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WTI-OIL

USOIL Potential for Bearish Dip | 28th AprilWe are expecting price to dip from sell entry level of 102.73 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.82 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below Ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by FXCM
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULLISH PREDICTIONSBoth WTI and BRENT Crude Oil benchmarks rose in price on Tuesday (26th of April) after China announced that it will support its economy in case of a lockdown and the fears of diminishing demand have been eased. If the rally continues it will most likely test its previous high at 109.5, in the opposite scenario, the price might test its support at 99.3 MACD and RSI are showing a slow down of the bullish trend from the last few hours, but with eased lack of demand fears the price might return its momentum. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by legacyFXofficial
Bearish WTIHello Traders On Saturday I posted this idea already The price did not break out of the big triangle yet (as I mentioned in the last idea), but there is a smaller triangle I did not mention where the price did break out last week. Friday night the price was testing the triangle resistance and pushed down. Yesterday it broke out off the bearish flag and is now testing the resistance at 9700 again, plus a hidden bearish divergence on H1 has emerged. It looks like the price will close under the H1 100 EMA. If, then there is a big chance for more downside momentum. A close below the big triangle bottom will give more downside pressure till 8800 maybe till 7600 if it breaks through the support at 8800. Here are some fundamentals: - Chinese Covid woes. The lockdown in Shanghai (China’s largest city) is putting a cloud over oil’s demand prospects. - US production is expected to slowly but surely increase over the coming months. Traders should continue to monitor global inventory levels, production and the situation in Shanghai. Good trades!
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FiXTUX
USOIL: Divergence in the slow stochastics (monthly)We have already seen about 25% decline from the $130 top in March 2022. However looking at the monthly chart, we might be in the middle of further decline. Notice the divergence of slow stochastics indicated in the chart, so we should be aware of further risk of decline with a strong support around $65 area. 2 interesting facts as of today: - Interestingly MACD of weekly charts of Crude Oil Inverse ETFs, say HOD, are showing a possibility of trend change. - Crude Oil future contracts are in backwardation. (Yahoo! finance would be a nice tool to see this.)
TVC:USOILShort
by Tomatrader-X
Historical oil movementLet's be practical. 4 times ONLY since 2008 projection of downside was above $50 of movement as a true possibility. 2008 2014 2018 2020 And now. Connecting weekly lows many times is underestimated by traders. Shoring USOIL from the weekly breakout down December 2019 allowed swing traders to enjoy tens of dollars of movement within a week to weeks. During July 2008, close to $100 down was a catch made by traders in just 8 weeks. Oil at current levels is overpriced and stretched. Currently, a weekly close below highlighted square area currently ongoing, would confirm very high probability of similar downside potential as the previous 4 times 2008, 2014, 2018 and 2020. A rising wedge pattern stretched over a year of movement, which is bearish, appears on chart. 2 horizontal levels of 38, 63 are realistic targets within weeks. Fundamental support to the simple technical idea shown is Joe Biden suggesting 1 Million barrels a day in supply. Major oil corporations also hold similar capabilities (Canada, Gulf area). Do your own research and make a calculated decision if you decide to trade the idea. Thank you.
TVC:USOILShort
by Exactus
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line): That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence. On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
Skyrocketing Oil Prices Spark Fears Of A Global RecessionBuyers in the West are shunning Russian oil, sparking fears of a potential supply shortage. Some experts are warning that pulling Russian oil off the market could result in a global economic downturn. "Every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an oil price spike, and it is déjà vu all over again.” The more Russian oil supply comes off the market in the coming months, the higher the chances of a global recession later this year, economists and analysts have started to warn since Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago. The latest warning came this week from two economists from the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Should a large part of Russia's energy exports remain off the market throughout this year, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable, Lutz Kilian and Michael D. Plante wrote in an analysis on Tuesday. The analysis also warned that this slowdown could be more protracted than the 1991 recession following the oil supply shock from Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. This oil supply shock crisis is different from previous ones because it's not the result of a war in a major-oil producing country but rather the refusal of many banks to back transactions in Russian oil, Dallas Fed economists noted. Buyers, especially in the West, are shunning trade with Russian oil, tanker rates for Russian destinations shot up to record levels, also because of the war premium for vessels in the Black Sea. Then there is mounting public pressure on companies not to involve themselves with the Russian oil cargo trade anymore. Such was the case with supermajor Shell, which was slammed for buying a cargo from Russia and later apologized for this as it announced it would immediately stop all spot purchases of Russian crude and shut its service stations, aviation fuels, and lubricants operations in Russia. Oil tanker rates for Russian destinations rose to record levels, reflecting public pressure on oil companies to avoid purchasing Russian oil, fear of official sanctions on Russian energy exports at a later date and attacks on vessels in the Black Sea. This outcome was largely unanticipated, as U.S. and European Union sanctions originally deliberately excluded Russian energy exports," the Dallas Fed's economists wrote. There's a general consensus among analysts that soon, around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil may not make it to the market. "If the bulk of Russian energy exports is off the market for the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable. This slowdown could be more protracted than that in 1991," Kilian and Plante say. Since there isn't much that other oil producers can