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WTI-OIL

OPEC cuts backfire as shale firms thwart rebalance goalsThe future of OPEC's output cut deal will be determined at a meeting in November, said the Oil minister of Kuwait. This news was a signal that members of the cartel may revise quotas for production earlier than expected. In May, the members of the organization decided to extend the agreement for another nine months, until March 2018, but pressure from the shale producers may force OPEC to re-join the price fight. So far, the cartel is responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreements, which by the way, were taken fairly tepid. So in Iraq, production decreased by only 28% from the proposed quota, while in other countries the fulfillment of obligations fell to 75%. The outcome of a technical meeting of OPEC in St. Petersburg was the introduction of quota for Nigeria at 1.8M barrels. The country has not yet reached this limit. Both good and bad implications foroil market sentiments had the news that decision of the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton to sell shale business in the US. It should be noted that a number of shareholders of the concern, such as Elliott Management Corp. And Tribeca Investment Partners repeatedly called on the leadership to take such a step, which could be dictated by the increased risks in the future for this industry. Probably the company decided to protect itself in advance from the difficulties of fighting for a market share with OPEC producers, foreseeing a limited potential for growth. This version is very plausible, given that the last fiscal year the concern ended up with a profit of $5.89 billion. Today, oil prices continue to retrace, although less pronounced than on Monday. Reports API and EIA on Wednesday likely will not be able to realize their capabilities of market catalysts, given the decline in US inventories due to seasonal increased fuel consumption. On Friday, an assessment of the prospects for global growth by the heads of the Central Bank at the symposium in Jackson Hole may be reflected in oil quotations, as the supply side dilemma forced participants to pay attention to the sentiments on demand side. Economic expectations in the euro area have deteriorated slightly, the ZEW poll showed. The index fell from 17.5 to 10 points in August, the average forecast was 15.0 points. The US currency recoups after a massive sell-off on Monday, but futures on the federal funds rate continue to show pessimism in anticipation of Yellen's peaceful remarks on Friday. However, given the overheating of the US stock market, strong consumer sentiment and demographic changes hindering inflation (which is beyond the control of the Fed), the regulator's head will probably indicate that monetary policy will be conducted according to the planned rate. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill Market Analyst
TVC:USOILShort
by Tickmill
1
WTI Short OpportunityWhen the market bounced from the uptrend line, we could expect an upward movement to the up border of a price channel. Now price is in a possible reversal zone formed by the downtrend line, 50.00 resistance level and the up border of the channel. It's short opportunity. When we get a confimed reversal signal, we'll have to open short trades. Stop orders for these trades must be placed above the local swing high and the downtrend line. Profit target should be at 47.00 level. A reversal signal will be confirmed when we see a bearish candle or a reversal candlestick pattern near the downtrend line and RSI reversal in the overbought zone.
FX:USOILShort
by DLavrov
4
WTI: a bit higher before fallingWTI is going to set higher and fulfill a lower top in the long term chart. The momentum is going to cross below the zero level. Investors are doubting and the potential upside for the Bollinger Band indicator is null. The main indicator continues its declining path and suggests that a trend reversal is unrealistic. After completing the ABC Wave of the Elliot Wave, the oil prices can explore lower levels. The start of a deeper correction to maximum 39 - 40 dollars can be confirmed by falling trough the uptrend in the momentum of Chaikin. After hitting the 39-40 dollar range, the price can recover to maximum 45 dollars and close at a level of 42 dollars. On the long term I'm still very negative due to the oversupplies which oil companies and OPEC leaders are facing with. On the long term an oil price of 30 dollars is not unrealistic... - So: long on the short term and short on the long term !
TVC:USOILShort
by beursfanaat
WTI Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. But sometimes it can give trend reversal signals. We can see the downt trend and price reversal from 42.00 support level. We should expect that the market breaks the uptrend line and we'll see continuation of the down trend. But at the same time we must be ready if price breaks the downtrend line and it will be a signal for possible upward movement. We have to use pending orders for entry. Place sell-stop orders below the uptrend line and 44.00 support level. Stop orders for short trades must be higher than 46.50 level. Profit targets can be near 42.00, 41.00 and 39.00 support levels. Place buy-stop orders above 46.00 level with stop orders below 43.50 level. Profit target for long trades can be 48.00, 49.00 and 50.00 resistance levels.
FX:USOIL
by DLavrov
4
WTI Short OpportunityPrice reversed from Kijun line and moved lower. RSI confirmes price reversal. DMI confirms trend market conditions and allows trading. We have short opportunity. Sell below 44.50 level with stop above 47.50 local high. Profit target should be at 42.00 support level. Also pay attention to a bullish divergence formed by price and RSI. It can be a signal that the market can start upward movement. Trading volume for such short trades must be small and you should use trailing stop orders for quick exit if the market starts moving against your trades.
FX:USOILShort
by DLavrov
5
WTI Long OpportunityPrice broke Moving Averages with period 100 and we got a trend reversal signal. After that price moved up and reached 47.00 level. This level could stop and reverse the market. When price dropped from 47.00 level to Moving Average with period 50 we got a buy signal. We could open long trades higher than 46.00 level with stop below 44.50 level. If you did not open the long trades based on this buy signal, the next possible level for buying will be above 47.35. We should place buy-stop orders at this entry level and stop order below the local swing low. If price breaks 47.00 level, probably we'll have up movement to 50.00 level. This resistance level will be good for closing long trades in profit. As for indicators, MACD histogram confirms up movement and DMI allows open long trades.
FX:USOILLong
by DLavrov
11
WTI Bullish DivergencePrice diverges with MACD and RSI and it gives us bullish divergence. It's a reversal signal which is at the support level. We could open long trades, but DMI still confirms down movement. We should wait when ADX line starts falling. After that we'll have a good buy signal. Entry for long trades should be above 45.00 with stop below 44.00 level. Profit target is MA100 or we can use trailing stop for exit. P.S. If you think this information can be useful, please, like it and share. Also I will be glad to read your comments )
FX:USOILLong
by DLavrov
17