 42.005 1M (monthly) support giving WTI oil high chances of a sustainable rebound:
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WTI-OIL
WTI Oil: Will the monthly support hold this time?Oil tested this week the first 1M (monthly) Support at 42.005 which has so far stayed intact. This level has supported the price successfully on 4 occasions since 2015. From a medium term Risk/ Reward perspective it is worth buying here, aiming at 54.600 which should act as the Resistance. If that level breaks, then the long term bullish reversal gets valid. Otherwise as we've seen last month (November) even a +10% rebound doesn't guarantee a bullish reversal on the long term. Therefore short term traders can look for scalping opportunities within 42.150 - 46.450.
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CRUDE oil. Possible Rally coming?WTI Crude oil looks to give out a reversal. Too much resistance ahead. 40 is the ultimate low point if things doing turn bullish geo politically. but i am all in for a rally back towards 76$ from this point. However it can fall to 42/40 in worst case scenario but upside is too big to miss from here.
UKOIL: "Buyers retreats !"Hi, traiders!!!
Buyers under pressure and they haven't broken sell-side...So, and we are joining to sell-side, who are much more strong now.
My trade recommendation for this week:
SELL
Price - 61.55$
S\L - 62.40$
T\P - 51$ (56.15$ - partial profit taking)
To your success!!!
The end of Oil as we know it: Chapter 2=> Firstly, well done to all those who managed to make their slice of the pie on our previous Oil trade. A monster move with our stops holding by crumbs before an almost -40% move to the downside.
=> See attached for those wanting to read in detail the macro and fundamental rationale behind the move.
=> For this latest idea here we are tracking two things; either a feeble bounce into next year with profit taking for short or a continuation of the bleeding and unlocking of the $40 handle.
ESV on the 13 TD Countdown Exhaustion SignalESV extending its decline beyond the Brent move, opening a divergence. Gap should fill.
It's also close to previous major bottoms.
Sentiment on extreme low.
Demark indicators pointing for reversal.
Target 6.12
Stop 4
WTI (CRUDEOIL) – Finally bombed…Hello everyone,
the count is gone and I was not on the right side. So good so far, but I do not give up reading the chart and share my ideas here. So, there is another count in the chart…
I think, that the whole structure since the low in Feb 2016 at 26$ is corrective, because WTI has destroyed the impulsive count yesterday. In 2016 I felt not good, because the structure of the first movements up didn’t look impulsive rather corrective, but WTI was starting to new highs, so I changed my opinion. That eventually was wrong!
Superordinate I now see a subordinate ABC-correction-pattern, which will lead us down to under 26$! Yes, under 26$. It may sound sick, but this is absolutely possible!
And yes, there is a chance for new highs – absolutely. We should keep an eye on the structure of the movement up, which started today. I think this will be only a corrective wave 2 up, which I will use for a short-entry, if my actual count is right. The blue circle in the chart may be the sore point form where we have to make a decision: up for a final uptrend, or down for a massive downfall.
Don’t hesitate to contact me, if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care
tgo
LONG UGA @ $28.50 for Gasoline Futures bounce from $1.64Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) likely counter trend bounce here off 200weekSMA support at $1.66 to reclaim long-term moving average support of 50monthSMA at $1.70, then rally to test 100weekSMA resistance at $1.80.
Technical Analysis:
- Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) now testing long-term support of 200weekSMA at $1.66.
- $1.66 also strong price support from Feb 2018 for potential double bottom pattern
- Daily & Weekly RSI extremely oversold
- Daily MACD record lows
- 50monthSMA long-term support sitting at $1.70 to continue uptrend from 2016 lows
- Potential bottom hammer candle on hourly chart today at $1.66
Fundamental Analysis:
Over recent weeks, we have seen an almost perfect bearish storm in the Crude Oil market that sent the price of futures from a high of $76 to low of $61, a decline of about 19% in less than one month. Rising production, increasing inventories, a strong dollar, concerns over trade, and the realization that the sanctions on Iran include some exceptions, all led the price of the energy commodity lower in a dramatic corrective move. These factors have had a greater impact on its bi-product Gasoline, which is also undergoing a seasonal bearish period during the winter months. However, we feel this move has been overextended to the downside as there are still 3 fundamental reasons why oil is close to low and could spark a counter trend rally in Gasoline.
- Turmoil in the Middle East could result in a decrease in production and rapid price increase
- OPEC expected to cut production at their bi-annual meeting Dec. 6th
- Pullback of USD from highs due to US election results could relieve some of the bearish weight on commodity prices
- Demand for the energy commodity remains strong with increasing population and rising heating oil cracks