offer in terms of immediate supply, and the two countries with enough spare capacity—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have so far signaled an unwillingness to fill the gap, a shortage of supply is to be expected. "Unless the Russian petroleum supply shortfall can be contained, it appears necessary for the price of oil to increase substantially and to remain elevated for a long period to eliminate the excess demand for oil," the economists at the Dallas Fed wrote. "This demand destruction is likely to be assisted by the recessionary effect of higher natural gas prices and other commodity prices, especially in Europe," they added. Last week, Moody's Analytics said in a report on the Fed's first interest rate hike since the end of 2018 that "Most of our probability of recession models suggest that the odds of a recession in the next 12 months have risen recently." "Russia's invasion of Ukraine could cause a recession. The principal channel through which it impedes the global economy is energy prices," Chris Lafakis, Director at Moody's Analytics, wrote. "Every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an oil price spike, and it is déjà vu all over again," Lafakis added. Still, analysts say that recession is not the most likely scenario, but the risks of such a slide in the global economy have risen considerably over the past month since Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's war in Ukraine has reshaped the economic outlook, with lower global GDP expected now, but "the world economy has sufficient resilience to avert a recession," IHS Markit said in an analysis on Tuesday. Recession this year "is not the most likely scenario, but obviously the risks of recession have risen quite considerably," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday. "I'd put the risk of recession now in the next 12 months, at least one in three. That's uncomfortably high," Zandi added, but noted that the most likely scenario is slowing growth, not outright recession.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
USOIL WTI Crude Oil TrendlineIf you haven`t bought the $94 pullback: Then you should know that USOIL in on a bullish trendline for this summer. UBS laid out three reasons for its $125 USOIL this summer: 1. Russian oil exports hurt by sanctions, which will further tighten global supplies. 2. Spare capacity brought in by OPEC is less than 2% of global demand. 3. Global oil demand still heading for record highs with Europeans and Americans returning to normal travel patterns once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
3
WTI @ Crispy Potato12/03/2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 = 40/60 bull/bear probability COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = DAYS WEEK 1 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NEUTRAL PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = Neutral no call Week 2 of March was bear. After Friday the prior week, it opened bull but finished with a decent northward facing tail. Tuesday's bull candle is inside Mondays tail. Wednesday a large engulfing candle developed is a bear breakout price action. Volume on this day was the greater (note volume the last two weeks exceeds all previous volumes. Thursday and Friday were settling days, volume beginning to return to normal. The OBV is in a full bull rally. One would assume this could be a bear retracement, because it's at a peak and there is no fakey, it is a solid candle. This coming week will inform us of the direction, it needs increased selling volume to give a bear direction, else this will slowly but steadily rise in price. There is a probability between Mon-Wed we see a pin par that touches the 100. WEEK WEEK 1 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = Bear This week was a bear, with exceptional volume. The angle is very steep, it is likely it will need to retrace back to the previous trending bull rally range. Expect this week to settle around the $100 before setting its next rally MONTH FORECAST MTH MARCH = BULL Sizable bull candle body with 1.2 times tail to the north. Clear of the previous resistance level this chart is now bull led by their influence. OBV now trends BULL another confirmation of BULL-dominated influence. The chart looks to have commenced a BULL rally.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by eatmycrispypotato
Oil rising be ready to sellAs war drums are beating and WW3 may be on the verge of becoming a new reality, oil is ripping the faces off of people shorting it. It's also ripping your wallet apart. I expect a sell-off at some point if it continues at this rate but probably not before making new all-time highs above $150/ barrel. I expected XLE to get to $135 over the next 4-5 years but now it climbing very quickly ut I believe that is short-term. I may be taking some profits around the $100 mark as I expect government control to come in. I am not sure what that will look like yet but if it is a subsidized market whether cash in people's pockets or giving money to oil companies to keep the price low, that's inflation so I expect those stock prices to continue to rise. In the short term, you can hear the negative talk that may trash these stock prices which is exactly why I want to be taking profits at technical places and be ready to buy on these bottoms. XLE oil WTI
AMEX:XLELong
by DefyingFinance
25
OIL/USD Profit Taking UpdateOil reversed sharply from $116 to $108 when it was reported that Iran nuclear deal could bring Iran's Oil production back into the world supply if they give up Nuclear weapons. We had initially talked about selling $120 but it began early and now is not simple to sell these levels which are much less oversold and is a different sort of trade to a quick smash and grab profit taking sell off. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:OILUSDShort
by easyMarkets
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders top on the Megaphone?I haven't updated my WTI Oil thesis since the start of the month when I first started calling for a potential market top and a stop to buying activity. Well this top may have been formed now as WTI has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, right at the top (with the Head actually slightly above it) of the Megaphone pattern. Also that took place exactly on the Ichimoku Squeeze which was a marker for the prior Higher High of the Megaphone on October 25 2021. On top of all that, the 1D RSI got rejected, in fact made a Double Top rejection exactly on its 77.00 Resistance, which made the rejections of the two previous Higher Highs of the Megaphone on July 05 and October 25 2021. I am expecting the price to start pulling back this week or by next the latest (depending of course on the Ukraine conflict) and correct towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3