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WTI-OIL

MACRO VIEW: MORE EURUSD UPSIDE IS PROBABLEEURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485) Stop level is quarterly mean (at 1.1085) However one should watch out for oil trend. If WTI oil keeps falling, EUR is likely to follow (as happened back in 2014 autumn)
Long
by Killy_Mel
10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD SIGNALLING INFLATION EXPECTATIONSSince mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived the situation correctly, as the CPI inflation has fallen down to about 0% on y/y basis consequently, where it stands now. Recently, however, the 10-Year Yield started to diverge from WTI Oil price dynamics. As can be seen on our chart, the oil is trading laterally in the range of 57-62 USD per barrel since May 2015. The 10-Year Yield, on the other hand, actually started to move upwards since then, along the upper 1-st standard deviation from its quarterly (66-day) moving average. Our idea is that current upwards dynamics of the 10-Year Yield in relation to lateral WTI Oil reflects positive inflation expectations of market participants. It means that in the observable future the CPI and PPI inflation measures are likely to start bottoming out on y/y basis. If our proposition is true, it will be a positive development in terms of financial markets, as higher inflation expectations will offset the deflationary impact of current slow CPI and PPI inflation measures on the perceptions of market participants.
T
by Killy_Mel
WTI Near "Support" While Sentiment Still To The DownsideWTI has played out fundamentally, and the fundamentals (along with sentiment) still remain to the downside. Traders love to pick out bottoms by catching falling knifes, and they're usually cut up in the process. On a risk:reward basis, sure WTI may seem like it's at a nice area to buy. Yet, I think it is still to early. Crude will likely find support at the longer-dated support in the low $43's per barrel. While I would suggest opening fresh shorts without a pullback, it still may be early to gobble crude futures. The implications are still apparent. Supplies are still gluttonous, and shale companies are hurting. WBH Energy has become the first casualty of the oil warfare. I expect more to come, particularly Cheniere (idea to come). I have been short since $74, and I wouldn't suggest serious upside unless $53.5 is retaken.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
2
Timing the next buy opportunity on oil marketsI've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and $53/54 for Brent). To complement all those excellent charts shared by others on this site, I'd simply like to point out the long-term support on the Oil/Gold ratio. It seems like WTI will test it's trend-line when this ratio hits its 1993/1998/2009 lows.
FX:USOILLong
by ABRAK75
6